The largest military base of the People's Liberation Army, Inner Mongolia Zhurihe Training Base. (Xinhua News Agency)
In recent days, topics about the mainland's "military unification" and the attack on Taiwan by force have been hyped in the US media. Forbes, a famous American financial magazine, quoted several American experts as analyses and speculations: If the mainland attacks Taiwan, it will mobilize 2 million troops, and Taichung Port may become the number one target. In order to make up for the gap in key combat power to attack Taiwan, the mainland may be renovating merchant ships so that when launching amphibious operations against Taiwan, it can invest more troops in the critical first wave of offensives.
If the mainland attacks Taiwan, will it mobilize 2 million troops?
According to Forbes magazine, Ian Easton, a military expert at the Washington-based Washington think tank, pointed out in a new research report that the scale and intensity of the People's Liberation Army's possible attack on Taiwan may be "exceeding human understanding." He said that in the event of a conflict between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, the scale will be "super mega".
Yi Si'an believes that if the People's Liberation Army wants to have any chance of winning in attacking Taiwan, it may have to mobilize up to 2 million troops, as well as thousands of warships carrying hundreds of thousands of navies .
After experiencing anti-ship bomb rain, these attacking troops will then face 500,000 Taiwan troops and Marines that are ready to fight.
PLA Marine Corps. (Naval News)
Taichung Port may become the number one target
Because Taiwan is mountainous, only 14 beaches are suitable for amphibious attacks. Yi Si'an believes that if the mainland really achieves military reunification of Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army may choose not to attack from the beach first, and instead capture at least 1 port for the army to land in Taiwan.
Yi Si'an pointed out in the new research report that research within the PLA shows that beaches and airports can even be regarded as auxiliary, but the core, that is, the fulcrum for attacking Taiwan, is still the local port.
Yi Si'an pointed out in the report that if the People's Liberation Army really has this plan, it may lock in at least 10 major ports. The ideal goal is to develop a complete commercial or industrial port, with beaches and delta on both sides, and the terrain should be quite flat and located in a lightly urbanized area.
Yi Si'an said that according to relevant descriptions, Taichung Port seems to stand out and become the most likely place for the People's Liberation Army to manage to land. He believes that the PLA may have some ways to capture the port, which is only 100 miles (about 160 kilometers) from the mainland, but none of them is simple.
Yi Si'an's research and analysis pointed out that although Taiwan is a difficult hard target, the mainland seems to have made up its mind that even if it takes risks, it will be "unified" sooner or later.
Continental "Dream Orchid" is rolled on the ro/ro ship. (Photo Xinhua News Agency)
makes up for the gap in key combat power to attack Taiwan. The mainland is preparing to do so.
In addition, Forbes also reported that the mainland China expert and lecturer at the Mainland Maritime Research Institute of the US Naval War College pointed out that although the mainland continues to improve its naval capabilities, including the construction of several large amphibious ships, , etc., there is still a clear lack of ships for carrying out large-scale amphibious landings, which makes the outside world doubt whether it has the ability to launch an attack on Taiwan.
However, he pointed out that mainland China may be renovating merchant ships to allow amphibious units to launch attacks at sea, making up for the shortcomings of its amphibious assault ships and dock landing ships , so that more troops can be invested in the critical first wave of offensives when launching amphibious operations against Taiwan.
Kennedy said that an ro-ro-ship "Ban Fen Island" affiliated to COSCO Shipping Company in an amphibious exercise supported the People's Liberation Army in August 2020, it actually verified that the ZTD-05 amphibious assault vehicle was placed at sea, rather than as before, only using port facilities to unload various equipment using port facilities after the PLA's first wave of offensive was successful.
Kennedy said that the total number of civilian ro-roll and roll-off ships in mainland China suitable for supporting the PLA's operations is more than 60, many of which may have the same modification. This will not only strengthen the PLA's ability to launch an amphibious offensive, but will also give it the opportunity to mobilize secretly and reduce the warning time of Taiwan and the United States on the mainland offensive.
Scene of the USS Reagan and the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier battle group in the South China Sea on July 6, 2020.
The United States admitted to Taiwan's secret soldiers' defeat
According to the Defense One and Power Network on the 27th, Haydn, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, admitted in a ceremony on Monday that he had suffered a crushing defeat in various plots of simulated war for Taiwan. He said, "It is not an exaggeration at all, it has a crushing defeat. It has been studying the United States for nearly 20 years. The aggressive red team has just surpassed us. They know exactly what we are going to do before we take action."
Since this military soldiers' push held in October last year was confidential, Pentagon is unwilling to provide its name. However, a Ministry of Defense official revealed that one of the military push incidents involved a war for Taiwan. A key lesson learned by the US is that gathering warships, fighter jets and other military forces in one place will make them vulnerable to attack. Haydn said they want to change the program that guides the U.S. military for decades.
US military is adjusting the deployment of Middle East to be better prepared for the mainland. Haydn said that the United States has not ignored the threat from the Middle East, but has only responded in different ways, so that it can take more effort to deal with China and Russia.
