What I wrote at the beginning -
On July 28, Beijing time, the United States released its first estimate of the annualized quarterly rate of GDP in the second quarter. Different from the previously expected growth of 0.5%, U.S. GDP fell by 0.9% year-on-year in the second quarter. GDP has declined for two consecutive quarters, and the United States has officially entered a "technical recession."
It is true that the criteria for defining an economic recession are not unique, but based on objective data and subjective feelings, US Treasury Secretary Yellen's remarks that "the US economy as a whole is still positive and improving" are increasingly like a cooked duck - just like a cooked duck. The rest is tough.
The war in Eastern Europe, The oil in the Middle East and , and the taxes in East Asia are not straw, but three real mountains that are pressing on the United States. If the situation remains unchanged, once a substantial economic recession occurs, no one will be able to save (or be willing to save) the United States this time.
So, on the first day when the United States fell into a "technical recession", Biden called.
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Let's first talk about and .
The day before the second quarter data was released, the United States raised interest rates for the fourth time this year. It can be seen that the inflation problem is still like a coffin lid that cannot be suppressed, making the Federal Reserve buzzing from top to bottom.
There is still more than a month before the legendary "most radical interest rate hike in history" in September, and there is still a deadline for the release of July CPI data. The market is generally not optimistic about the U.S. economic trend in the second half of the year. Trapped in interest rate hikes, inflation and economic recession, the United States is increasingly looking to resolve internal conflicts externally.
It’s good to have ideas, but you have to make them work.
Biden’s trip to the Middle East was full of failures. Trump even sarcastically said that under the leadership of Biden, the United States has become a "beggar country" - seeking energy relief from its former younger brother everywhere, and is not welcome everywhere.
The war situation in Eastern Europe is not as smooth as the United States expected. Although the harvest of Europe is in progress, the progress is far behind the rate of blood loss of the United States itself. After all, European capital has hundreds of years of foundation. If the United States wants to swallow up Europe, it cannot be accomplished overnight, and time is not on the side of the United States.
As for East Asia, the ball on the tariff issue has always been on the side of the United States. China is silently watching the United States' insistence on saving face and suffering. Who knows who feels uncomfortable? After all, the dual pressures of inflation and economic recession are not on our side.
The White House and Capitol Hill have not considered taking a more radical and risky path. The military-industrial complex liked this idea, but the Pentagon was busy helping the previous big guys delete posts to put out the fire - —It’s impossible. If you don’t want to, don’t talk nonsense.
二
The phone call made by the heads of state of China and the United States last night basically blocked the operating space for Pelosi to visit Taiwan. During the call, Biden proactively reiterated his stance on adhering to the one-China policy and not supporting Taiwan's independence.
Letting the United States speak such words is a victory for us at the diplomatic level. But diplomatic success is never about winning or losing in a battle of words. The large-scale confrontation over the East China Sea some time ago is the key to our increasingly tough words.
F-35 was closely contacted. The F-16 fleet of the US military stationed in Japan failed to contain the target fleet heading south. New people quietly came to Kadena and Guam Air Force Bases, and then in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone, they were attacked by a large-scale air force carrying live ammunition. The mixed formation blocked them tightly.
As for electromagnetic signal collection, radar irradiation, short-term full-frequency electronic shielding in local airspace, they are still playing before, there is nothing new, but the scale of the two sides' affairs always makes people feel that they will start directly in the next second. There is nothing against it...
Withdrawal is something you will slowly get used to after experiencing it for the first time. Compared with the humiliation in 2016, the slap in the face this time the US military encountered was simply a small scene. Our own people know their own affairs, and the US military fully knows that it is not ready for a war in the Taiwan Strait. But for the White House and Congress, they won’t give up until they give it a try.
Okay, I finished the trial, I feel at ease...
Then we began to see that there was a mystery in the press release -
Biden's words were only 130 words, which was enough to be posted on Weibo. But the top priority is the desire to maintain open dialogue, avoid misunderstandings and misjudgments, and properly manage differences.
Don’t expect diplomat to help you get it back from the negotiation table if you can’t get it on the battlefield (you may not be able to get it off). This sentence was first said by former U.S. President Richard Nixon in 1972 in reference to the Vietnam War. Now the silent thunder over the East China Sea has given it a new connotation of the times.
三
As reality repeatedly hits the face, the small goals the United States has set for itself have to retreat again and again. The Middle East has not been negotiated, and oil prices are driven by nature. If we want to control domestic prices, the only way left is to lower tariffs and restore the supply chain.
During the call, Biden said that he would seek cooperation in areas where (China and the United States) interests converge. What are the areas where China and the United States have “combined interests”? Energy is one, but compared with Sino-US trade, the former is almost negligible.
The current problems in the United States are largely self-inflicted - determined by the relationship between supply and demand, most of the tariffs imposed by the United States fall on itself, and its own citizens pay for it, which also pushes up the price level in the United States. . Various supply curves, such as substituting Southeast Asian products for products made in China, are just cover-ups - OEM exports of Chinese manufacturing are no secret in Southeast Asia. In addition, the poor functioning of the international supply chain is also caused by the leadership of the United States. This stone also hits the Americans themselves in the foot.
Since the test in the East China Sea ended in failure, the relationship between China and the United States must at least return to the level before the trade war. The United States will take this path sooner or later.
It’s not as simple as restocking American supermarket shelves. The vitality of the U.S. economy lies externally in supply and internally in the stock market.
As I said before, time is not on the United States' side.
