During the World Cup, I heard many people talking about the problem of tacit understanding of the match-up. Actually, what I want to say is that in the football lottery industry, many of them can be reflected in the handicap (including counterfeit balls, etc.). I believe you are very unbelievable about this proposition. As for how to observe, please watch carefully below.
No winter is insurmountable, and no spring will not come. The slowest step is not a small step, but hovering, and the fastest step is not sprinting, but persistence.
The wonderful thing about football lottery investment is that it not only makes you win wonderfully, but also makes you lose wonderfully. In short, once you enter the football lottery investment industry, once you take football lottery as your partner, you will be destined to be unpredictable in your life.
The old saying says, "Men are afraid of choosing the wrong career, and women are afraid of choosing the wrong man." When you enter the football lottery, you must be cautious. This is a strange industry that is not easy to enter or even more difficult to exit. On the surface, it does not require you to be in the wind and rain, and you can still have some connections with white-collar workers, but in fact, football lottery is an industry that is deep and hard, and you may not be able to touch its essence in your entire life.
A game, in your eyes, your goal is to study the results and gain benefits; the dealer's goal is to cover up the results and obtain your principal.
principle, every person who wins money actually wins money from other idle players. Don’t think you are awesome. If you don’t defeat the dealer, there is never a possibility. So how to study the choice of analytical events? There are many seniors, and the road to learning has never stopped. I talk about making notes, mainly for the sake of my own summary and become my own thing.
1. The research process of the event:
So the research of the event, as Master Gu Xing said, should take the current scene as objective and conduct analysis. So what to analyze? I believe that the first point is to study the fundamentals of , the second point is to judge the distribution, and the third point is to study the current relationship between the three odds.
1. Fundamental study: Fundamental study Because the banker has a wide range of losses, the only advantage of the idle player is that what you can master must be the subject matter used by the banker. What you don’t know must not be considered. So give up the rumor, give up the imagination, and calmly judge the recent situation, home and away ability, performance battles, fighting spirit and popularity.
2. Judgment of distribution: The judgment of distribution is the result that everyone will summarize, but are you right? This question obviously directly PK 99% of people. Practice has proved that the judgment of distribution is the main factor that directly leads to whether you answer the questions accurately. If you cannot see the distribution accurately, it means failure.
3. Research on three odds: When you complete the first two events, you should understand that you are very close to the results, but I’m sorry, if you are satisfied like this, you will still fall off the cliff after taking this step. The structure and water level of the three odds are the last barrier you choose. Can the dealer allow you to easily obtain it?
2. Research on fundamental interpretation:
study fundamentals, my understanding is a comprehensive judgment with in-depth levels. Personal experience, strength - recent situation - home and away game, past results. How to understand? Arsenal vs. Middlesbrough . The difference in strength will inevitably lead to the distinction of preliminary understanding. So how to define strength? Obviously, the definition of strength is a process from big to small. If you are famous outside, you can directly judge it. When you gradually narrow the impact to the same level, you must consider the current situation of the second part. The gap in strength is not big, and the recent ability is the biggest reflection. Do you need to say more about 411 vs. 303, the natural host and Ucommunity? On this basis, the judgment of home and access abilities will be directly added and subtracted points. A team with 600 away game 006 must also be lacking in trust. A team with 213 home game 510 is still the effect of bonus; one of the problems that exists after the above is the understanding of the past performance. The double-killed and all-drawn are a definition of strength. The judgment in this aspect is more like a multiplication after your summary of the previous one. Is it increased or weakened.
has limited expression, so I can understand it myself.For example: How to understand
? Segment 2H2015 season match, home team ranked 17 and away team ranked 5. As a middle-level team, the home team is a regular performance, and the away team is obviously high in strength, so the performance of its recent performance has a decline. There is no match between the match, but I have an impression of the strong and weak away team. Based on comprehensive judgment, the visiting team has reverse pulling force.
3. Distribution view:
Everyone has different distributions and different understandings. My understanding of distribution is actually two types: buffering and mean. Why do you understand so much? This is not a subversion of Euclidean thinking, but a general refinement statement: the buffering can distinguish between four types: straight, reverse, divergent and non-divergent; the moderate can be divided into three types: dispersed, non-divergent and static.
