Direct news: President Biden, who has long expressed his intention to cancel some of the tariffs imposed on China during the Trump administration, has been hesitant to make a final decision. What do you think is the reason behind this?
Special commentator Liu Heping: In my previous comments, I have said that the trade frictions with China, especially the tariff frictions provoked by Trump, are not only irresponsible, but also harmful to others and self-inflicted. While it has caused troubles to China's economy, it has also caused the United States to suffer losses no less than China's, because 93% of these tariffs have been borne by American consumers. This is one of the important reasons for the current high inflation in the United States. .
At the same time, the frictions provoked by Trump have not only failed to achieve the purpose of reducing China's exports to the United States and returning manufacturing to the United States, but they have also failed to achieve the purpose of forcing China to abandon its own economic system. After several years of trade friction, Everything seems to be business as usual. China's exports to the United States have increased instead of decreasing, and so has the U.S. trade deficit.
However, under this circumstance, since Biden took office more than a year ago, he has almost abolished the policies enacted during the Trump administration, including restricting immigration, withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement, withdrawing from the United Nations Human Rights Council, and withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Agreement. Among all the unreasonable domestic and foreign policies, the policy of imposing tariffs on China that harms others and does not benefit oneself has been retained.
In this regard, public opinion generally believes that this is because on the issue of tariff reduction and exemption for China, Biden not only faces opposition from Congress and Republican , as well as different opinions from allies, there are even fierce differences within the White House. Among them, Treasury Secretary Yellen is a firm supporter of the abolitionist party, while trade negotiator Dai Qi is a firm opponent of the abolitionist party. However, I think these are all excuses deliberately sought by the Biden administration. It is not even ruled out that Yellen and Dai Qi are deliberately playing a double act to create the illusion of "huge opposition within the United States and the White House."
You must know that the tariff issue is entirely within the scope of the president's power. The increase in tariffs imposed on China was the result of Trump's insistence and was not discussed within Congress or even the White House. This means that there is no decision on whether to cancel the tariffs. Regarding the tariffs imposed by China, Biden can make the final decision on his own against all opinions. Therefore, the real reason why the Biden administration is hesitant on this matter is still to use the cancellation of some of the additional tariffs imposed on China as a bargaining chip to contain or even blackmail China in order to achieve certain political and economic goals.
So what is the purpose of this? According to Dai Qi, the goal is to allow China to implement necessary structural reforms and change the "state command economy" model so that China and the United States can achieve so-called truly fair competition. I think this was just the idea of the Biden administration three months ago. The real idea now is to use the removal of some tariffs on China as bait to lure or catch China and prevent China from getting closer to Russia. This is a sophisticated plan. The real goal that Biden wants to achieve is also Biden’s top priority.
Direct News: In your opinion, how should China respond to Biden’s attempt to use tariff reductions and reductions to prevent China and Russia from getting closer?
Special commentator Liu Heping: A few days ago, Biden himself announced in person that he would soon have a phone call with China’s top leader to discuss the issue of tariffs against China. But yesterday he changed his tune and said the time for the phone call between the two parties was still undetermined. In response to this question, Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that there is currently no information to provide, but it needs to be emphasized that it is very important for the heads of state of China and the United States to maintain exchanges, and the details should be jointly agreed by both parties through diplomatic channels. , and create favorable conditions and atmosphere for this purpose.
The political signal behind this is that, first, Biden really wants to use the tariff issue as a bargaining chip and wants to exchange something from China. The two sides are currently engaged in a fierce game over this; second, Wang Wenbin said , this matter should be approved by both parties The implication is that the two sides should first negotiate through diplomatic channels and then the two heads of state make an announcement to the outside world, instead of having to negotiate in person; third, Wang Wenbin said that it is necessary for the two countries to The subtext behind the president's call to create favorable conditions and atmosphere is that in this matter, the United States should stop making small moves that harm others and do not benefit itself.
In my personal opinion, the reason why China adopts such an attitude is that the Sino-US trade friction itself was initiated by the United States, and the imposition of additional tariffs on China was committed during the Trump administration. It is a mistake that is harmful to others and not self-serving. The mistake made by the United States should be corrected by the United States on its own initiative; secondly, in this matter, the most urgent thing should be to pay homage to The United States is currently facing the threat of high inflation that has been rare in more than 40 years. The American people are complaining about this, and it has seriously affected Biden's own public support rate and the upcoming Democratic Party's midterm elections; thirdly, in To solve the current problem of high inflation, the only means the Biden administration can use is to reduce or reduce some or even all of the tariffs imposed on China. Other factors, such as supply chain disruptions caused by the epidemic, are beyond the Biden administration's control. .
What is particularly noteworthy is that the deadline for Trump to impose additional tariffs on China will expire on July 6 and August 23 this year. By then, the Biden administration will have to face the question of whether to extend or cancel it. choose.
From this we can also see that the initiative on whether to cancel the additional tariffs imposed on China seems to be in Biden's hands, but this is just an illusion. The real initiative has been transferred to China. On hand. At least China can adopt a detached attitude of "love will not diminish, but will do as it pleases".
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen TV's "Live Broadcast of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"
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