After long calls, the census data finally came out.
has been settling for a few days. I dug some data and shared it with you.
The family structure is changing to a core structure
When the census data comes out, everyone’s attention may be focused on the birth rate and population structure.
Actually there is another interesting data, which is the number of households and the average number of people per household.
- According to the fourth census in 1990, there were 276.94 million households, with an average of 3.96 people per household.
- According to the fifth census in 2000, there were 348.37 million households, with an average of 3.44 people per household.
- According to the sixth census in 2010, there were 401.52 million households, with an average of 3.1 people per household.
- According to the seventh census in 2021, there are 494.16 million households, with an average of 2.62 people per household.
As can be seen from the picture above, before this statistics came out, although the average household population was shrinking, it had always been above
The shrinking family size is of course inseparable from the current low fertility level. But it is mainly due to the rapid increase in the number of households in and . Combining the marriage registration data announced by the Civil Affairs Bureau, we can draw a clearer conclusion:
- The number of registered marriages in the first decade of this century was 91.88 million couples
- Registration in the second decade of this century The number of marriages is 118.92 million.
Little Luotuo first excluded all situations such as single households, divorce, and family demise, and made a simple and crude calculation:
In the first decade of this century,
Overall, fewer and fewer young people live with their parents, instead choosing to start their own businesses..
In fact, the reason is not difficult to understand. One of the main reasons is the increasingly frequent population movement. Young workers have left their hometowns and gone to work and live in other cities.
Judging from the data of this census, the reduction in the proportion of living together and the change in the traditional family structure have directly brought about a problem -
- Only children who are not with their parents face multiple pressures. Who will take care of their parents?
A deep aging society is coming
Here I can’t help but bring up the commonplace issue of population aging.
Although the current population size is still growing, the growth rate is getting slower and slower.
Source: Seventh Census Bulletin
Some experts predict that China’s population will experience negative growth in five years.
According to the results of the Seventh Census, the population structure is indeed not optimistic:
- There are 190 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 13.5%, an increase of 4.53 compared with the Sixth Census %
- The population aged 115-59 is 890 million, accounting for 63.3%, decreased by 6.79%
What does this number mean? According to the standards of and the United Nations :
html The population over 165 accounts for 7%-14%, which is mild aging
4%-20%, which is moderate aging
In other words, China has already entered an aging society, and has one foot in the middle Aging is on the edge of , and it is expected that the aging population in the future will not enter a plain, but a plateau.
Longevity will also become a risk
It can be seen with the naked eye that there are more and more elderly people. In the past 2015 to the end of 2019, the average life expectancy of Chinese residents increased from 76.3 years to 77.3 years, which means that it has increased by one year in only 4 years. Assuming that this trend continues, in another 50 years, the average life expectancy will be almost 90 years old, and centenarians will not be uncommon.
Many people may not realize that longevity can also be a risk, because longevity means that in the days without income, no one knows when they will retire.
Maybe he is 80 years old, maybe he is 90 years old, or he may be 100 years old. Maybe for a long time, the old man cannot take care of himself and needs to live under the care of others.
As mentioned before, the size of families is becoming smaller, there are more and more families with elderly people living alone, it is obviously unrealistic for only children who are already struggling to gain a foothold in the city to take care of the elderly in another city.
In Japan, there is a kind of "caretaker killing". Family members who take care of patients or family members cannot bear the pain of long-term care and kill their own family members with their own hands. According to reports, on average, one such "caretaker homicide" case occurs every eight days in Japan.
Similar incidents have occurred in China. The issue of elderly care in the context of aging is indeed a serious challenge.
The dilemma of old age before getting rich
Some people in the industry also joked that in the next few decades, except for medical care and elderly care, which are sunrise industries, all others will be sunset industries.
The dilemma of China’s elderly care is that gets old before getting rich. On the one hand, there are massive gaps in quality nursing staff. On the other hand, the occupancy rate of some nursing homes is not enough to support their continued operations.
This is determined by the payment ability of the Chinese elderly. Due to low affordability, the quantity and quality of elderly care services are at a low level.
Take nursing homes as an example. The monthly cost of a nursing home in Guangzhou is 7,500 yuan, which is indeed a huge expense in the long run.
Not to mention the sharp increase in medical expenses for the elderly. A person's medical expenses after the age of 65 may account for 70% of his or her lifetime medical expenses, and 18% of the elderly account for 80% of the medical expenses.
Insufficient pension funds have become another major risk
On the other side of the scale, pension funds are seriously insufficient. Although pensions have been rising for 17 consecutive years some time ago, we can all see a trend, that is:
- The proportion of the elderly population is increasing, and more and more people are receiving pensions
- Working population The proportion has decreased, and fewer and fewer people are paying.
The "China Pension Actuarial Report 2019-2050" released by the Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts that the cumulative balance of the national enterprise employee basic pension insurance fund will be exhausted in 2035.
Even if you have a pension, it may not be able to meet your living needs. The gradually declining pension replacement rate in recent years illustrates the problem.
The so-called pension replacement rate refers to the ratio of pension to pre-retirement income. This means that if your pre-retirement income is 10,000, your pension is likely to be only 5,000. As a result, it will be difficult to maintain the original quality of life, and either the quality of life will be reduced or the income will be increased.
You have to rely on yourself to support your retirement.
Looking at it this way, the implementation of delayed retirement is indeed imperative.
It is not difficult to understand why the 14th Five-Year Plan mentioned the need to develop the third pillar of pension insurance. The so-called third pillar pension insurance is the personal pension system in addition to pension insurance and corporate supplementary annuities. To put it bluntly, it means saving for your own retirement.
Commercial pension insurance is one of the third pillars.
Little Luotuo once wrote in "How to save money that can't be spent in 10 years?" 》Written on the case of pension planning, if we put a sum of money into it when we are still young, we can receive a sum of money from it every year after retirement, and we can receive it for life.
Take an annuity insurance that performs well on the market as an example. Assume that a 34-year-old woman saves 80,000 yuan every year. From the age of 60, she can receive 61,000 yuan from the annuity insurance every year.
If you receive it until the age of 85, you can still leave millions of assets to your children and grandchildren.
If you can receive it until the age of 105, you will receive a total of 2.76 million, which is equivalent to
Pension annuity can provide a lifetime of cash flow . As long as you keep it for a while, it can support you for a lifetime, and you don’t have to worry about running out of money in old age.
As far as Little Luotuo himself is concerned, he has actually given up hope on pensions for a long time. If you have a pension, that's fine. If you don't have one, then you have to rely on yourself.
In the future, we must embrace a world of uncertainty and longevity. If you want to maintain a good life in old age, you must make good plans for yourself and your family when you are young.
reference data:
.https://www.huxiu.com/article/426019.html
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