On the afternoon of the 17th, a group of Chinese scholars discussed the Ukrainian War, with the topic "Russia-Ukrainian conflict: In what way will it end?" This is part of the 2023 Global Times Annual Meeting with the theme of "China and the World after the Twenty National Congre

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Source: Maple Leaf Jun Review (ID: fengyejunping)

Author: Maple Leaf Jun

Frankly speaking, since February, including the early and early stages of the war, I have been uncomfortable so far because I have received some information from Chinese scholars. Whenever I hear Chinese scholars’ analysis of this war, I think: Isn’t there going wrong again, right?

You can’t blame me. If you want to blame, just blame these scholars said: On the eve of the war, almost no scholar said that he drove tanks and infantry fighting chariots to other countries, and without permission, and also fired live ammunition. Is this right? What kind of nature is this? This attitude made their later analysis fundamentally give the outside world the impression that this is a group of Chinese experts who value quantification but ignore qualitative behavior.

Put aside the lack of qualitativeness, these scholars have failed even in fact. When the Russian army gathered on a large scale to the Russian-Ukrainian border and prepared for the war in full swing, the United States had issued an early warning, and Presidents Biden, Pentagon and CIA all confirmed that Russia is about to launch a large-scale attack on Ukraine. However, Moscow is engaged in "no war on the Western Front", saying, "Where is there any trouble?" Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova , who is still on duty, also seriously told foreign media: If a war really breaks out, please inform me in advance so that I can adjust my vacation time. It is understandable that the Russians say this because if you have to start, it is best to have a surprise attack effect. But how do Chinese scholars do it? They also said in a tone of confusion or confusion: Why do you need this? Deliberately exaggerating the atmosphere of war, such a West is really bad-minded. The then editor-in-chief of Global Times Hu Xijin also mocked Biden: Where is the offense you mentioned? Where is it?

It turns out that Lao Hu is a meticulous and rigorous person. Even when he eats with his friends, he must be accurate to the second. If he picks up the wine glass one second later, it is considered that the other party did not invite him to this meal.

Anyway, the war has started, so we have to talk about the fight. The Soviet Union was China's big brother, and now Russia is China's caring person, not to mention the cooperation between China and Russia in the field of defense industry, the closeness of weapons standards, especially the live textbook effect of local war provided by the Ukrainian War. Chinese scholars quickly focused their attention on the specific benefits of China and Russia in this war.

Russia is a big witch, and Ukraine is a little witch. This is the basic cognitive starting point of Chinese scholars. Therefore, experts, both literary and military, believe that Ukraine must stop, and President Zelensky may find it difficult to escape the fate of running away, because when the Taliban invaded Kabul , the then president of Afghan ended. Therefore, the voices made by scholars are summarized into a judgment: the Russian army cuts melons and vegetables, and the Ukrainian army is irresistible. President Putin's "special military operation" will be fully implemented in the conscientious implementation of the Russian army's armored forces.

However, the Ukrainians did not let this judgment come true. The Ukrainian military was not optimistic in the early stages of the war with tenacious resistance to tell these experts from the far east: subjectivism kills people. From the Gulf War to the present, to be honest, you have not made any substantial progress.

I don’t know if Putin stole the show or if he thinks that the killing weapon in Russia can scare the world in just a flash. Not long after the war broke out, he said that it is not ruled out that the use of nuclear weapon is used when Russia’s “sovement and territory is threatened”. This sounds scary to some people. Don’t forget that Hu Xijin also mentioned the addition of 1,000 nuclear warheads two years ago. After Putin said this, Old Hu was immediately excited and said, "Don't be impatient, if you impatient, you really have atomic bomb . Don't say you have too late to regret it."

If you don’t believe me, you can look back at his original words. Judging from the urgency, Lao Hu really thought of himself as Putin at that moment. He hoped that Westerners would understand: I warned you once in Russian, and I will repeat it in Chinese. Don’t tell me that you still don’t understand.

In fact, Putin’s nuclear warning still failed. The United States and NATO have repeatedly stated that they have taken note of Moscow's statement, but there is nothing unusual at the moment. The Ukrainian army did not take it seriously. Even after Russia held referendums in Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson, and privately posted small signs of sovereignty and territorial integrity to these four areas, it still carried out battlefield deployment and specific operations as planned. Later, after Kherson was recaptured, Zelensky even went to inspect. No one cared about Moscow's "sovereignty and territorial integrity" warning, and the atomic bomb did not fly over.

One can imagine how Chinese scholars felt after seeing these developments. It is no exaggeration to say that the disappointment is no less than that after excitedly cooking a pot of fried sauce , only to find that there is no noodles at home, but only another kind of noodles - stick noodles.

Now, the war has been going on for 10 months. Judging from the timeline, it has also reached the stage where the scars have healed and the pain has been forgotten. Scholars have also recovered and can once again drink Longjing and talk about the war in Ukraine.

