Two important news came from our close neighbor Japan yesterday, one bad and one good.
Let’s start with the bad news. The proportion of BQ.1.1 infections in the Tokyo metropolitan area has exceeded 40%.
This means that the Cerberus strain may soon replace other strains and become the most mainstream variant in Japan. This time is predicted to be mid-January.
On December 21, the number of new infections in Japan exceeded the 200,000 mark again, reaching 207,000, ranking first in the world for 7 consecutive weeks, with 296 deaths and 530 severe cases.
Among them, there were 21,186 new people in the Tokyo metropolitan area, 114% more than a week ago, which means that Cerberus does have unusual spreading power.
The current understanding of Japanese experts is that based on existing observations and data, BQ.1.1 is twice as transmissible as the previous Omikron virus. The severity and fatality rate are still under investigation, but it is estimated to be similar to the Omikron virus.
So while this is bad news, it's not terribly bad, except that the name Cerberus does sound terrible.
But this only sounds bad to us. In fact, in Europe and the United States, Cerberus seems to be very crotchless and has poor combat value. Anyone can kill it, so it is more similar to the paper tiger we often call it.
This is probably a true portrayal of Cerberus. It can infect more people, but its virulence and lethality are not improved. For most people, the most it can do is slap soy sauce in our upper respiratory tract, leaving a mark of its visit - antibodies and that's it.
The bad news is not so bad, but what about the good news?
The good news is that the fatality rate of Omicron has dropped significantly and is now lower than that of seasonal influenza.
The Japanese Ministry of Health yesterday released statistics on the seventh wave of infections that started in July and August this year. Compared with the sixth wave that started in January and February this year, the fatality rate has been significantly reduced.
0.01%
60-70 years old is 0.05%;
70-80 years old is 0.39%;
(60-80 years old overall is 0.18%)
80 years old and above is 1.69%.
In the sixth wave of the epidemic, the mortality rate for those aged 70-80 was 0.7%, and that for those aged 80 and above was 4.57%.
The earlier 5th wave last year, dominated by delta strain , had a mortality rate of 1.34% for those aged 60-80 years old, and as high as 7.92% for those over 80 years old!
So it can also be seen from this data gradient that although Omicron is indeed becoming more and more contagious, its fatality rate is getting lower and lower.
According to the 2017-2020 data provided by the Japanese Ministry of Health, the current fatality rate of Omicron is really lower than the mortality rate of seasonal influenza. They are:
For those under 60 years old, the fatality rate of Omicron is 0.01%, and the fatality rate of influenza is 0.01%.
60-80 years old, the mortality rate of Omicron is 0.18%, influenza is 0.19%;
80 years and above, the mortality rate of Omicron is 1.69%, influenza is 1.73%.
However, the good news is not entirely good. There is also bad news hidden in the middle.
As Omicron becomes more contagious, more and more people are infected, resulting in a high death toll.
54,680 people have died in Japan so far, and 36,295 people have died this year alone, more than double the 18,385 people who died last year when the original strain and delta variant were mainly prevalent!
So on an individual basis, the reduced virulence of the new coronavirus does greatly reduce the risk of severe illness and death faced by each of us, even with the Cerberus strain that may come.
But for the entire country or humanity as a whole, Omicron is still likely to cause many deaths due to a significant increase in the number of infections due to increased contagiousness.
However, due to its low proportion, it may not be noticed by most people. For example, many people may not see a familiar person die due to new crown .
But this does not mean that death does not exist. Firstly, it is possible that the mortality rate has decreased, and secondly, it is possible that the peak of severe illness and death has not yet arrived.
At present, some cities may have passed the peak period of infection, and some may be about to arrive, while the peak period of severe illness and death will lag for a period of time, and may be coming soon.
In any case, Omicron will come to an end for the time being, and the lives of most people will gradually return to normal. But those who failed to survive, I hope we will not ignore and forget.
After a trauma, only by constantly sucking and licking the wound can you not quickly forget the pain and let another injury happen unexpectedly.
Because another wave of Omicron may be brewing, and Japan is already in its 8th wave.
Only by making the most adequate preparations can we allow ourselves, our loved ones, and more people to survive.
