In Shanghai, "A dozen salesmen refused to issue orders for 25 days. I have never encountered this in 17 years of working." In Shenzhen, "When there is no business, some agents will not go to the store at all, and the store door will be locked directly."

Shanghai, "More than a dozen salesmen have not issued orders for 25 days. I have never encountered this in 17 years of working." In Shenzhen, "When there is no business, some agents will not go to the store at all, and the store door will be locked directly." Several real estate agents from the main areas of first-tier cities did not shy away from interviews with reporters from " Daily Economic News ". The evidence from

data is that compared with the beginning of the year, Shanghai's second-hand housing transaction volume has dropped by more than 70%; Shenzhen's second-hand commercial housing transaction area dropped by 66.42% year-on-year in October, and the number of second-hand housing transfers was the lowest since March 2012.

The intermediary industry has begun to consolidate, freeze, close stores, merge, lay off employees, resign... The number of stores in some places has dropped from one street during the boom last year to only two now.

In the context of continued in-depth market adjustments, the performance of some intermediary listed companies has also declined. According to the third quarter report of shell in 2021, the company's operating income has declined year-on-year, the total transaction volume has dropped by more than 20% compared with the same period last year, and net profit has suffered its first loss in the past two years; Fangduoduo has achieved a cumulative operating income of 862 million yuan in the first three quarters, year-on-year. dropped by 52.9%, and the net loss expanded to 599 million yuan.

Centaline Real Estate issued an internal document saying: "Affected by the continued market downturn, in order to retain core resources to survive the cold winter, the group has decided to adjust the scale and structure of its mainland business. All branches must make appropriate contractions based on their own operating conditions, and the target will be reached in the fourth quarter. Breaking even."

The manager of the main store of Shanghai's leading agency: the bleakest period in the past 10 years

Since the second half of this year, the national second-hand housing market has collectively turned downward, with transaction volume declining rapidly for many consecutive months. Many hot cities have tightened controls and introduced policies such as second-hand housing price guides and purchase restrictions. In addition, the credit environment continues to tighten. Starting from the third quarter, "difficulties in lending" have become more and more common in many cities, including Shanghai. , the market transaction cycle is getting longer and longer, and the job of second-hand housing agents is becoming more and more difficult, and has even reached the bleakest moment in the past 10 years.

"Daily Economic News" reporters recently visited many areas in Shanghai and found that there were more intermediaries setting up temporary stalls on the street carrying signs, and half of the work stations in many intermediary stores were idle.

In a conversation with the staff at a leading intermediary store in the Ruihong section of Hongkou District, they said that so far this month (November 24) not a single house has been sold.

"No matter how tight the regulations were in the past, even during the Chinese New Year, the performance would not be so bad. This may be the bleakest period in the past 10 years." Store manager Zhang Hua said.

In fact, several other stores in the section also posted zero prices, and no one had any business. Zhang Hua told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that she has been working as a real estate agency for 17 years and has never experienced such a difficult "Golden Nine and Silver Ten".

Zhang Hua said frankly that the Ruihong sector is considered an area with relatively active transactions in Hongkou District and even Shanghai. In the past, about 100 second-hand houses were sold in the entire sector every month. In the past two to three months, the average monthly transaction volume has been only about 40 units, and the sales have more than halved. This means that many intermediary stores in the sector only have one or two sales per month, or even 0.

"One of our stores has closed 4 sales this month, but these 4 sales are for real estate in the suburbs of Wujiaochang , Liangcheng and even Minhang , not in the main theater."

On Changshou Road, Putuo District, a In the square in front of an office building, there are many parents who accompany their children to music and art classes every weekend, so the surrounding real estate agents come to set up temporary spots with billboards.

"The average price has dropped a lot, and the price of several houses has dropped by 1 million yuan, which is equivalent to a unit price drop of 10,000 yuan." Zhou Lixia, who is slightly shy, said, "But there are not many houses, and there are not many people buying houses. , so we put the sign up so that everyone can learn more.”