So how do you understand the two types of distributions? Win is one loss to understand. In terms of buffering, smooth means optimism about the winning side, and the choice of draws and losses is weakened in turn. On this basis, the depth of smoothness is derived, that is, the degree of smoothness. Strong smoothness will inevitably have no pulling force, and slightly smoothness will become a tendency; reverse is different. Reverse is a concept of reverseness, and its existence is a manifestation of not smoothness enough. How to understand it? The counter-revolution cannot happen to Barcelona , which has won 6 consecutive victories. The occurrence of the reverse is based on your handicap or win or lose. It is just because of the odds problem, this problem is prone to occur in the 1/2/3 area, and it is difficult to encounter above the 4th zone, because the handicap itself is mixed with the direction of distribution; the understanding of divergence and non-divergence is that the definition of strength between the host and the guest is not perfect enough. Isn’t it normal for the mid-level team to win the middle and lower? This lack of strength gap leads to interference from factors such as recent situation and past performance, which leads to a distinction between whether a party is strongly dispersed and whether the balance compensation is concerned. In terms of the doctrine of the mean, it is actually just a Chinese-style view, because the doctrine of the mean means unclear, what is unclear? When it is difficult to distinguish between different things in all aspects, it is meant to be the doctrine of the mean. The definition of the doctrine of the mean includes three types: one is that both the host and the guest are strong, and the winner is normal, so it can be understood even if the winner is neither good, so it can be understood even if the winner is not good; the last one is perfect and unsolvable.
4. Understanding of the three odds:
The final result of the study is a perfect interpretation of logical thinking after the comprehensive understanding of the above items. We need to be clear about the rules of the choice of the idle player to understand the rationality of the project. Fortunately, my second brother made a weird actuarial data, which seemed ordinary but was extraordinary. So I talk about recording and communicating and distinguishing each one. This is both a summary and a redemption.
First of all, a game is eye-catching. How to judge who will play wins, draws, and losses in ? The first point is to understand the real chance of a game. The probability is the real possibility of the three events drawn by the banker perfectly, and it is also a performance of reasonable layout. How to obtain it? Common sense is difficult to obtain, but actuarialism does, how to verify it? Let's take a look.
Example 1: Event Category: Spanish Second Division League Starting Time:
vs. Teams: Huesca VS Osasuna Special Definition: Guest
fundamental
Home Team: 222/222, the recent situation is average, the home court is average, the league is actually 123;
away team: 222/213, the recent situation is declining, the away game is unstable;
past record: 104, the past record is not in the main game, but the away team's advantage is reflected.
broad and solid positioning: main area 1 real-time positioning: area 1 market port
distribution identification: popularity and ranking directly cause a reverse, but there are also hidden worries about the visiting team.
Actuarial: 2.28 3.12 3.02
Event Analysis:
So the actuarial comparison is based on WL: the winning loss is actually open, the draw loss is slightly lower, and the loss is slightly higher.
from an actuarial level, we may see that the home team has a high chance of winning, while the away team has a slightly lower chance of winning than a tie.
home team will be in real zone 1, and choose zone 2 to low water at the opening, and the actual position will be in real position.
combined with the integrity of the entire handicap, we can see that the final handicap is essentially a low position. LB is the visiting team's handicap in the initial handicap, and after a huge change, it becomes a low position. How to understand actuariality in
? From the perspective of actuarial comparison structure, I understand that the combination of the main win and the actual position in Zone 1 should be selected, the flat compensation and the top position, and the negative compensation should be selected.It is understood that when it comes to the actual market, it is understood that the reverse theme of negative losses should be fully utilized in the market and the main winning chips should be spread. What about the actual market? Although the flatness of WL is moderate in structure, it is already the lowest long-term loss in Zone 1. This is a manifestation of the flatness space, while LB calmly uses the 94 system to reflect the flatness. At this time, we can clearly clarify: the low-level delays the dispersed effect of the negative losses on the main victory, causing the negative losses to hit at a high level in the structural structure and the chips are lost.
result judgment: win away.
summary of experience: In reverse themes, the use of low flat water level or deep flat water level in structure will hinder the function of the theme, that is, the chips do not flow to the reverse side.
example 2: Event category: French Ligue 2 League Start time :
vs. team: Nimes VS Brest Special definition: No
fundamental
Home team: 123/141, the recent situation is sluggish, and many draws at home;
away team: 213/213, the recent situation is average, and the away game is average;
past record: 032, the home game is 2-0, the home team lost 2-0 away in the first time this season.
wide and solid positioning: guest area 2 real positioning: zone 1 trading port
distribution identification: comparison of recent situation and past performance overall, the main win is natural confidence, and according to the real trading port, it is understood as a reverse direction.
