As the Central Economic Work Conference concluded, the meeting emphasized that in 2023, we must adhere to the principle of stability and progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies , increase macro policy control efforts, and strengthen various political policies. At the same time, it reiterated the positioning of real estate for living only and not for speculation. The enthusiasm for real estate investment has declined. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission has increased supervision of market prices. After the sharp rise in coal and iron ore prices, has corrected and has been repaired. The spot price has lacked momentum for rising prices, and terminal procurement continues to weaken. What is the trend of the steel market in the later period? Let's listen to the detailed analysis of analyst ...
Factors affecting the steel market
The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing on the 15th and 16thhtml The 5
meeting proposed that we should focus on stabilizing growth, employment, and prices, and keep the economy running within a reasonable range; adhere to the positioning of "houses are for living in, not for speculation", ensure the steady development of the real estate market, effectively prevent and resolve the risks of high-quality leading real estate companies; support platform companies in leading development and creating jobs.
Analyst opinion: With the continuous implementation of optimization measures for epidemic prevention and control, departments are actively adjusting financial policies , and the effects of various policies to stabilize the economy are gradually released, and economic growth is expected to continue. At the same time, the meeting also mentioned that the main tone of real estate is still to live in and not speculate. We must ensure the steady development of the real estate market, focus on stabilizing growth, stabilizing employment, stabilizing prices, and keeping the economy operating within a reasonable range. Market investment expectations still need time to be verified. The overall demand for steel from projects is still weak, which is negative for steel price trends.
National coal production reached a record high Year-on-year growth 9.7%
According to statistics, from January to November, national coal production was 4.09 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, an increase of 360 million tons over the same period last year, and a record high. Among them, the coal output of the four provinces of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang reached 3.32 billion tons from January to November, accounting for 81% of the national coal output, fully playing the role of the "main force" in increasing production and supply.
Analyst opinion: We are currently in the critical period of peak winter. The State Council has made decisions and arrangements on stable energy supply. The National Energy Administration continues to increase its efforts and take strong and effective measures to accelerate the release of advanced coal production capacity , promote coal production to remain at a high level, and go all out to increase coal production and supply, and promote coal production to achieve rapid growth. Statistics show that the national coal output is 4.09 billion tons, a record high. Coal supply has increased significantly, suppressing the fourth round of coke increases. Cost-end support has weakened, which is negative for steel price trends.
Electric arc furnace Steel plant operating rate decreased month-on-month
This week, the average operating rate of 85 independent electric arc furnace steel plants across the country was 60.06%, decreased by 1.41% month-on-month, and decreased by 3.32% month-on-month; capacity utilization rate 52.18% increased by 0.87% week-on-week, and decreased by 2.93% month-on-month. This week, with the end of the year approaching and poor profitability, more steel mills have suspended production of electric arc furnaces, and the average weekly operating rate of electric arc furnaces has dropped significantly.
Analyst opinion: Affected by the sharp rise in coking coal and iron ore prices in the early stage, the costs of steel companies have risen sharply, and their profit margins have narrowed. Electric furnace steel Some companies have suffered serious losses, and have increased production shutdowns for maintenance. The blast furnace operating rate is 75.97%, a month-on-month increase of 0.07%, which is basically stable. Some specifications in the market are out of stock, and steel mill inventories and social inventories have both declined. At the same time, under the guidance of favorable policies, investment expectations have increased. Under the psychological influence of buying up rather than buying down, merchants' replenishment sentiment has been boosted, which is good for steel price trends.
market price
futures fell sharply by nearly 130
16 day and night trading rebar main force fell by 115, closing at 3952, a decrease of 2.83%; hot coil main force fell by 127, closing at 4004, a decrease of 3.07%; coking coal main force It fell 70.5 points to close at 1911, a decrease of 3.56%; the main coke price fell 120.5 points to close at 2768.5, a decrease of 4.17%; iron ore fell 22.5 points to close at 801.5, a decrease of 2.73%.
Steel mills have steadily lowered their prices
According to data from the China Steel Network Information Research Institute, today A total of 8 steel mills in Japan adjusted their prices, of which:
lowered prices for 3 steel mills, accounting for 37.5%, with a price adjustment range of 20-50 yuan/ton;
remained unchanged for 5 steel mills, accounting for 62.5%.
The average spot price this week rose again by nearly 150 yuan/ton
China Steel Network APP data shows:
Building materials 24 markets, the average price of rebar 20mmHRB400E is 4,064 yuan/ton, which is higher than The price increased by 135 yuan/ton on the trading day last Friday;
hot coil 24 markets, the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils was 4,190 yuan/ton, compared with last Friday’s trading The daily price increased by 147 yuan/ton;
medium and thick plate 23 markets, the average price of 14-20mm ordinary medium plate was 4223 yuan/ton, which was 134 yuan/ton higher than the price on last Friday's trading day.
Steel price forecast
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates 50 basis points, commodity prices will resume adjustment after a sharp rise, and with the convening of the domestic Central Economic Work Conference, stable economic development and real estate will only be achieved next year. The main tone of "live not speculate" remains unchanged, and the enthusiasm for real estate investment has been hit. At the same time, the national coal output from January to November was 4.09 billion tons, an increase of 360 million tons over the same period last year, a record high. Coal supply increased significantly, cost-side support weakened, steel mills' enthusiasm for replenishment declined, and it was the off-season. Terminal demand is weakening, and merchants' replenishment sentiment is limited. After the spot price has risen continuously, the motivation to continue to rise may weaken under the disturbance of capital market . It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate and run weakly next week.
