Daniu Securities - In the early morning of the 9th, Beijing time, the US stock market closed higher on Thursday, after S&P 500 index had fallen for five consecutive trading days. Investors are still evaluating the risks of the U.S. future recession and awaiting Friday's PPI inflation data and next week's Fed monetary policy meeting.
Dow Jones rose 183.56 points, rose 0.55% to 33781.48 points; Nasdaq rose 123.45 points, 1.13%, to 11082.00 points; the S&P 500 rose 29.59 points, or 0.75%, to 3963.51 points.
Before Thursday, the S&P 500 index had fallen for the fifth consecutive trading day, and the index had fallen for eight days in the previous nine trading days.
Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said: "U.S. stock is trying to gain a foothold, and U.S. Treasury shows some signs of profit-taking. But market sentiment remains sluggish. The problem is that the U.S. stock market lacks domestic stimulus. Two important inflation data (PPI and Michigan HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2HTM2 Roe) said: "In the past few days, people have paid more attention to the recession. If those who know the direction of the economy are cutting spending, it proves that the prospect of U.S. economic growth is indeed worrying." Strategists at
Citi believe that the recent excessive rebound in U.S. stocks have caused stock valuations to be disconnected from the bleak prospect of shrinking corporate profits, which will pose risks to market recovery. Robert Buckland, strategist at
Citi, said the current prices of U.S. stocks are "too optimistic". The MSCI U.S. index currently reflects earnings per share will grow by 4% next year, close to analyst consensus, but far higher than Citi's expected 3% contraction.
known as "Doctor Doomsday" economics professor Nuriel Roubini warned on Wednesday that it is unlikely that the U.S. economy is avoiding a recession. He believes that the U.S. economy will fall into its worst recession in more than a decade, and U.S. stocks may fall to the worst level of this bear market.
Roubini said that the Fed's sharp hike in rate under high inflation and low unemployment rate will surely put the US economy in recession.
He said that during short-term and mild recessions, the S&P 500 typically falls 30% from its peak, and fell 50% during the 2008 global financial crisis.
"So, despite our moderate recession, the market is now down and will fall another 15%," Roubini said. If we encounter something worse than a short-term moderate recession, but not as severe as global financial crisis ... the market still has 25% potential downside.
Executives of Bank of America warned that the U.S. economy is slowing.
Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said the U.S. economy may fall into recession in the second half of next year.
JP Morgan (132.16, -0.72, -0.54%) Co-CEO of Consumer and Community Banking Marianne Lake warned that the U.S. unemployment rate could rise in 2023 and then peak at 5% in 2024, which could trigger a "shallow and short-term recession" by the end of next year. David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs (359.14, 1.06, 0.30%), said that the US economy may achieve a soft landing, but it is prone to mild recession. He pointed out that the current consumption situation in the United States is still in a relatively good state.
According to a report released by Nicholas Colas, founder of research firm DataTrek, the model of the New York Federal Reserve measuring the possibility of an economic recession suggests that the probability of the U.S. economy is almost 100% likely to fall into recession next year due to the Fed's interest rate hike.
market focus has shifted to next week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.Currently, the market generally expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, less than the previous four consecutive rate hikes by 75 basis points each, but this may not help alleviate concerns that the Fed's actions to curb the surge in price will lead to a U.S. recession next year.
Investors are also worried that the Fed may maintain a higher interest rate for a longer period of time.
Next Tuesday, the United States will announce the consumer price index (CPI). This economic data will give people a clearer understanding of the inflation situation in the United States.
Thursday's economic data, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that as of the week ended December 3, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States was 230,000, with an expected 230,000, compared with the previous value of 225,000. As of November 26, the number of people who renewed unemployment benefits was 1.671 million, of which 1.6 million were expected, and the previous value was 1.608 million. As of December 3, the average number of initial unemployment benefits that week was 230,000, and the previous value was 228,750.
Focus Stock
U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) confirmed that it attempts to prevent Microsoft (245.42, -1.98, -0.80%) from acquiring Actvision Blizzard (75.16, 0.40, 0.54%). It is said that Microsoft will be sued as early as December 8 for the acquisition of Activision Blizzard and will provide a copy of the administrative complaint soon. The agency said Microsoft may have the ability and motivation to undermine market competition, and Microsoft has said it will retain content for game competitors.
huniu financial analyst Ivan Feinseth lowered Nvidia's target price from $310 to $250 and maintained the stock's buy rating . Its valuation was invisibly reevaluated.
The analyst pointed out that the adjusted target price has more than 55% potential upside compared to the current level. He believes that Nvidia's industry leadership in the field of artificial intelligence , a variety of new products and partnerships enable it to overcome recent adverse factors and prepare for a new business cycle.
Amazon (89.09, -1.26, -1.39%) has launched TIKTOK-style information flow for some users, and plans to launch it to users across the United States in the next few months.
raises Citi Boeing’s target price (179.54, 0.46, 0.26%) from $209 to $222.
Guggenheim raised the target price of the yuan platform from $125 to $130, and Yum Catering Group (127.71, -2.14, -1.65%) raised the target price of the yuan platform from $140 to $145.
Disney (93.38, 0.83, 0.90%) launched the advertising version of Disney+ in the United States, with more than 100 advertisers of various types.
It is reported that Musk has brought Tesla (179.05, 5.61, 3.23%) Greater China President Zhu Xiaotong to Texas, USA to help operate Tesla's super factory in Austin in the state. According to reports, Zhu Xiaotong has arrived in Austin this week and has brought some members of the Chinese engineering team to help supervise the expansion of production capacity. According to people familiar with the matter, it is not clear how long Zhu Xiaotong will stay in Austin and whether he will retain his position in Asia.
It is also reported that Tesla will shorten the shift time of its Shanghai factory and postpone the recruitment of new employees.
Unilever (50.35, -0.05, -0.10%) is considering selling its American ice cream brand for $3 billion. According to media reports, Unilever is considering selling its American ice cream brand, including Klondike and Breyer, for up to $3 billion. But the Magnum and Ben Jerry brands are not considered. The review is still underway and Unilever may decide not to sell it for the time being, people familiar with the matter said. A Unilever representative declined to comment.
U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the emergency use authorization of Pfizer (51.72, -0.06, -0.12%) and BioNTech, Omicron, for emergency use of the adaptive bivalent COVID-19 vaccine for children under 5 years old.
Roche Pharmaceuticals (40.51, 0.04, 0.10%) announced Thursday that its two Alzheimer's disease test kits have obtained 510(k) marketing license from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Running Track Company's third-quarter revenue exceeded expectations and raised its annual revenue guidance.
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mechanism shell (15.39, -0.56, -3.51%) is expected to return to positive for the whole year.
In other markets, the New York Mercantile Exchange's February delivery gold futures price rose $3.50, or 0.2%, and closed at $1,801.50 per ounce on Thursday.
January delivery of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures price fell 55 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $71.46 a barrel.