Shanghai’s transaction data is also consistent with Zhang Hua and Zhou Lixia’s intuitive feelings. According to Centaline Real Estate data, in January 2021, Shanghai set a record for second-hand housing transactions with a maximum of 44,000 units. In June, it still exceeded 20,000 units, but fell back to 12,000 units in September and 13,000 units in October.

As for the reason for the sudden drop, Zhang Hua said that on the one hand, the price of first- and second-hand houses was seriously upside down. The price of newly opened Internet celebrity listings in the surrounding area was limited to 110,000 to 120,000 yuan/square meter, but the listing price of second-hand houses and sub-new houses They are all between 140,000 and 150,000 yuan/square meter, and buyers with high points will go to the lottery to get a new one; on the other hand, the tightening of personal loans has directly extended the transaction cycle indefinitely, and some replacement customers have even given up on the transaction.

The impact of price limits on new homes can only affect a certain area, while the tightening of personal loans will have a greater impact on real estate transactions in Shanghai as a whole. Zhang Hua showed reporters a work diary from July, in which the words "watch Sister Chen for loans" appeared many times, which seemed to show the extreme anxiety and difficulty at that time.

"This phenomenon actually appeared in June, and bank loans were getting slower and slower." Zhang Hua said, "The previous transaction process took almost 2 months from the time the order was placed to the loan. If the customer did not get a loan and the seller did not get a loan, it would be even worse. Quickly, the entire transaction is completed in about 10 days. Now if the customer wants a loan, the entire transaction cycle will be at least half a year or even longer if it is a serial purchase. If you want to change, the previous one still has to wait for his previous one, and the next one will have another one. It’s really a long way to go. "

" More than a dozen salesmen don’t issue orders for 25 days. I have never encountered this in 17 years of work. . In the past, the 'first prize' set before the 5th of every month, with a bonus of 200 yuan, must have been claimed before the 10th, but now (November) no one has received it on the 25th," Zhang Hua said. .

Intermediary Street in Nanshan District, Shenzhen: there are only two small stores left

It’s not just Shanghai. From July 15 last year, eight departments including the Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau jointly issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the City's Real Estate Market" to the "Notice on Establishing a Reference Price Release Mechanism for Second-hand Housing Transactions" on February 8 this year. , Shenzhen’s property market has experienced a series of careful regulation.

The market has experienced ups and downs after digesting previous regulations. Finally, after financial policies gradually followed the reference prices of second-hand housing transactions in April and May this year, the Shenzhen property market collapsed.

According to data from the Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, the transaction volume of second-hand commercial housing in Shenzhen in October 2021 was 180,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 63.30%; of which the transaction area of ​​second-hand commercial housing was 150,400 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 66.42%, and a month-on-month decrease of 11.2%. The number of second-hand housing transfers in October was the lowest since March 2012.

The Nanshan District Science and Technology Park area, which has made headlines in the property market for many times due to new homes entering the market, is a hot spot for new and second-hand home transactions in Shenzhen, and is also a must-have for all large and small intermediaries.

There is a famous intermediary street near the Hi-Tech Park subway station. When the market was booming last year, intermediary stores of various colors blossomed everywhere. In the evening after get off work on November 23, when a reporter from "Daily Economic News" visited again, there were only two red intermediary stores left on the street.

The door of one of the larger stores is open, the store is brightly lit, but the front desk is unattended. The reporter walked into the store and tried to inquire, but found that there was no one there, and there was also a thin layer of dust on the area where the business card box was placed outside the front desk table.

Just when the reporter wanted to go to another smaller store diagonally opposite the store for an interview, a clerk wearing a suit and a work badge was standing in the shared bicycle area a few meters away from the store entrance, peeling chestnuts and eating them. During the conversation with the reporter, he told the reporter that the current market is not good, the business volume is not high, and some colleagues have stopped coming to the store.

Not only did his colleagues stop coming to the store, but in less than a year, he also watched the intermediary stores of other companies around him evacuate one by one.

"Our store can survive, firstly, because the store is small and the rental cost is low; secondly, there are not many people in it. At the peak, there were eight or nine people, but now there are four or five people left."

