The war in Ukraine has entered its 11th month. Moreover, as 2022 is about to leave us, people are beginning to ask this question: Where is the war in Ukraine going? Will it end in 2023? Will it be decided on the battlefield? Or will victory or defeat be decided at the negotiation table? Or will it continue all the way to 2024?
A British media interviewed several experts on these issues. Today, let me share with you the opinions of these experts.
1. British expert Professor Clark: "Russia's spring offensive will be the key"
Friends who have been following this account for a long time will be familiar with Professor Clark in the UK. He often appears on the British Sky News station and often answers questions from the audience. He was also the former director of the Royal United Services Institute. However, when this media introduced him, it gave him a title I had never seen before: Deputy Director of the Institute of Strategic Studies at the University of Exeter (University) in the UK.
In his opinion, those who tried to invade another country anywhere on the Eurasian steppes were ultimately destined to spend the winter there.
In history, in the face of the winter on the steppes, Napoleon , Hitler and Stalin all had to keep their armies moving forward. Now, for Putin, the Russian army has "regressed" on the ground. The Russian army is preparing to spend the winter there, waiting for the arrival of spring to launch a new offensive.
He analyzed that under the current circumstances, both sides need to pause, but the Ukrainians are better equipped and motivated to move forward. What can be expected is that they will maintain pressure on the Russian army, at least in the Donbass region.
Waiting at Kremina and Svatov, they were very close to a major breakthrough that would have pushed the Russian army back 67 kilometers to the next natural line of defense. The line will be close to where they actually started to mount their campaign in February.
When the immediate rewards are so great, Kiev will not want to stop. However, with the recapture of Kherson , the Ukrainian offensive may be paused in the southwest.
Crossing the east side of the Dnieper River and connecting Russia's fragile roads and railways to Crimea may be too demanding for the Ukrainian army. Even so, Professor Clark believes that the possibility of Kiev suddenly launching a new offensive cannot be ruled out.
For 2023, the key deciding factor will be the fate of Russia's spring offensive. Putin admitted that about 50,000 newly mobilized troops are already on the front lines; the other 250,000 people who have just been mobilized are being trained to prepare for deployment next year.
Until the fate of these new Russian armies was determined on the battlefield, there was nothing to do but more war.
A brief and uneasy ceasefire is the only other prospect. Putin has made it clear he will not stop. Ukraine has made clear that it is still fighting for its life.
2. Andrei Piontkovsky: "Ukraine will win back its land"
This is the first time I have heard of Mr. Piontkovsky. He lives in Washington, DC, USA and is a scientist and analyst .
He believes: Ukraine will achieve victory by fully restoring its territorial integrity by the spring of 2023 at the latest. He believes that two factors are making such an ending possible.
First, the energy, determination and courage of the Ukrainian army and the entire Ukrainian nation. This is unprecedented in the history of modern warfare.
Another fact is that, after years of Kremlin appeasement , the West is finally growing up and realizing the seriousness of the historical challenges it faces. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently issued a statement that best illustrates this point. He said: "The price we pay is money. The price Ukrainians pay is blood. If the authoritarian regime sees force being rewarded, we will all pay a higher price. The world will become a more dangerous place for all of us."
He believes that the exact timing of Ukraine's inevitable victory will depend on how quickly NATO delivers game-changing new military attack weapons (tanks, aircraft, long-range missiles ).
He predicts that Melitopol will become a key battleground in the coming months, perhaps weeks. After the liberation of Melitopol, Ukrainians will easily move to Sea of Azov , effectively cutting off supply and transportation routes to Crimea.
Russia will formally agree to surrender in technical talks after Ukraine made devastating advances on the battlefield. The winning powers—Ukraine, Britain, the United States—will shape a new international security architecture.
3, Barbara Zancetta: “No end in sight”
This is Barbara Zancetta, this is the first time I saw her name. He is a lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King's College London.
She spoke of Putin’s miscalculation from the beginning. Putin expected Ukraine to passively accept Russia's actions without meaningful participation from other countries, she said. This gross miscalculation resulted in a protracted conflict with seemingly no end in sight.
In her opinion, the winter will be difficult because of Russia’s Attacks on Klan infrastructure will attempt to undermine the morale and endurance of an already shattered population. But Ukraine has proven to be remarkably resilient. They will remain steadfast. The war will continue. Keep it going. The prospects for
negotiations are bleak. For a potential peace deal, at least one side's core needs need to change. There is no evidence that this has happened, or will happen anytime soon.
So, how will the end of the war come?
The costs of war, both material and human, may break the level of commitment to war among Russia's political elite. The keys will (appear) in Russia. In the past, wars in which miscalculation was a key factor, such as the United States' Vietnam War and the Soviet Union's Afghanistan War, all ended in this way.
The domestic political situation in this miscalculated country has changed, making exit (whether "honorable" or not) the only viable option.
However, this may only happen if the West stands firmly behind Ukraine in the face of increased domestic pressure related to the costs of the war.
Sadly, this will continue to be a protracted political, economic and military battle. By 2023 At the end of the year, it will likely still be a work in progress.
4, Ben Hodges: "There is no other outcome except Russia's failure"
Speaking of this Hodges, friends who are familiar with this number should be familiar with it. He is the former commander of U.S. Army Europe.
He believes that it is too early to plan a victory parade in Kiev, but now all the momentum is on Ukraine and in his opinion there is no doubt that the Ukrainians will win the war, probably as early as 2023 years.
The pace of winter will slow down, but there is no doubt that with all the winter equipment coming from the UK, Canada and Germany, Ukraine's military will be better equipped to handle it all than Russia's.
He is very optimistic! He believes that by January 2023, Ukraine may be able to begin the final stage of the campaign to liberate Crimea.
