Source: CCTV News Client
In recent days, the trading price of RMB against the US dollar at home and abroad has increased, which has attracted market attention. What does the recent fluctuation of RMB exchange rate mean? What impact will it have on the people?
Experts: Two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate will be the norm.
Experts said that the current fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate are mainly affected by the Federal Reserve's accelerated tightening of monetary policy in order to curb high inflation. As the U.S. dollar index continues to strengthen, most non-US dollar currencies, including the RMB, have depreciated to varying degrees.
BOC Securities Global Chief Economist Guan Tao : Recently, the US dollar index in the international foreign exchange market has also been jumping up and down. After a strong consolidation, the US dollar index has begun to rise again. Against this background, the RMB exchange rate has adjusted.
Experts said that this fluctuation in the RMB exchange rate should be viewed with a normal mind. Although the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated greatly recently, the RMB has still performed steadily among major currencies this year.
Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC Securities: From the beginning of 2015 to the present, the U.S. dollar index has risen by more than 14%. However, in the process, the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar has been adjusted by 7% or 8% (about). But at the same time, we have seen that the RMB has appreciated significantly against the euro, pound, Japanese yen, and major Asian currencies such as the Korean won. So generally speaking, among major currencies, the RMB exchange rate is still relatively strong.
In fact, in recent years, with the increasing marketization of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism , the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate has also increased.
Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC Securities: After the RMB exchange rate flexibility increases, two-way fluctuations ( exchange rate ) will be the norm, and a reasonable balance is the goal. However, keeping the exchange rate stable does not mean that the RMB exchange rate will not move.
Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank : In the past few years, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has generally maintained two-way fluctuations at a reasonable and balanced level.
Expert: From the perspective of import and export, exchange rate fluctuations have pros and cons.
Many people are concerned about what does the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate mean? What is the impact of RMB depreciation? Experts said that from the perspective of import and export, exchange rate fluctuations have both advantages and disadvantages.
Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC Securities: Whether the exchange rate rises or falls, there are pros and cons. There is no saying that appreciation is a good thing and depreciation is a bad thing. Specific to the recent adjustment of the RMB exchange rate, it is obviously beneficial to market entities with foreign exchange income and foreign exchange assets. For those with external payment needs or external liabilities, it may bring certain losses.
Therefore, for export-oriented enterprises, they must establish the concept of exchange rate risk neutrality, actively use derivatives, manage exchange rate risks well, and maintain normal production and operations.
So for the common people, what impact does the recent fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar have?
In fact, if you buy non-imported products domestically, the fluctuations in the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will have little impact on you. And if you want to import goods through cross-border e-commerce overseas shopping in the near future, and the imports are settled in US dollars, then you may find that the RMB price you have to pay for the products has become more expensive in the near future.
In addition, for residents, the recent fluctuations of the RMB against the US dollar mean that the cost of purchasing foreign exchange will increase, and the cost of studying abroad will increase. Does this mean we should hurry up and exchange dollars now?
Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank: Foreign exchange purchases should be based on actual needs and should be exchanged reasonably, and we should realize that the exchange rate fluctuates in both directions.
Expert: The RMB does not have the basis for sustained depreciation
From the perspective of my country's economic fundamentals, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will rebound significantly compared with the second quarter, the inflation level will be moderate and controllable, and the international balance of payments will be in good condition. Experts said that the fundamentals of my country's long-term economic growth will not change, and the RMB does not have the basis for continued depreciation.
Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank Wen Bin: , especially the current account and direct investment and other basic items of the balance of payments, maintain a relatively high surplus, which lays the premise for the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the smooth operation of the foreign exchange market. There is no basis for the continued depreciation of the RMB.
In addition, from the perspective of supply and demand, there is no basis for the continued weakening of the RMB.
Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC Securities: We have seen that from the perspective of banks’ foreign exchange settlement and sales from March to August, except for a small deficit in May, every other month was in surplus, and from March to August, the six-month cumulative surplus was US$61.5 billion.
Not only that, experts said, the People's Bank of China also has a variety of tools to deal with sudden and large fluctuations in exchange rates.
Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC Securities: For example, the countercyclical factor in the central parity quotation mechanism, the foreign exchange risk preparation for forward foreign exchange purchases, and the macro-prudential coefficient for cross-border investment and financing, etc. Overall, (my country's) foreign exchange market is more resilient, and we are more confident and well-equipped to deal with the impact of overseas monetary policy tightening on China's cross-border capital flows and the RMB exchange rate.
