Recently, after the relaxation of the epidemic, domestic well-known big data research experts conducted big data prediction analysis and announced relevant algorithms during the peak period of infection in various cities in the first round. Among the cities on the prediction list, when will your city enter the first wave of infection peak?
On December 10, a well-known domestic big data research expert (net name "chenqin") announced his research results on social networking websites. He said in his article, " made some new calculations based on the use of search index calculation on December 10, and roughly estimated the peak time and end time of each city. Overall, it is to look at the coverage area of the excess search index. When the coverage area reaches a certain threshold , it means that the population infection reaches a certain threshold, and the infection naturally reaches a peak and end. "
Before, he had analyzed the infection situation and "fever" search index in Taiwan, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Japan, and found a method that may help predict the peak period of infection.
He found that when the epidemic reached its peak, the values of the "cumulative area of the excess fever search index" all reached 80. When the first wave of the epidemic in these two regions ended, the area of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region reached 160, the area of Taiwan reached 200, and the final area of Japan was 250.
Through the rules he discovered, it combined with the actual situation of Shijiazhuang, Xingtai and Baoding in Hebei Province in my country.
He analyzed that since the beginning of the epidemic, Shijiazhuang's "cumulative area of the "excess fever search index" has reached 76, Xingtai has reached 67, and Baoding has also reached 71. Considering that the fever index in Baoding, Shijiazhuang, Xingtai and other places is still rising, conservatively regards 100 as the "cumulative area of the excess fever search index" when the epidemic peaks, and uses 250 as the "cumulative area of the excess fever search index" at the end of the first round of epidemic. This can calculate the peak period of the first round of infection in each city. The following pictures of
are calculated as the results on December 10, 2022:
are calculated as the latest results on December 12, 2022:
Note: This method is applicable in the Google Index, but there is no verification whether the Baidu Index is applicable yet, so the results are for reference only.
Note: Although big data prediction and analysis are one of the most core application values of big data, there is uncertainty in prediction itself, so if you want to improve the accuracy of prediction, you must not talk about the reliability of predictions without departing from application scenarios. At present, not all scenarios are suitable for big data prediction, for example, it is unreliable to make lottery predictions through big data technology.
When judging whether big data prediction is reliable, three factors should be considered. One is whether the application scenario has a certain regularity, the second is whether the data collection and organization of the application scenario are easy to implement, and the third is whether the current computing power can support the data analysis of the application scenario.
Judging from the current algorithm, it may not be possible to achieve enough amounts in data collection, which leads to uncertainty in the results, but overall it still has great research value. After the epidemic situation of
is relaxed, it means that our chances of contacting -positive patients have increased. Under the dual protection of vaccine and drugs, even if we are positive, we must not panic. We must be positive and believe that we will be good. Psychologically enhance your resistance and easily turn to Yin. An optimistic attitude is very important. You must prepare some epidemic prevention materials at home in case of emergency needs. I hope we can get through this difficult time smoothly, and I hope the virus will subside soon.