The stock market can tell stories, but just telling stories will sooner or later turn into accidents. If we continue to decouple from China and impose various restrictions on trade, once the U.S. economy is dragged into a substantial recession, what we have to consider is not when the U.S. will recover, but what to do with the high U.S. stock market.
was born in the United States in 1939. There are more than 8,000 superheroes in the Marvel universe, but none of them are named Receiver.
四
After making this phone call, the United States’ four-pronged exploration has come to an end. From another perspective, the United States may not have taken the initiative to stabilize China after the failure of its test, maintain a certain degree of strategic initiative, prevent the situation in East Asia from developing in a direction that is not conducive to itself, and free up its hands to operate in other directions.
At present, the US dollar’s interest rate hikes and the harvest of the world have begun to unfold. But Japan and South Korea are still of some use for the time being, India has too many thorns to prick the mouth, Southeast Asia is too thin and too woody, and 56 countries and regions in Africa are bundled together, which is not as meaty as sheep, scorpion, . It seems that only Europe is fat and not fat. greasy.
Since the Middle East cannot be talked about and East Asia cannot be attacked, the final direction of the sword must be returned to Europe. As for persimmons, you still have to pick big ones and pinch them softly.
Say it again, time is running out for the United States.
Before Europe collectively kneels down, the United States must deceive more money from Europe to the United States. This time point should be before November.
Otherwise, the first results will be seen after the mid-term elections. The Republican Party will definitely use this performance to show off everywhere. Biden and Pelosi are over 160 years old together. It is really annoying to have a double national funeral in the United States. (Happy Not (big) compensation for (general) loss (run).
五
What can I do to save you, Europe?
In a previous column, the writer said that under the coercion of the United States, IQ has never been able to occupy the high ground of European leaders. The British and American media have a lot of dirty information in their hands and are ready to throw it at European politicians who plan to compromise with Moscow.
The only thing the United States has to worry about now is whether its allies will break the pot and use magic to defeat magic.
Europe has a tradition of aristocracy. Over the past hundreds of years, numerous political and economic families have formed, including wealthy families. But now a group of valves and cannot solve a single valve.
The Nord Stream pipeline is pinching the vitality of Europe's natural gas . Russia is slowly overhauling it, and Europe's blood pressure is jumping at any time on the other side. Germany is not , Hungary is . Kneeling down does not require psychological construction at all. As the locomotive of the European economy, Germany needs to find a reason to kneel down, even if it makes the outrageous mother open the door to the outrageous one - it is outrageous.
can sanction Beixi 2 and that have not been put into production, but Beixi 1 must be liberalized, which is in line with Europe's democratic values.
Natural gas of the same origin and quality flows in different pipelines. Germany’s attitude perfectly explains the soul question of Xie Ruolin in "Latent" -
I have two gold bars here, can you tell me which one is Noble, which one is dirty?
Haha, I don’t even want to lose my face, what else can you do to me?
On the road to fighting magic with magic, Ukraine has obviously gone further.
Ukraine, which was held up as a moral high ground by Europe and the United States, began to resort to political correctness, and in turn turned against Europe and the United States. What is an epidemic? Who is considered a recession? You are not active in anti-Russia and have a problem with your stance. You are colluding with Russia! Quick, make money!
is still a familiar recipe and a familiar taste. The problem is that the target of Ukraine's accusation this time is the United States. This move "reply the enemy's way with the enemy's body" made the United States stunned for a moment.
Faced with the completely lost Zelensky , the United States is predictably furious - in the mid-term elections in November, the Democratic Party will most likely lose both houses of Congress. Republicans shouting "Hu Hansan is back again" will tear up the Ukraine aid bill and throw it into the sewer. At least 57 Republican congressmen have vowed to do this, and the tweets and posted by the most radical ones can almost only be displayed in mosaics.
六
History will remember the phone call Biden made last night. This not only represents the shift in offense and defense between China and the United States in this round of game, but also symbolizes that the United States has lost the courage to fight at all costs to change the situation.
In the past, extreme pressure, repeated horizontal jumps near the red line, and sausage-slicing tactics were used. As a side that still has the upper hand in overall strength, the cost of using such tactics is often very low. But the side effects and sequelae of doing so are huge, and now the first stage of the backlash has arrived.
The replacement of the old with the new will come sooner or later. Except for a few countries in the world, everyone is sitting on the wall waiting to see the results. Many people believe that the breaking point lies in the Taiwan Strait, but the United States has actively avoided it.
Avoiding battle will not only hurt the morale of one's own side, but also greatly consume the trust of allies.
In the next three months, Europe will continue to be in a state of turmoil, and all kinds of ceiling-breaking remarks and saucy operations will emerge one after another. The United States will continue to delve into the digital magic in the field of statistics, and won the Nobel Prize in Economics for answering the following questions -
Why is inflation like this? The manufacturing and service industries are in bad shape, but the unemployment rate in the United States is at All-time low?
skips the "willingness to work" threshold required for counting the unemployed population, and ignores the people who are unwilling to get up after receiving unemployment benefits. If the reality cannot be changed, then change the rules of the definition. American historical inventors will mass-produce more concepts: China's foreign trade data is useless, it is a boom-like recession, your country's pill; flooding the country with massive money printing is nothing, now we will experience the first recession-like prosperity in human history, The U.S. economy is about to take off again.
Okay, okay, as long as you are happy, don’t be disrespectful. Let China reduce its holdings of U.S. debt with "no economic sense" and reject the U.S.'s good intentions with "ignorance".
But NGOs and 1450 should stop forcing the writers to reflect, okay?
compare your heart.
The author of this article is a full-time writer of the Broken Wall Investigation Bureau: Emma and the Knight
Your attention and likes are our biggest motivation. The Broken Wall Investigation Bureau would like to thank you for your support. Reposting is also a love
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