For Russia during this period, the situation can be said to be what it is afraid of. Czech claims to be prepared to go to war with Russia, Polish makes harsh words to Russia, Russian local military bases are bombed... A series of farces will inevitably make Putin feel a headache. If the Russian army is trapped in the quagmire of war and the Ukrainian army decides to fight with the Russian army until the last moment, if the Russian army cannot win, an earthquake is likely to occur in Russian politics.
In fact, in the current Russian politics and the people, anti-war sentiment should not be underestimated. Putin's national teacher Du Jin once satirized Putin and said that the current Khlsong is equivalent to Russia's Belgorod, but was eventually abandoned by Russia. The Russian people gritted their teeth about this.
Dujin believes that if the ruler has absolute power when he succeeds, the ruler should bear all responsibilities when he fails. Inside and out, Du Jin sent out a signal that Putin should share power.
Many examples show that the war is a double-edged sword. If Russia wins a great victory in Ukraine, such as taking over the four places in eastern Ukraine and forcing Kiev to sign the underworld alliance, Putin will of course receive support from Russian politicians and the people. However, if the situation changes and Putin's chess move is a move, and the result of waiting for Russia to be defeated by Ukraine, Putin's pressure will double. At that time, the Russian opposition will wait for an opportunity to move and prepare to get rid of Russian control, and may find opportunities to be independent, such as Chechnya .
Russian opposition leader Igor said in an interview that after the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia may split into dozens of countries, and The tragedy of the collapse of the Soviet Union will happen to Russia again. If the Russian army is defeated, those Russian vassal states will likely become independent states, such as Tatarstan Republic .
In order to confirm that the situation is not optimistic, Igor also gave an example. Igor said that 30 years ago, the Republic of Tatarstan launched a "referendum", and the results showed that as many as 61.4% of the people believed that the Republic of Tatarstan should become an independent country.
Of course, this poll data was from 30 years ago, at that time, Russia's head was not Putin. Compared with that time, Russia is now significantly stronger.
According to Igor's statement, if Russia loses to Ukraine, what is waiting for Russia is likely to be divided, and Tatarstan may fire the first shot of independence. Next, many regions will choose to follow suit, and Russia is likely to fall into massive chaos.
Let’s talk about three simple views on this.
First, it is almost clear that no matter what the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Putin will not let "Russia go into pieces" happen. The most typical example is the Second Chechen War led by Putin. In order not to make Chechen independent, Russia tried all its best and paid a heavy price, and eventually won the stability of Chechen.
Therefore, even if the Republic of Tatarstan wants to be independent like the British Scotland and the United States California , the result will be similar. Under the current situation, it is unlikely that Russia will collapse.
Second, whether it is Dukin's satire of Putin, or the warning issued by Igor, or the appearance of Russian deserters on the Ukrainian battlefield, and some Russian people are unwilling to respond to the conscription, they all confirm one thing: that is, Russia cannot afford to lose this war.
If the Russian army defeats Ukraine, or is forced to surrender to the NATO led by the United States, those who are waiting for Russia will be attacked by groups. Countries that are already wary of Russia, such as Belarus , Armenia and the five Central Asian countries, may also be gradually drifting away from Russia.
Within Russia, the Russian opposition, who originally wanted to force Putin to defend, may also take the opportunity to provoke trouble with the support of the United States, and Putin's influence will also decline.
Third, The consequences that Russia has to bear after losing the war determine that Russia cannot accept failure. No matter what the situation of the war is, no matter what kind of help the United States, Europe and North Korea provide to Ukraine, Putin will not accept the return of failure because Russia has paid too much.
To some extent, it is almost impossible for the United States to push Russia to a cliff with thousands of nuclear warheads . But on the other hand, Russia can ensure that it is invincible militarily, but it cannot guarantee that it can defeat Ukraine.
From this perspective, the advice issued by Merkel makes sense. The United States and Europe cannot regard Putin's warning as a bluff. For the United States, NATO and Ukraine, the best choice is to put an end to the war in the right way at the right time and in the right way, rather than being determined to defeat Russia.
Of course, for Putin, if Russia cannot win, the best solution is to take advantage of the situation instead of trying to the end. Otherwise, those who wait for Russia may be asking for trouble and keeping up trouble.
But the problem is: neither Russia nor Ukraine can make concessions easily. The bargaining chips that Russia and Ukraine cannot defeat on the battlefield can’t be imagined at the negotiating table. This is reality.
has to fight against the entire NATO alone and deal with the troubles within Russia. It has to be said that Putin is indeed too difficult.