"We are pretty good", yes The chestnut peeling agent said the most frequently during the conversation. Although sometimes he is the only one here, their store can still open every day, but as far as he knows, other areas cannot even guarantee that stores will be open every day.

"When there is no business, some agents will not go to the store at all, and the store door will be locked. Now that the market is not good, the company will not be very strict.Talking about the recent work situation, the agent sighed and said that after the second-hand house trading system was liberalized, the focus of work was on the system for signing sales agreements with owners. “Now it is impossible to transaction second-hand houses. It is too difficult. Companies started asking us to help with their customers. ”

“Live”

After visiting a number of real estate agency stores in many areas of Shanghai, the reporter found that during working hours, the workstations in many agency stores were empty, with only one or two staff members remaining in office.

Zhang Hua said that due to work allocation, the 1.5 stores she manages currently have about 15 employees, with an average of about 25 in the past year. In the past, the maximum number was 50 or 60 employees. "The main reason for staff turnover. Or the trading volume is too low and the performance is greatly affected.

Lu Wenxi, a market analyst at Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate , told the "Daily Economic News" reporter: "Emotionally, the previously overly pessimistic mood has stabilized slightly. After all, recent statements on credit have made the market a little more reassured." However, judging from the actual transaction situation, the second-hand housing market is already operating at a low level, which is almost 40% of the normal flow. In other words, the market flow is small and it does not require so many people to serve it. Therefore, it is a fact that intermediary stores have shrunk and some people have changed careers. "

Under such circumstances, Zhang Hua and his colleagues are thinking about how to "survive" themselves until next year, or even longer, until the transaction demand is really released.

And in the matter of "survive" In fact, the "Pocket Store" gave an answer. The reporter learned during the interview. , in this round of in-depth regulation, it is the smaller "pocket stores" that can survive.

Hua Qi is the owner of several intermediary stores in Shenzhen. At the beginning of this year, he partnered with a friend to open another store in the central area of ​​Nanshan. A new intermediary store was opened. However, not long after the new store opened, he encountered a second-hand housing dealer in Shenzhen. Due to the reference price policy, new stores are struggling to operate, and old businesses have to slowly shrink.

When talking about this year’s business, Hua Qi’s first sentence was that he was lucky not to choose the big store on the street. This is okay. I only invested 20,000 to 30,000 yuan in the early stage, so I can survive it.

In the intermediary industry, stores are divided into flagship stores and "pocket stores". Flagship stores refer to large stores with an area of ​​80 to 100 square meters, and there are correspondingly more agents in the store, while "pocket stores" refer to the total area of ​​the store. There are about 5 small shops of brokers in the store, covering an area of ​​30 to 50 square meters. The new store of ml1 Nanshan District is considered a "pocket store". There is a table that can seat two people in front of the welcome wall, which is regarded as the front desk; behind the welcome wall are several rows of desks and computers, which is the office area and the back. The storage room is separated by a row of shelves, and there is a tea room inside, which is reserved for Hua Qi and his partners to entertain friends and clients. The impact of the market on various regions is not the same. On the one hand, Huaxi is glad that it decided to open a "pocket store" at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, it is happy to open a "pocket store" in Nanshan . After the introduction of many consecutive policies, Huaqi has a negative impact on western Shenzhen. Much larger than the central part. He is in the west h. The three stores of tml1 and in Baoan District have been merged into one one after another. Even though the company does not have to pay social security, provident fund, etc. to the newly recruited agents, Huaqi is still tightly stuck with the inflow of personnel. "Let's wait and see when the market gets better."

The less I pay, the more I keep working overtime

Among the employees who are still working in Zhang Hua’s store, many have been working for more than 10 years. According to the reporter’s observation, they still joke around from time to time, but they have not stopped working.

“Everyone who is working now is here. They have experienced it in strong winds and waves, but many people have already quit voluntarily in the face of pressure. "

But even if the performance is zero, the workload of the agents has not been reduced at all. "The daily workload has increased many times. Even though the number of customers has been cut in half, our actual work is even more. "Zhang Hua said.

