At 10:44 pm on the 2nd, Beijing time, after Pelosi ’s visit to Taiwan became a reality, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army announced that it would carry out important inspections of the sea and airspace surrounding Taiwan from 12:00 on August 4 to 12:00 on the 7th. Military exercises and training operations, and organized live-fire firings. On August 7, the Eastern Theater Command Weibo announced the postponement of the military exercise at 12:36. On August 10, it announced that the joint military operation organized in the sea and airspace around Taiwan Island had been successfully completed, and clearly stated that it would be organized on a regular basis. War readiness patrols across the Taiwan Strait. If operations such as missiles flying overhead, fighter planes crossing the centerline of the strait, and warships approaching the coastline become routine, the island is likely to experience power and gas outages.
As we all know, Taiwan’s energy is almost completely dependent on imports, with an annual dependence rate of 97.7%. Although the island has increased its energy material reserves in recent years, for example, oil reserves have reached 150 days, and coal can be used for more than 30 days. , but natural gas is only enough for about ten days. If it is during the peak period of electricity consumption in summer, natural gas is only enough for a week.
Taiwan has also been actively undergoing energy transformation in recent years. However, the development of nuclear power and thermal power generation has been strictly restricted, and green power generation such as solar energy, photovoltaic , and wind power are not enough. Therefore, natural gas power generation has accounted for the main component. It is currently one-third, and it may reach 50% in two years. Therefore, once there is a problem with the supply of natural gas, it will inevitably lead to a serious shortage of power supply on the island, and a major blackout will be inevitable.
On March 3 this year, a large-scale power outage occurred throughout the island of Taiwan. It took more than 12 hours to restore power supply to some areas in southern Kaohsiung. Traffic lights in big cities such as Taipei were all shut down, and traffic was completely paralyzed. The convoy of former US Secretary of State Pompeo visiting Taiwan was also blocked on the road...
In addition to traffic being affected, economic activities were even more severely affected. TSMC has a nickname on the island called "Electricity Monster". The more advanced the semiconductor manufacturing process is now, the greater the electricity consumption, and the amount is astonishing. The TSMC 5-nanometer factory in Tainan consumes as much as 100% of the electricity in a day. 700,000 kilowatt-hours, which is greater than the daily consumption of 560,000 people in eastern Taiwan. TSMC also has a 3-nanometer factory to be put into production next year. It is said that the annual power consumption of the factory is as high as 7.7 billion kilowatt-hours, which is equivalent to Tainan area for one year. The total power consumption.
According to statistics, the electricity consumption of one TSMC company has accounted for 10% of the entire power supply on the island of Taiwan. If there is a power supply difficulty on the island, TSMC will directly become "Taiwan has no power" and will even stop production. TSMC is the core of Taiwan. As a pillar industry, this impact must be disastrous. The point is that TSMC accounts for more than half of the world's chip processing. Not only will the global supply chain be disrupted, chip prices will return to highs, and delivery times will be lengthened again.
Although all situations are developing towards the bad side, if it becomes an established fact that TSMC becomes "Taiwan has no power", who will be the biggest profiteer?
According to public information, there are 4 Taiwanese factories among the top ten wafer foundries in the world in 2021, namely TSMC, United Microelectronics , Power Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd., and World Advanced. If Taiwan falls into a power outage, 4 Taiwanese manufacturers will be sentenced to the " death penalty " together, and the second-ranked and Samsung will be transferred. At present, the most advanced mass production process in the world is 5nm. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. and South Korea's Samsung Electronics have launched related technologies and achieved mass production and shipment. They are the only players known to have broken through 5nm. The next process The breakthrough point is 3nm. TSMC has stated that it will start mass production in the second half of 2022. Samsung announced in June this year that it will start production of 3nm GAA architecture process technology chips. The competition for 3nm is secretly competing.
According to comprehensive media reports, AMD, NVIDIA, Marvell and Broadcom and other companies are all customers of TSMC. Apple is widely considered to be TSMC's largest customer, possibly accounting for 25% of TSMC's output. With such a big piece of meat, even a tenth of it would be enough for Samsung to have a "fat year".
But all things considered, TSMC is very important to the world. TSMC founder Chang Chung-mou once asserted that "TSMC is a battleground for geostrategic military strategists." It is no exaggeration to say that without TSMC, from the United States to China , from Apple to Xiaomi , from Tesla to Baidu , almost all technology companies have to stop business. More importantly, the chips in the US military's main battle weapons such as the F-35/ Javelin missile are actually produced by TSMC. Today, the revenue of chip companies has accounted for 0.5% of the global GDP. Note that it is global GDP. Therefore, cutting off power in Taiwan is absolutely a last resort.
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