Actuarial: 2.90 2.89 2.52
Event analysis:
WL wins and loses low opening , tied losses actual opening, negative losses high opening ; change shifts and reverses.
The away team actually has the advantage, which is a relatively weak forward distribution in the second zone, but the dealer created a reverse flavor when opening the market. From the actuarial level, if the away win is normal, it can open normally and force the tie.
One-time compensation initial market has high water in the first zone, and the structure is short-term compensation, which further reflects the taste of reverse. The mean short-term compensation under the same return is naturally to the right; the change of market still maintains the main handicap, and the water rises at the flat position during the precipitation process and maintains the minimum mean structure. The middle-time compensation actually tops the flat, which accelerates the right shift of the chips, and the main victory reduces the compensation and forms a small amount of meat, which is not conducive to winning.
result judgment: the main win will be played.
summary experience: In actuarial, the home team will have a strong opening, and the reverse distribution will be used to make a moderate loss, and the chips will be clearly moved. The weak side will precipitate one stone and two birds with one stone, optimize the compensation, and make a high profit.
example 3: Event category: A-League Start time:
vs. team: Melbourne City VS Western Sydney Special definition: Strong dialogue
fundamentals
Home team: 411/312, good recent situation, good home court, worry about not winning in the last two games;
away team: 420/321, good recent situation, good away game, unbeaten in 10 games;
past record: 123/104, home team lost the home team, and the home team lost 0-3 home in the first leg of this season.
broad and solid positioning: main area 2/3 real positioning: area 1 trading port
distribution identification: the overall comparison of recent situation and past performance, under the strong, the main confidence is insufficient and full of anti-scent.
Actuarial: 2.03 3.42 3.28
Event Analysis:
WL wins and losses open high, ties and losses open low, losses open low; reverses.
The home team actually had the advantage, and chose to reverse the market at the opening, and the reverse trend directly turned into a forward situation. Judging from this point alone has led to the accumulation of chips in the visiting team, which is not a reasonable choice. Back to the flat payroll, flat payroll is still a moderate position in structure. Then we can find that because it becomes a smooth distribution, this flat actually maintains the visiting team's chips in passing chips. It is clearer from the LB's trading that the negative payroll is transmitted in the positive trading session, and the change of the top flat payroll reduces the space for winning payroll step by step.
result judgment: the main win will be played.
summary of experience: In actuarial, the reverse distribution with inverse turns into a straight distribution, which actually strengthens the confidence in the original reverse direction, making chips difficult to flow out, and the flat compensation supports maintenance, resulting in the actual advantage of one compensation.
Event category: Serie A League Start time: 2016.01.10 22:00
vs. teams: Turin VS Empoli Special definition: No
fundamentals
Home team: 213/222, the recent situation is sluggish, the home court is average, and the three rounds are not won;
away team: 411/321, the recent situation is good, the away game is good, and only the top Inter Milan;
record: 011, the past record is long, the home team has no victory last season, and the disadvantage is.
broad and solid positioning: main area 3 real positioning: area 1 trading port
distribution identification: the overall comparison of recent situation and past performance, under the strong, the main confidence is insufficient and full of anti-scent.
Actuarial: 1.79 3.53 4.6
Event Analysis:
WL wins and losses open high, draws and losses open low, and losses open low.
The home team actually has the advantage, and the opening of the market selects low water in the 3 zones, that is, approaching the real position.
WL/LB initial market losses are lower and higher, but the average losses are lower than the actuarial value and structural position. How to understand actuariality in
? With the reverse distribution, the next round should be played reasonably. The flat compensation should be at least in the moderate position to pass the chips to the negative. The current flat trading is lower than the actuarial and structure, which slows down the right shift of the chips, that is, "there is a scattered, the low and the flat hinder the dispersion", and the straight road cannot be drawn. At the same time, the existence of the away team theme increases the confidence of away victory and strikes, and the chips are also diverted to the flat compensation.
result judgment: win away.
summary experience: In actuarial, the distribution with inverses, the main winning structure has a low position and is supplemented by low flatness, which is not conducive to the dispersion, that is, the main winning advantage is disadvantageous, and the chips are not conducive to volatility. The question worth reflecting on is that the actuarial calculation of the main victory is so low. If the main victory is really, how should we pay the penalty?