History tells us that war is a test of will and logistics. When we see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, and the rapidly improving logistics situation in Ukraine, he says he sees no other outcome than Russian defeat.
Why does he think so? He said Russia's withdrawal from Kherson led him, in part, to that conclusion.
The first is to provide a psychological boost to the Ukrainian people, the second is to deeply embarrass the Kremlin, and the third is to give the Ukrainian military a key operational advantage - all roads into Crimea are now within the range of Ukrainian weapons systems.
He believes: By the end of 2023, Ukraine will fully regain control and sovereignty over Crimea, although there may be some form or agreement that allows Russia to gradually withdraw part of its naval presence in Sevastopol ... maybe even by the end of the treaty (around 2025). The treaty existed before Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea.
He believes that subsequently, the reconstruction of infrastructure along the Sea of Azov in Ukraine will begin, including the important ports Mariupol and Berdyansk, and the reopening of the North Crimean Canal, which diverts water from the Dnieper River to Crimea, will be another important project that attracts much attention.
5, David Gendelman: 'Expect more of the same'
This is the first time I have heard of Gendelman. He is an Israeli military expert.
Here, instead of discussing "how will this end", ask: what does each party hope to achieve in the next phase.
Only about half of Russia's 300,000 mobilized troops are already in combat zones. The rest, together with the troops freed by the retreat from Kherson, gave the Russians the opportunity to launch an attack.
The occupation of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions will continue, but it is unlikely that Russia will make a major breakthrough, such as moving from the south to Pavlograd to surround the Ukrainian army in the Donbas. This is unlikely.
What is more likely is that the Russian army continues its current tactics and continues to slowly "grind" and slowly advance with the Ukrainian army in narrow directions, such as in the Bakhmut and Afdiivka areas. In the Svatov-Kreminna area, the Russian army may use the same tactics.
’s continued targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure and other attacks on Ukraine’s rear will bring this war of attrition strategy to its final implementation.
After the Russian army retreated from Kherson, important Ukrainian troops were also freed up. For them, the most strategic direction is south, towards Melitopol or Berdyansk, with the aim of cutting off the Russian mainland corridor to Crimea. If this can be done, it will be a major victory for Ukraine, which is why the Russians strengthened the defense of Melitopol.
Another option in Ukraine is Svatov. If successful there, they would endanger the entire northern flank of the entire Russian front.
The biggest question is: how many Ukrainian troops are free to attack at this time, and what timetable the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Zaluzhny, has on his desk. That is to say, the new reserve brigades and corps being built will be ready in one month, two months or three months, including manpower, armored vehicles and heavy weapons.
We'll get the answer to this question when the mud on the road freezes. And this answer will make it easier to answer the question "How will this end?"
Conclusion
You may want to know: Which expert’s analysis do I prefer?
can only say this: The analysis of these five people has its own merits. The last David's analysis of what the two sides will do next is quite good. In fact, the Ukrainian army has already launched a critical battle in Cremina, and the two sides are fighting fiercely these days. The general prediction is that the Ukrainian army will capture Cremina in the near future.
Hodges' analysis is a bit too optimistic, perhaps because he believes that Western countries led by the United States will provide Ukraine with all the equipment it needs as soon as possible. He did not mention that the Ukrainian army needs to first liberate the remaining territories of Zaporozhye Oblast and Kherson Oblast, but directly said that the Ukrainian army may start preparing to take Crimea in January 2023. Clearly, something is missing here.
As for Barbara, she seems to bet more on the possibility of major changes in Russian domestic politics. For that matter, perhaps she underestimated the Kremlin. However, it is not impossible. In recent days, Putin has canceled at least 12 planned public appearances or events.Is there a secret behind it? If so, what would it be like? It seems that the conflict between the Wagner Group and the Russian General Staff has become a bit more open. Will this have an impact on the subsequent situation or war efforts? In Russia, some propagandists seem to have begun to advocate that Bachmut should not fight. This is a relatively new trend. What does this mean? That remains to be seen. But all of this appears to point in an unfavorable direction for the Kremlin.
As for Professor Clark, he seems to have determined that the Russian army will launch a new round of offensive next spring. Regarding this point, my analysis is this: the possibility of the Russian army launching a spring offensive is actually not very high. The top brass of the Russian army should be very clear that relying on newly mobilized soldiers to fight the war cannot be compared with the Russian army when the operation was launched at the end of February this year, and the equipment is no longer what it used to be. You may remember that the shells were almost out. Oh, I forgot to share this with you: In Bakhmut, a Wagner soldier recorded a video, directly shouting at the Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov , scolding him, and saying that they had no more artillery shells!
High-precision missiles are almost running out (although they are still in production, but at a slower pace), and tanks, aircraft, armored vehicles, etc. cannot keep up. In my opinion, this spring offensive will remain on paper at best, perhaps as part of a psychological war to get the Ukrainians back to the negotiating table. However, Ukrainians have already seen through the Kremlin's intentions.
However, Professor Clark's other analysis still makes sense. I have to admire this. Therefore, the Ukrainian army will definitely make full use of the advantages of time, location and people this winter to further expand its results. Now it seems that big moves have taken place in the northern part of Luhansk Region . After that, there will be Zaporizhia direction.
Mr Piontkovsky's analysis puts too much hope that the Kremlin will be forced to negotiate to end this. Maybe, he doesn't know that someone is using all the resources?
Of course, his analysis of the Battle of Melitopol makes sense, and that was of course the key battle in southern Ukraine.
Well, I will share it with you today. The comments in the conclusion are just personal interpretations. Please don’t laugh at any inappropriate comments. As for whether it makes sense, time will tell. Thank you all! (End)
