Zhitong Finance APP was informed that global stock markets remained stable on the last trading day of this year as the market digested U.S. economic data and news of China adjusting its epidemic prevention and control policies. However, affected by high inflation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, global stock indexes will fall by 20% during the year. However, the dollar is on track for its best annual performance in seven years, driven by rising U.S. interest rates.
David Bizer, managing partner of Global Customized Wealth, an investment management company, said: "This year, the stock market has been largely affected by the Fed." "The market has been trying to predict when the Fed will raise interest rates, the speed and peak of the rate hike." The market expects the federal funds rate to peak close to 5% in the middle of next year from the current 4.25-4.5%.
Since March, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by a total of 425 basis points this year.
expects the S&P 500 index to fall 19% this year, and the Dow Jones index to fall 8.5% this year.
European stock markets may fall by 12% throughout the year. Britain's FTSE 100 index, which includes many exporters, is expected to rise more than 1% in 2022.
The MSCI global equity index is set to fall 20% for the year, its biggest annual decline since the 2008 global financial crisis, when the index fell more than 40%.
MSCIThe Asia-Pacific ex-Japan stock index is set to fall 19% this year, its worst performance since 2008.
The Nikkei 225 Index has fallen more than 9% this year.
In the foreign exchange market , the US dollar has risen by more than 8% this year. However, due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates as aggressively as previously feared, the US dollar has fallen by more than 7% this quarter.
The pound has fallen about 11% against the dollar this year and is expected to have its worst annual performance since the 2016 Brexit referendum.
The yen rose to a 10-day high of 131.72 yen per dollar on Friday, but the Bank of Japan's dovish policy has caused the yen to fall 13% this year, its worst annual performance since 2013.
The euro was steady at 1.0669 against the dollar and is expected to fall 6% during the year.
Investors have been worried that the policies of major central banks to curb inflation may lead to an economic slowdown.
analyst said that entering 2023, inflation still needs to be contained, and investors will also be wary of geopolitical tensions.
In dollar terms, U.S. Treasury bonds and German Bunds, the benchmark for global lending markets, have fallen 16% and 24% respectively this year.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose 1 basis point on Friday to 3.84%, while the yield on 10-year German Bunds rose 3.5 basis points to 2.5%.
U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.54% to $78.72 a barrel, Brent crude oil futures rose 0.49% to $83.87 a barrel.
Brent crude oil prices are on track to rise 8% this year after rising 50.2% in 2021. U.S. crude oil prices are expected to rise 4.8% this year after rising 55% last year.
Gold prices were steady at $1,816 an ounce.