Under the current market situation, landlords are not in a hurry to sell anyway. For example, if a house is listed for 20 million yuan, the landlord can accept a certain price concession, but the customer's counteroffer is often lower than the landlord's bottom line, and some directly bargain by 8%. ~10%, but the landlord only allows 3%, which is difficult to achieve, so sometimes it is difficult to get a pair of sincere customers even after showing it 5 times.

"After my return visit, the main house buyers expected that housing prices will drop next year. They thought it would be 20,000 or 30,000 yuan lower than now. They took their time with the funds in hand to wait and see." Zhang Hua said, "Not long ago, A customer listed the house for 9.8 million yuan, and the buyer suddenly reduced it to 9 million yuan. Therefore, the customer may not really want to buy it. After the two parties negotiate, it is too difficult for one to insist on not lowering the price and the other to bargain casually. "

The result of short selling is that the community that was originally booming in transactions will The overall number of listings has also dropped sharply, with only 3 to 4 showings per week. So the brokers "fight hard" for performance.

According to Zhang Hua, everyone now works more than 12 hours a day, arriving at work at 8:30 in the morning, getting off work at 9:30 pm, and getting off work at 10:00 pm on Fridays and Saturdays, and from the 15th to the 30th in these months , basically no rest at all for half a month.

"Actually, they are under a lot of psychological pressure. They call the store every day and make appointments to see the house. But the less they pay bills, the more they keep working overtime. Even after working overtime, they still have no results, and the pressure increases day after day. The bigger the company gets, the more people will leave their jobs," Zhang Hua said frankly.

"Many people have given up in the face of difficulties, but among them there are still those who get up at 6:20 in the morning every day, work for 12 hours in a row, and even go without a break for more than half a month, so I think those who are still persisting are all Very impressive."

As a store manager, in addition to daily store manager tasks such as checking data and verifying transactions, due to the downturn in the market and poor overall performance, he also needs to return to visit all employees to see their cases. "If there are 50 groups of visitors in this area a week, each employee may be in 3 or 4 groups, but I have to call and visit all 50 customers. This work will take a lot of time."

In addition In addition, Zhang Hua began to actively transform to digital marketing.

"We must learn self-media, and we must conduct online promotion, including some live broadcasts. We basically shoot various properties from 10:00 to 12:00 in the morning, and then come back to handle some work, and continue shooting in the afternoon , and spend the rest of the time arranging meetings with customers, or helping customers with some trivial inquiries until get off work. "

" So everyone actually works. It’s still quite hard, and I’m not saying that I should just settle down because the environment is not good. I still have to find ways to improve myself, follow the trend and learn some new things. If the market is in an overall downturn, I should improve my internal skills and face it more actively. " Zhang Hua said with a smile, if 1x the workload doesn't work, then 2x, and if 2x doesn't work, then 3x. It's like spending the winter, but the workload may be 5 times as much as before, and even then it's not as much as the previous one. Partial harvest.

The dilemma faced by real estate agents may not be gone away in the short term. Lu Wenxi said: "Judging from recent management statements, the tone of regulation of the property market will not change. Even if the market is 'recovery' next year compared to the second half of this year, the overall situation will not be optimistic. It is expected that the transaction volume in Shanghai will be 12,000 per month for most of the time." ~15,000 units fluctuated.”

“Check out the track for long-term rental apartments”

Perhaps it is precisely because of the high-level decision to cut back on food and clothing that the mobility of personnel in the industry has been reduced a lot. Lang Kun is a middle-level manager of a large intermediary that just entered Shenzhen last year. His store is near Pingluan Mountain Park in Bao'an District.

may be new to Shenzhen and is in urgent need of market share and housing resources. In Luculent’s view, the company adopts a crowd tactic. Almost all stores are flagship stores of nearly 100 square meters or more than 100 square meters. Some stores The staffing capacity exceeds 40 people. If you want to seize market share when the market is hot and transactions are fast, this tactic may be effective.

However, shortly after entering, it encountered continuous regulation and experienced an unprecedented freeze period in Shenzhen's property market transactions. This tactic turned into a real drag. While Luculent was teasing the company's bad luck, he was also teasing himself.

