This week's trading time has passed. Although the main board index has been rising steadily, most individual stocks have not performed well. From yesterday to today, some major events will also affect the trend of A shares next week. The US "non-farm" data is strong, and the Chinese concept stock is active. Can it stimulate A-shares to continue to strengthen next week?
1. Message analysis
At the special meeting on Evergrande Group’s maintenance and delivery work held on the evening of December 2, Xu Jiayin said that 44,000 sets of delivery will be completed in December. "There are 29 days left this month, the time is tight and the task is heavy. All employees of Evergrande must unswervingly fulfill our main responsibilities, never give up and work hard to ensure the completion of the annual building handover task." He said. Yesterday, the constant remarks about Xu Jiayin had a direct impact on the trend of the real estate sector stock price . This time, Xu Jiayin "appeared on the screen" with rumors undefeated. It is good news for the real estate sector trend next week. On the evening of December 1, Vanke issued an announcement stating that the company's largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, requested the company's shareholders' meeting to authorize the board of directors to issue no more than 20% of the new shares in A shares and/or H shares . On the same day, Lujiazui announced that the company is planning to issue shares and pay cash to purchase assets and raise supporting funds; China Fortune Land Development and Tiandiyuan also issued reminder announcements on the planning of private placement of stocks. The relaxation of policies has given leading real estate companies a respite. Major real estate companies will definitely seize the policy opportunity to carry out refinancing . The positive news of the real estate sector has not been fully released! Before the market opened on Friday (December 2), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the far-higher-than-expected non-farm employment data for November. The report shows that the U.S. labor market is still strengthening, and the job market cooling that the Federal Reserve hopes to see is still not coming. This has lowered the expectation of slowing down the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in . Let's observe further. Affected by this news, large U.S. bank stocks fell, and large tech stocks also performed poorly. Chinese concept stocks were active, and Chinese stocks listed in the list of soared collectively again on Friday. Sunde Institutional , Zhihu , Qitouzhao , Youxin and other increase by more than 30%. Among the new forces in car manufacturing, Xiaopeng Motors rose 14.79%, NIO rose 8.52%, and Ideal Auto rose 6.95%. Alibaba rose 4.68%, up 19.1% this week, Bilibili rose 16.57%, up 60.91%, JD and Pinduoduo rose 5% and 3.1% respectively. This trend has greatly driven the rise of FTSE A50 stock index futures. After experiencing a long-term sharp decline, it is normal for a mid-level rebound in Chinese concept stocks.
2. Market index analysis
Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index was analyzed significantly. Today, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index was focused on analyzing .
First look at the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index. Last night to this morning, the FTSE A50 index futures rose by more than 1%, which will affect the opening on Monday, resulting in a high probability of opening higher. However, in the end, we will still return to the laws of A-shares.
On Thursday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index opened sharply higher and then closed lower, and the closing increase narrowed significantly. This high opening is a shot of stimulant for many people. After the sharp rise on November 29, it seemed that the differences in A-share market were eliminated. People who were bullish were trying hard to be bullish, while fewer people were bearish. Most retail investors basically follow the market. A big positive line changes the three views. Now it is a big positive line plus a sharp opening gap. How can retail investors not be excited? Therefore, there are many retail investors who buy on this day. As long as you buy on this day, you will be basically in a loss state at the close. The main force's sinister intentions can be seen. However, the tossing did not end there. On Friday, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index opened low and closed low slightly. Although the decline was not large, it was enough to increase the losses of investors chasing high on Friday. This trend reflects the main funds do not want the chips that chase high prices to be eliminated smoothly.So, under normal circumstances, the probability of the index continuing to adjust at the beginning of next week is very high. If the FTSE A50 index has a significant rise, if it causes the index to open significantly higher on Monday, it is easy to see a low closing again.
So, at the beginning of next week, the probability of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index opening high and closing low and closing is very high. At present, the factors that affect the mid-term strengthening of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index still exist. Although there has been a slight improvement, the degree of improvement is not high. The annual line accelerates downward, and the downward speed of the six-year line has not changed. Only has changed sixty-day moving average and twenty- daily moving average , but this is not the main thing. As long as the half-year line does not change, it will be too difficult for the index to continue to strengthen. Thursday's index barely approached the half-year line, but it returned in vain. This is the direct reaction of stress!
If you want to successfully cross the half-year line, repair the half-year line. There are only two ways: by oscillating for a long time between the half-year line and the 60-day moving average, or continuing to accelerate the first half-year line and adjusting above the half-year line. The second method is too difficult, the first is the regular trend. But the second trend is suspected of breaking the position, which is that effectively falls below the 60-day moving average at the daily line level. This standard must be strict! As long as the index effectively falls below the 60-day moving average, this round of rebound will end.
This is the best strategy at present. As for the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, you should not blindly be bullish or be bearish! Just set the critical point! Objectively speaking, the index is relatively risky, but it has not been confirmed.
3. Recent risk points
First of all, it is whether the Fed's pace of interest rate hikes has really slowed down, which is the most important factor. Secondly, it is the control of the epidemic! The second factor is becoming clearer and is a positive one. However, the first factor is that the variables are too large, so we still need to take them seriously.
Personal opinions, for reference only!
