Offshore RMB against the US dollar exchange rate has retreated to 7.16, which has previously risen to 7.02, and is now constantly falling. You can ask: Is it going to depreciate again?
In fact, the market has already smelled the central bank's need to flood the market. This is to protect real estate.
The 16 items in the housing market will definitely be released in the end, otherwise, where will the money come from?
1 November 15th, the central bank made 850 billion MLF one-year period.
at the end of the year, there may be big moves.
, just look at the M2 data for November released in mid-December.
is still global now, so this M2 data is all real.
like some data, you know.
The current globalization is actually to kick Russia out. Whoever has a good relationship with Russia and violates the US sanctions on Russia will be jointly punished and kicked out.
At the current depreciation rate, it should break through the previous position of 7.37 in early December. Then, in mid-December, after the Federal Reserve hikes rate by 250 basis points again, the exchange rate will break through 7.5.
Of course, breakdown 7.5 may also come early.
At that time, it depends on whether the central bank will continue to release money. If you continue to release the money, you will directly be at 8.0, and you may hesitate at 7.85 and 1:1 Hong Kong dollars.
The key is whether the central bank will let go of water.
Against the backdrop of the Fed's violent interest rate hike Balance reduction , the central bank has released money and the RMB will definitely depreciate.
Next year, since the United States should have fallen into a recession, U.S. import demand will decline. It is highly likely that my country's exports will be worse than this year next year. In this way, the RMB for next year will depreciate due to weak exports.
may be at 8.5. Of course, if the central bank does not let go of money and raises interest rates, there is no need to depreciate. After all, the euro has risen back.
However, in this real estate market, look at foreclosed houses and look at new house sales. It is estimated that the price will be released.
Today, the central bank conducted 132 billion 7-day reverse repurchase . The money was in the market for 7 days and the central bank took it back seven days later. It can be said that there is still a lack of liquidity in the market.
Although September is 262 trillion M2 and October is 261 trillion M2, may not continue to fall, but the currency depreciates . In December, it may be 265 trillion M2.
After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points in December, it raised interest rates by 425 basis points, which is much higher than the RMB interest rate.
