The opposition in Russia believes that due to the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia will face the crisis of "second disintegration". The huge Russian Federation will be divided into small countries. The first to announce its separation from the Russian Federation is not the Chechnya , known as the anti-bone, but another place - Tatarstan .
(location of the Republic of Tatarstan)
We will not comment on this view for the time being. However, most people probably don’t know much about where the Republic of Tatarstan is, but its capital, , Kazan, , is believed to be familiar with many people.
Speaking of this place, we have to mention Golden Horde , one of the four major khanates in Mongolia. In the late 15th century, the Golden Horde split into several regimes, and Kazan Khanate is one of them. Historically, the Kazan Khanate once competed for the great power of the Grand Duchy of Moscow. They have strong military strength and are one of the most powerful enemies facing Moscow in the process of unifying Russia.
However, the Kazan Khanate was eventually conquered by Tsar Ivan IV , and the Duchy of Moscow completely controlled the Volga River basin, laying an important foundation for Russia's later territorial expansion to the east. Its significance is equivalent to the Qin destruction of Zhao during the Warring States Period.
(Tatarstan's national clothing)
After unification, in order to manage this region, Tsarist Russian and the Soviet Union have always adopted a policy of differentiation and assimilation against the local Tatars , that is, the Turks in Russia. Despite this, Tatarstan, which is centered on Kazan, still retains a strong independence due to race, history, culture and other reasons. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tatarstan's separation forces rose. Under their impetus, Tatarstan held a referendum in 1992. The votes showed that more than 61% of voters in the region wanted to leave the Russian Federation.
In order to retain Tatarstan, the Yeltsin government made great concessions. In 1994, the Yeltsin government signed a treaty with Tatarstan. The treaty stipulates that Tatarstan, as a sovereign state, can participate in foreign political and economic activities and enjoy "special treatment" in taxation, finance and other aspects. The treaty is equivalent to making Tatarstan a "country among the country" enjoying privileges in Russia. The treaty expired in 2017, and Tatarstan also lost its special status.
(Former Russian President Yeltsin)
There is a reason why the Yeltsin government was willing to make such a big concession at that time. On the one hand, Russia needed to concentrate on dealing with Chechnya, which had a stronger separatist approach, and had no time to take care of Tatarstan; on the other hand, Kazan was Russia's sixth largest city with a population of over one million. It is not only a historical and cultural center, but also an important center of industry, science and technology, national defense and education. Its status is irreplaceable. Before participating in the revolution, Lenin studied in the Law Department of Kazan University in ; during the Patriotic War, Kazan undertook a large number of industrial equipment and personnel from the west, continuously providing weapons and ammunition to the frontlines.
Overall, Tatarstan is indeed a potential unstable factor for Russia, especially after the loss of special status and the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which is even more worrying. After the Putin government announced the launch of partial mobilization in September, fierce reactionary protests broke out in Tatarstan and its surrounding areas. Many locals believe that "this is a war between the Slavs, not our war." Although the protest was later quelled, the "anti-phase" and the seeds that were not conducive to unity have been planted.
(Russian President Putin)
However, there is a saying that although the contradiction between the central and local governments of Russia has been amplified after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the problem of uneven distribution of interests has been put on the table again, it has not yet reached the level of "second disintegration".
Whether it is the Russian opposition or the Ukrainian media, after encountering some losses on the Russian front, they fully utilized their imagination and talked about the so-called "Russia disintegration", which was obviously a little too early to be happy.
On the one hand, Russia still has strong control over local areas, and this control has long been institutionalized.During the Yeltsin era, various parts of Russia could also take advantage of the weak Moscow and ask for prices back and forth with Kremlin , picking for many choices. But in Putin's era, Russia gradually got out of the economic difficulties left by the Soviet Union, and this trick was useless.
(The strength of the Russian central government is still strong)
, especially , the victory of the Second Chechen War not only established the authority of Moscow, but also shocked potential separatist forces in various places - of course, including Tatarstan. On this basis, Putin further improved Russia's federal system and established 8 federal districts, each district chief was only responsible to Moscow; at the same time, Putin also improved the local election system. Although the Kremlin does not have the power to appoint and remove local chiefs, it has the power to supervise. The central government can suspend their posts at any time and replace them with "acting chiefs".
On the other hand, Russia's economic center is still close to the western region of Europe, or in other words, Russia's economic development is still inseparable from the two cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg . In contrast, Russia's local economy is relatively weak and requires a large amount of blood transfusions from the central government. Many local governments are very clear that once they leave the Russian Federation and face the cruel international economic environment directly, they are basically uncompetitive and are likely to be lambs that can be harvested by Western capital.