Zhou Li, who once served as the counselor of the Chinese Embassy in Russia and the Ambassador to Ukraine, said that the United States and Europe are the key to solving the Russia-Ukraine issue. However, the United States and Europe have so far made no substantive efforts to ease the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. They have even made efforts in the opposite direction, continuously delivering large amounts of weapons and ammunition, and vowed to support Ukraine in fighting Russia until the last moment.

Russian troops attacked Ukraine, Moscow manipulated the referendum to separate the four regions from Ukraine, but the United States and Europe held the key to resolving the conflict. This view cannot be said to be novel. It's like someone who doesn't catch robbers, but warns people who work the night shift every day: The key to solving the problem is not to carry any money with you, preferably not even in your pockets. It would be better if you can run naked to and from get off work, so that the other party can't get the money even if they rob someone. is that so? Not to mention, Ukraine was just flirting with the idea and had not yet joined NATO, so Russia used this as an excuse to take action. But the fact is, does a sovereign country need other people's consent to join something or not? Does a villager need to get the approval of the village director to be friendly with someone? Moreover, Russia itself is just a villager, a tough guy type of villager who is quite "domineering" in the eyes of some people.

Dean of the School of International Relations at Nanjing University Zhu Feng said that the real contest behind the Ukrainian war is between Russia and the United States. This is a typical proxy war.

Because Ukraine is resisting, the United States and NATO are providing weapons. This looks somewhat similar, but it is only similar in appearance. Ukrainians are not stupid, and they will not "self-harm." The current war is imposed on the Ukrainians by Russia. The essence of this war in Russia is "If you don't want to be my little brother, I will force you to be your big brother." But for Ukraine, this is a 100% patriotic war. Any normal person will agree with this.

Of course, is there an "agent"? To a certain extent, yes, but this was given to the United States by Putin because of his excessive desire. This agent was established by himself. It is false that the United States does not want to weaken Russia, but Russia has forced Ukraine to become a mortal enemy. This is a rare truth.

Deputy Dean of the Institute of Russian Studies at Tsinghua UniversityWu Dahuistill thinks highly of Moscow, saying that this is a "large-scale regional conventional war under the conditions of quasi-nuclear war deterrence". On the third day of the war, Russia upgraded its nuclear forces to a special state of combat readiness. It is true that Putin has wielded the nuclear stick, but the world also sees clearly that the United States and the West have their own judgment: Russia's main purpose is to intimidate, but it has nothing to do with any specific actions.

In fact, although people cannot get into Putin's mind and look at it, logic can tell that Putin himself is very clear whether he can call on the Russians to join him in a war where he will be destroyed. Who would really value his political power as much as himself and his wife and children? It can be said that it is not too difficult for terrorist organizations to find one or two suicide bombers, but it will be even more difficult for Putin to command all Russians to start the nuclear war.

Director of the Institute of International Affairs of Renmin University of China Wang Yiwei believes that in order to weaken Russia, the West must "guid Russia to engage in war acts", because only in this way can it be extremely restricted and severance of Russia and further divide the strategic interests left behind by the collapse of the Soviet Union in preparation.

Seeing this, I was really a little confused: this is the view of a scholar at Renmin University of China , but it is not the IQ of the Chinese people, right? Russia first took Crimea, then launched a war, and then hurriedly announced the result of the "referendum" in the four places in eastern Ukraine and southern Ukraine, and adopted it as Russia's "new territory". It turns out that all this was a conspiracy of the West.

, the academic entry point, was still too late. If it had been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people in the early 1980s, many people would not have been severely punished, because rape cases are frequent because of the hot weather, and the young women on the streets were dressed too thin: You are like this, how can I not be like that?

Mr. Zhang Shuhua, director of the Institute of Political Science, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is also not vague. He said that the world's political ecology has worsened, first of all, reflected in the sharp decline in the level of Western politicians - the level of morality and professionalism. Russian political elites led by Putin regard the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as a struggle for civilization and political values, but Russia has the will but lacks strength.

What kind of moral level of Western politicians, whether they have fallen or decadent, or their heads are called to kick the donkey, we can't sum it up in a nutshell, but as far as Putin and his group are concerned, what does this "elite" mean to the region and the world?

Since professor Samuel Huntington proposed the "clash of civilizations" in the early 1990s, there have been debates about this proposition, but just talking about the matter, in Russia and Putin's political logic, how many traces of "civilization" can people see? If there are very few, then what kind of "civilization dispute" is this? Should civilized people reason with uncivilized people, or should uncivilized people compare with civilized people? This is indeed a problem.

Because I have been harassed by various high-profile theories over the past year, I have now had a mild stress response to Chinese experts on the Ukrainian War. Although I cannot agree, these countries have put in their efforts to treat their great scholars, and have spoken their own principles in a simple and profound way. It is really not easy. I just think about Russia everywhere and always take the prejudice for President Putin. I also want to sincerely say: Comrades, thank you for your hard work!