"When we held the third quarter summary meeting, the company disclosed the bottom 10 stores in the entire region, and our store was among them. The company asked us to shrink our headcount. After all, we lost more than 1 million yuan in one store. So many brokers couldn't achieve results."

Lang Kun also left the store at this time. In his opinion, even as a manager, seven or eight thousand a month is not attractive to him, and for ordinary salesmen, There are only two or three thousand.

"If you can't stand it, try another track." The new track that Luculent is looking for is long-term rental apartments that require more refined operations and management. And in his own words, in such a market environment, long-term rental apartments are not suitable for long-term rental apartments. Not a bad job.

A real estate agency store in Shenzhen Photo by reporter Zhen Sujing

will still return to the real estate agency industry

The national real estate market is undergoing a major adjustment.

According to National Bureau of Statistics data, the GTV of the national new housing commercial housing market fell by 14.1% year-on-year in the third quarter. According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the GTV of the national second-hand housing market fell by 41.6% year-on-year in the third quarter.

In an environment where the market continues to undergo in-depth adjustments, the agents and businesses of some industry giants have also undergone adjustments. Taking Beike as an example, it was disclosed that as of the third quarter, the number of Beike agents was 515,500, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and a decrease of approximately 33,100 from the second quarter. According to the third quarter report data, the company's operating income fell year-on-year, the total transaction volume fell by more than 20% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit suffered its first loss in the past two years.

However, Shell Chairman Peng Yongdong believes that the third quarter performance reflects both the broad macro-environmental challenges faced by the industry and the resilience of the company's business. Although the total transaction volume in the quarter fell by 20% year-on-year, it still outperformed the market.

Hu Zhidan, general manager of Shenzhen Lianjia City, said frankly in an interview with a reporter from "Daily Economic News" that the current period is indeed at a low ebb. There are a group of people who choose to wait and see and wait in this cycle, and there are another group of people who are in this cycle. Practice various abilities here. In the short term, there may not be any difference in results between the two, but in the long term, the group of talents who sink their minds to practice and polish will be retained and firmly selected in the future.

As a regional leader, in addition to management work, Hu Zhidan also has to reassure store or industry personnel to insist on performance, which has become one of his daily considerations. Hu Zhidan said that he encourages everyone to have more confidence when the times are at a low point. We treat every owner and customer diligently with professionalism and service. Not only are the requirements for every detail not out of shape, but the standards are getting higher and higher. This is The source of our confidence.

Hu Zhidan said that the industry will definitely move forward in the future. The market will put forward more and higher requirements for our services, and we will continue to iteratively evolve ourselves following the development of the industry.

"I will still return to the real estate brokerage industry." When bidding farewell at the end of the interview, Luculent took the initiative to express his future work plan, "When the market gets better, people like us who are used to running the business can open up to tens of thousands of dollars." You can’t sit still in an office with a salary.”

Reporter’s Notes: It’s difficult! Disaster! Disaster!

No matter whether the water in the spring is warm or the water is cold in winter, the intermediaries who rush to the first transaction site are always the most sensitive. Regulation orders came one after another, and the property market came back from an overheated state. Starting from the third quarter, the new and second-hand housing markets in major urban agglomerations across the country have cooled down. The number of cities in which second-hand housing prices have fallen has hit new highs, and the number of transactions has hit new lows.

The intermediary that had just experienced crazy transactions suddenly changed its style in the second half of the year. On the one hand, there was the hesitation and waiting of home buyers under pessimistic expectations, and on the other hand, the landlords who were still unsatisfied were biting the price, making it difficult to facilitate transactions. In the fourth quarter, landlords began to take the initiative to lower prices, and when the sales deadlock was expected to be loosened, they were once again faced with a credit crunch. "Difficult" has become the most appropriate adjective for the intermediary industry in the second half of the year.

Fortunately, the once tight mortgage loan seems to be loosening. The central bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have stated that they will protect the credit needs of groups in urgent need, but at the operational level it is still difficult to provide relief in the short term. Will transactions continue to run at a low level? Will the second-hand housing market see a turnaround in 2022? Let’s wait and see.