Since February 24 this year, the war in Ukraine has intensified. Without the support of the United States and the European Union, the continuation of a defense effort of the current magnitude would probably be unimaginable.
But how much support does Ukraine receive, and what difference does it make?
Just last week, US President Biden pledged to provide Ukraine with an additional $45 billion in support - a plan that the US Congress will now negotiate. If the proposal is passed, it will be the fourth U.S. aid package for Ukraine. Since February this year, the total amount of funds allocated by the United States to Ukraine will reach 100 billion U.S. dollars.
This staggering figure has led Republican congressmen and other defenders of Russia to claim that the war in Ukraine has turned into a proxy war launched by the United States against Russia. But it’s not just fringes of the Republican Party that seem inclined to repeat this Russian propaganda.
Since Russia launched military operations against Ukraine on February 24 this year, at least 28 countries have provided weapons to Ukraine.
Yellow is the country that provides supplies.
At the same time, many international relations scholars and other experts in the field do not agree with this view.
Lauta, a lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of Reading, "This is obviously not a proxy war."
He said, "A proxy war is an indirect war, usually conducted secretly, can be denied, and is beyond the jurisdiction of international law. The US-Ukraine partnership is based on military and economic bilateral assistance. Classic case. "
"The only proxy war is the one Russia has waged against Ukraine since 2014, when it began supporting, training and covertly aiding separatist groups in the Donbas region. ”
Tracking War Spending
In addition to the United States, Europe has also paid its fair share for the kind of military-economic partnership Lauta mentioned.
However, it is difficult to track exactly how much money has been allocated to Ukraine.
Fortunately, the German research organization Kiel Institute for the World Economy has managed to provide quite accurate figures. It should be noted that these figures are based on statistics from its agency that tracks support for Ukraine, which monitors Western military aid, humanitarian services to Ukraine and financial aid.
However, calculating the numbers can be a challenge,
"The main obstacles are the availability of information, especially official information, and the price assessment of items, especially military items," said Frank, an economist at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. We conduct in-depth research to solve the former problem through a large number of search mechanisms. "
He also pointed out, "Generally speaking, the information we get from official government channels is readily available. If there is no official information, or the statement does not fully quantify the donation amount, then we supplement it with credible media reports.
One problem with this approach is that official information about military aid from the United States or the United Kingdom is often incomplete.
Frank said, "We can only go as far as official publicly released information, and our new standards show which countries provide good and transparent information and which countries do not." "
He also added, "To find the right price for military products, we mainly rely on the contract value of the arms trade database published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute , and this database can also calculate the average unit price. We adhere to our self-imposed cap rule because it allows us to use prices for new goods so as not to underestimate the true value of bilateral support.
However, donor countries vary in their data transparency.
Frank noted that “official and available information from the United States is the most current and detailed and allows for accurate estimates of the total value of military support and in-kind military support.”"
He also added, "The situation in EU member states is different. Eastern European, Baltic , and other countries are generally transparent in disclosing the amounts and total amounts of military aid programs. In the same category, countries like Spain, Italy and Portugal are very opaque and even deliberately withhold information. "
Weapons and equipment at a glance
The United States provides the most support
As Europe's de facto leader, Germany poses a particular challenge, mainly because Berlin has handed over stocks of military equipment that have long been retired or written off, and therefore there is currently no valid price assessment.
For example, Germany provides heavy weapons - such as anti-tank equipment and anti-aircraft missiles, but it also provides light weapons - such as machine gun , grenade and other ammunition.
On the one hand, this type of military material comes from the stocks of the German Armed Forces or Bundeswehr , and on the other hand, it comes from federally funded industrial stocks.
provides a detailed overview of the delivery on its website, albeit with caveats.
Frank said, “Countries like Germany provide detailed quantity lists of items promised and delivered, but do not show the value. "
He pointed out, "This brings great challenges to our work, because some of the items sent by Germany come from the German Wehrmacht inventory, and these inventories have been in service for more than 10 years, and it is almost impossible to find a suitable price for estimation. "
Therefore, it is not surprising that the United States provides the most military support to Ukraine, according to data provided by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Frank noted, "By far the largest contributor of military aid is the United States, which currently has committed 22.86 billion euros (approximately $24.37 billion) in aid. The United Kingdom has committed the second largest amount, 4.13 billion euros (approximately 4.4 billion U.S. dollars).
In fact, Britain has always been one of Ukraine's largest arms suppliers.
The British government has delivered or promised to deliver M270 multiple rocket launchers, thousands of anti-tank weapons, hundreds of short-range missiles, armored vehicles and a number of interplanetary air defense systems to Ukraine.
British Prime Minister Sunak also promised to provide an additional 125 anti-aircraft missiles shortly after taking office.
Germany, meanwhile, ranks third in military aid spending after the United States and Britain, having provided 2.34 billion euros ($2.49 billion) in aid so far.
The UK and Germany account for the lion's share of support in Europe. According to data provided by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, EU member states have provided a total of 8.61 billion euros (approximately US$9.18 billion) in military aid.
Western aid has had an 'undeniable impact'
Europeans' commitment is not limited to military support.
Frank noted that “if we include the European Peace Fund, a military reimbursement program run by the EU, the EU’s total military support would increase by 3.1 billion euros (approximately 3.3 billion U.S. dollars), bringing it to 11.71 billion euros (approximately 12 480 million). And that includes commitments until November 20. ”
EU countries and EU institutions are overtaking the United States in aid to Ukraine as they decide to provide Ukraine with an additional 18 billion euros ($19 billion) from January next year.
The Kiel Institute for World Economics said that by then, Europe will provide a total of 52 billion euros (about 55 billion U.S. dollars) in support to Kiev, while the United States will provide 48 billion euros (about 51 billion U.S. dollars) in "military, financial and humanitarian assistance ."
Some of the numbers inevitably draw comparisons with the support the world has provided to other troubled countries. However, Lauta, a professor at the University of Reading, said it was difficult to find a similar precedent.
He pointed out, "I think people are generally looking for cases that can be compared to the current situation, but most of them are imperfect.The focus should not be on the comparisons and some of the errors in them, but on the continued support for Ukraine. "
" Its undeniable influence - from intelligence sharing to the recently approved $1.8 billion package - has enabled Ukraine to fend off Russia's offensive in unexpected ways.
In the face of these huge sums of money, pro-Russian voices are more widely spread than ever in arguments attacking the financial aid as being misguided or used to incite war.
It is often believed that the impact on Ukraine aid is disproportionately higher than Russia's defense budget
However, according to the latest intelligence information released by the British Ministry of Defense, Putin has pledged more than 116 billion pounds (approx. (combined US$140 billion), while a recent analysis published by Reuters shows that Russia’s defense and security budget will total US$155 billion in 2023.
It remains to be seen whether the united front against Russia's offensive can remain firm - especially under a Republican-led US House of Representatives .
Lauta said, “On the one hand, the balance of success and failure has not yet tipped in favor of the two countries – each month’s progress has a different logic. Ukraine's territorial advance has also been accompanied by Russian attacks on infrastructure, and there are rumors that Russia is trying to retake Kiev through further mobilization in January and February. "
He added, "On the other hand, at the same time as Ukraine's firm determination to repel Russia's offensive, there is Russia's lack of commitment to peace. "
" Whatever happens in 2023, Russia's pursuit of peace may be just an illusion, a means to buy time, mobilize and reorganize. What people can predict is that 2023 will bring more support from the transatlantic community to Ukraine, which is facing the most serious security problem in decades. "
