text︱ Zhang Youhua
Taiwan’s cold wave has arrived. On December 17 and 18, the cold wave was showing its might. Before the 16th, it had rained for two weeks in Taiwan. In other words, the election of love is not hot. Let’s first look at Chiayi from here. Everyone should know that if the DPP wants Chiayi Mayor Li Junqi to win, he must do four points. The first thing is to reduce the turnout rate. The so-called reduction of the turnout rate means that when the cold wave comes, his turnout rate should be reduced to 430%.
Then Korean , you think reducing turnout is not good for the Kuomintang, so if you encounter a cold wave, will the election situation of Chiayi Mayor change? No one dares to bet now. Of course, if reduces the turnout rate to less than 40%, Li Junqi still has a chance to win, but it is not high. The second one, in addition to reducing the turnout rate, he blows out the basic market of the Democratic Progressive Party. As long as he blows out his basic market, is because the basic market of the green camp in Chiayi City is higher than that of the blue camp, so it is enough for him to blow out the basic market; , the third one, they are taking advantage of the cold wave to encourage ordinary people who are not the basic market. It is best not to vote. You must be careful that you must keep warm. The weather is cold and freezing. This is his third approach; the fourth approach is that on Saturday, the army is approaching. The so-called army is approaching, which means that all those who choose county and city mayors will come to Chiayi to stand up for Li Junqi. From these 4 items, you can see that the climate does affect turnout.
I once told a story that happened in Penghu. Why did I conclude that Lai Fengwei would definitely lose on November 26th. Because except for the division of his votes, unless the weather is very bad, and the fishermen cannot go out to fish in the sea, they will come to vote. When the weather is good, they all go out to sea. As a result, the weather was very good on November 26, so Lai Fengwei would definitely lose. This is a significant example of the climate impact voting.
Then we have talked back now, Chiayi became December 18, December 18 is Sunday. I once said that "Zhongsheng Club" is a very, very bad unit. It is not only bad but also cruel and bad, but it usually allows you to vote on Saturdays. On Sunday, everyone can travel with peace of mind, but he insists on changing it to Sunday. . Will the person who arranged the itinerary on Saturday come back to vote for Sunday? Although I gave him a little estimate of the votes in Chiayi City, it was probably less than 215,000 votes. If his turnout rate dropped to 40%, it would be almost four times, right? There will be more than 86,000 votes. If
is distributed according to the basic disk, we can calculate that Huang Minhui is better than Li Junqi, which means streamlining and passing the test. Just like the Keelung City election, have you noticed that Li Junqi was once Tsai Ing-wen's deputy secretary, and Tsai Ing-wen has not gone south to help Chiayi stand up so far. Do you know why Tsai Ing-wen didn’t go? Everyone advised her not to go. You are now a box office poison. So you went to see Tsai Ing-wen's three spokespersons. Why didn't Tsai Ing-wen go? That is to say, everyone thinks Tsai Ing-wen is already a box office poison, so your coming will not help you choose the situation, but will have an impact on Li Jun-yi.
So we have to say that the DPP, all he thinks about is elections, he is always dishonest towards a principle, a law, a decree, and his voters. is called "knowing the law to play the method, knowing the law to learn the law to destroy the law. This is also the reason why Tsai Ing-wen is not in Chiayi, because she is afraid that after she goes to Chiayi, it will cause the opposite effect just like Keelung . So when the cold wave comes, everyone should pay attention to keeping warm, but as far as Chiayi is concerned, how will this extended game be played? Of course, Huang Minhui still wins, but she won't win beautifully enough.
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