gold
gold price fell by about 0.03% weekly. After a sharp decline at the beginning of the week, it showed a volatile rebound. Finally, the decline was smoothed out on Friday. There were not many macro events throughout the week. The most important Bank of Canada took the lead in releasing the signal of pausing interest rate hikes . There were also the rise of PPI exceeding expectations. Although the USD index rebounded slightly, it still maintained a weak operation overall. The yield on the ten-year bond also rebounded and ended the four consecutive weeks of decline. Therefore, gold showed a fierce game between bulls and bears, maintaining a trend of volatile consolidation.
market focus is undoubtedly the upcoming interest rate resolution. In addition to paying attention to whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50 basis points as scheduled, which means that the pace of interest rate hikes has slowed down a little. At the same time, it is also necessary to see whether Fed Chairman Powell and whether there are any clear clues in the policy statement regarding the Fed's interest rate hike path next year, such as how many more times will it raise interest rates and how much room is there. Even if some dovish hints are revealed in
, the effect of boosting the entire market sentiment will be very obvious. Therefore, you can pay attention to the clues in these policy statements and Powell's speech, but you should still emphasize that since CPI was announced on Tuesday and interest rate resolution was announced on Wednesday. The two are very close in time, so market sentiment may explode in a concentrated manner, so you must be careful of large fluctuations.
However, as of now, the probability of 50 basis points hikes remains above 70%, which means that the market is not sure that hikes 50 basis points, so now we can only say that the probability is high. If the probability is not fully extended, it means that the rate hikes are not fully priced. If an accident is added to 75 basis points, gold will definitely fall sharply, so the recent trend is relatively cautious. The day before
CPI will be announced. If inflation falls, the market will confirm in advance that the policy will be relaxed. However, if the CPI exceeds expectations, the probability of a large rate hike will be greatly increased. You should also pay attention to Powell's speech after speaking. Powell has released the eagle too many times this year, and the market is a little afraid that he will speak out, so the overall risk should not be underestimated. With such a large uncertainty, it is more important to control risks.
From the technical perspective, the gold price weekly line closed cross star. After a round of rebound, the closing trend is unclear. The daily line closed positive line , which hit the highest point of 1806, which was suppressed by the annual line. I have mentioned before that the resistance range of 1800-1808 will fall back, so it is best to wait and see if it cannot break through. Therefore, it is best to wait and see. If it can effectively break through the range, it will form a "breaking bottom turn" pattern, but from the indicator, it is almost flat, and the moving average also has signs of slowing down, which may be the impact of the news side. All these emotions will eventually be reflected in the technical side. The overall direction is unclear, or it may become an opportunity or risk. Since the market has no direction, it will be known in the market.
US stock
three major stock indexes closed down across the board, among which the energy sector led the decline, especially the rapid decline of at the end of Friday . Although the decline was not large throughout the day, the signal of short is extremely strong. The technical chart of the S&P 500 still has a bad trend, and it looks shaky, falling below the support line and not retracting the support level within three days. This shows that the upward channel since mid-10 has been declared over. The pressure at the 4,000-point integer mark above seems difficult to break through without any favorable conditions.
Nasdaq has been consolidating on sideways, and it can't go up or down. sideways is waiting for changes in the fundamentals of macroeconomic and changes in monetary policy . Even though bond yields have declined in the past decade, the Nasdaq still does not rise. The sideways are the temporary balance between the market bulls and bears, but the stock market always changes at the end of the sideways, and the two major news changes that are about to appear may change the sideways final choice direction.
also has concerns about recession next year. Faced with so many uncertainties, technology stock now needs to narrow the performance differences with cyclical stocks. The three major stock indexes can only usher in a real substantial turn. Otherwise, cyclical stocks' surges and falls backwards will continue to consume market patience and put pressure on investment sentiment.
crude oil
oil prices fell by about 11.2% weekly, and continued to decline, showing a unilateral downward trend. Last weekend, OPEC decided to maintain the current output unchanged, and coupled with the upper limit of the price of the European oil for Russia, oil prices continued to weaken, and the oil and gas mining index also fell unilaterally. The oil and gas sector led the decline in US stocks. The cycle of the stock market is running before the economic cycle, that is, using expectations to price does not require problems. The market began to evaluate the possibility of an economic recession, and the demand outlook is full of pessimism, so funds were the first to express their outflow of the oil and gas sector.
From the technical perspective, the oil price weekly closed with a large negative line and broke, and there is a high probability that there will be a low point. The daily line closed with a low cross. KDJ and RSI indicators were passivated at the low level, so you can tend to look at rebound, but the expectations should not be too high. The moving average bears are arranged in , and the overall trend is downward. Even if there is a rebound, it will not be too big. The oil and gas mining index is similar. The accelerated downward trend has been seriously oversold, and there is a demand for a rebound. On the weekly line, the first two touches of the 60-week moving average can bottom out and rebound. Whether the previous market can be copied this time depends on how to go in the next few days.
or above is purely personal sharing and is not used as investment advice. You can bear the risks of operating based on this and you need to have your own ideas for investment. It is not easy to write. Friends who like it help you like it and follow it. This is the greatest encouragement and support for me. Thank you everyone.
