Britain, Germany and the United States have successively approved the provision of main battle tanks to Ukraine , which has greatly boosted Ukraine's morale. Ukrainian government officials have repeatedly stated that they encourage the West to break through restrictions and that "nothing is impossible" in providing arms assistance to Ukraine. The most radical statement is, "Except for the nuclear weapon , there is nothing we can't get." Even the United States had to pour a lot of cold water on Ukraine's excessive optimism.
The British " Guardian " stated on the 25th that after the US Biden administration approved the supply of 31 M1 series main battle tanks to Ukraine, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said: "The Tank Alliance (to support Ukraine) has been established. All those who doubt this situation are now Now everyone understands: nothing is impossible for Ukraine and its partners. I call on all new partners who have Leopard 2 tanks to join this alliance and provide as many tanks as possible. "
Ukrainian President Zelensky has previously stated that the West needs to assist 300 tanks to change the situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Western officials believe that providing 100 tanks is enough to allow the Ukrainian army to stabilize its position in the Russian army's possible spring offensive.
The West has been worried that providing Western main battle tanks to Ukraine will anger Russia and trigger further escalation of the conflict. However, after many Western countries recently changed their strategies and provided main battle tanks to Ukraine, Yuri Sack, an adviser to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, even said that after breaking through the obstacle of providing tanks, providing fighter jets to Ukraine is "the next big obstacle." "If we get them, the advantage on the battlefield will be huge. Not just F-16. Fourth-generation aircraft, that's what we want." Since fighter jets are far more sensitive than tanks, Ukraine has so far only received Soviet-era fighter parts from European countries.
But Sack is confident of breaking through this barrier. He declared: "They (Western countries) didn't want to give us heavy artillery , but they gave it; they didn't want to give us the Haimas multiple launch rocket system, and then they gave it; they didn't want to give us tanks, and now they also give tanks. Except for nuclear weapons, there is nothing we can't get."
The British " Daily Telegraph " also quoted Ukrainian officials as saying that after acquiring Western tanks, Ukraine is expected to obtain long-range missiles to attack the area nearly 200 miles behind the Russian defense line. "These advanced weapons systems will be used to attack Russia's fragile supply chain and attack ammunition depots, warehouses and other infrastructure critical to supporting its military operations."
The United States has previously refused to provide Ukraine with ATACMS Army tactical missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers. But Zelensky's adviser Mikhailo Podoljak said there was "a consensus" in the West that concerns that supplying Ukraine with such long-range missiles would escalate the conflict were "misplaced." He told the Daily Telegraph: "Now we are seeing a sharp change in the mood of the political elites in European countries, who understand that we need to transfer all equipment, including armored vehicles . I am convinced, without a doubt, that we will reach a long-range missile agreement."
Podolyak said that long-range missiles will be "part of the negotiation process" in Ukraine's next batch of weapons programs.
However, the tanks assisted by the West have not yet arrived, and the Russian army has launched large-scale air strikes across Ukraine. On January 26, local time, air defense sirens sounded throughout Ukraine, and explosions were heard in Odessa, Nikolaev Oblast, Vinnitsa Oblast, Kiev Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Ukrainian military stated that the Russian army launched more than 30 missiles at multiple targets across Ukraine that day. Reuters stated that before Russia launched this round of air strikes, the United States and other countries officially announced their preparations to provide Ukraine with advanced main battle tanks to help it fight Russia. Russia condemned this approach as "extremely dangerous."
The United States also poured cold water on Ukraine's "overly optimistic" attitude. After the U.S. "Defense News" stated on the 26th that the United States and its NATO allies will send modern main battle tanks to Ukraine, Ukraine once again called for providing Kyiv with modern fighter jets such as the F-16F. However, the report reminded that the weapons given to Ukraine by the United States and other countries should be consistent with the winning strategy. "Pushing Ukraine towards the path of Western air supremacy will not help them win."
reported that the lesson of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is that contemporary air combat tends to use mobile ground-based air defense systems rather than expensive fixed-wing aircraft to gain air supremacy. "Any attempt by Ukraine to gain air superiority by relying on advanced Western-aided fighter jets would be a costly mistake."
Since October last year, Russia has attacked Ukraine’s rear energy infrastructure with missiles and drones. The West generally believes that this move is intended to destroy Ukraine's infrastructure and increase pressure on the Ukrainian government. However, "Defense News" stated that these attacks by the Russian army may have another military logic: to gain air supremacy through attrition. According to the report, facing the more advanced and more numerous Russian fighter jets, Ukraine used the dispersed and mobile air defense system - firing and then quickly moving to a new position - to avoid being destroyed. This method of warfare prevented Russian fighter jets from exerting the power of aerial firepower and caused heavy casualties on the battlefield.
But the Russian Aerospace Forces appear to have learned from past mistakes and adjusted their strategy, instead using missiles and drone attacks to weaken Ukraine's air defense systems. Although the Russian army was not able to find and destroy enough Ukrainian mobile air defense systems in time, the same effect could be achieved by launching large-scale drone and missile attacks and causing the Ukrainian air defense system to excessively consume precious surface-to-air missiles. Although the West has aided a large number of air defense systems, they are still far from being able to meet battlefield consumption. The
report finally reminded that Ukraine is fighting the world's first aerial war of attrition based on missiles and drones.
And this may be just a microcosm of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict entering a full-scale war of attrition in the future.
