Whether it is among the lottery players of digital lottery or fixed odds lottery, there is a "must win" betting method. This betting method is said to be able to win almost 100% if used properly.

2025/09/0919:35:34 hotcomm 1721

Whether it is a digital lottery or a fixed odds lottery player, there is a "must win" betting method. This betting method is said to be able to win by almost 100% as long as it is used properly.

This is the "double-in" betting method. The specific implementation method of this betting method is:
first set up an initial betting fund, such as 2 yuan. After starting betting, if you buy, the next bet will still bet with the initial betting funds. If you don’t buy it, then use twice the last bet capital next time to bet until you buy it again.
For example, the first bet is 2 yuan, and I won the buy; the second time I still bet 2 yuan, but I didn’t buy it; the third time I bet 4 yuan, but I didn’t buy it; the fourth time I bet 8 yuan, but I won the buy it; the fifth time I go back to the beginning, and I bet 2 yuan.
continues like this, and after each bet of , it doubles the additional bet until it makes a profit, and then recovers the previous losses and obtains additional income.
So how effective is this betting method? Can really "win" or "profit"?
Let's now assume a virtual lottery to see what the facts are. There is such a lottery, with a bet of 2 yuan per bet, and the probability of winning is 50%. If you win, you will get 4 yuan, which means you will make a profit of 2 yuan after deducting the principal.
First, let’s see if it is really “must win”.
Buy 2 yuan for the first time:
lose: lose 2 yuan
win: win 4 yuan; profit: 2 yuan
lose last time, buy 4 yuan for the second time:
lose: lose 4 yuan
win: win 8 yuan; profit: 4 yuan
lose last time, bet 8 yuan for the third time:
lose: lose 8 yuan
win: win 16 yuan; profit: 8 yuan
Since the probability of winning is 50%, if this continues, you will win sooner or later. Therefore, if has enough financial support and keeps investing, this betting method can indeed achieve "must win".
Secondly, let’s see if we can really achieve “profit” based on this “must win”?
We will analyze this problem from the perspective of 's expected returns . (For the explanation of expected returns, you can see the article "Is it ridiculous to try to change your destiny by buying lottery tickets? Not as simple as you think" )
We slightly change the profit calculation of the above three bets, and see the cumulative loss of and the cumulative profit of for each bet.
Buy 2 yuan for the first time:
lose: lose 2 yuan
win: win 4 yuan; profit: 2 yuan
expectation return = 50% * 2-50% * 2=0 yuan
lose last time, buy 4 yuan for the second time:
lose: cumulative loss 6 yuan
win: win 8 yuan; cumulative profit: 2 Yuan
cumulative expected return = 50%2-50%6=-2 yuan
If you lose last time, you will bet 8 yuan for the third time:
lose: If you lose: 14 yuan
win: 16 yuan; cumulative profit: 2 yuan
cumulative expected return = 50%2-50%14=-6 yuan
What can you see? In fact, the cumulative profit of each bet by is equal to the initial betting capital you set, while the cumulative loss is constantly increasing exponentially, so the cumulative expected income is constantly decreasing, and is less than 0. In other words, you are constantly amplifying the risks you bear, but the returns have not changed.

Therefore, although the betting method of "double-in" seems to achieve "a sure win", it is to win fixed profits on the basis of continuously expanding the risks. Once the "double-in" cannot continue, it will suffer unbearable losses. It is not possible to "make a profit" under "must win".

In fact, whether it is a lottery, stock or other investment method, whether you can make a profit does not depend on what kind of betting or investment skills are used. The key is whether the expected return of betting or investment can be greater than 0. The different betting or investment techniques are designed to maximize profits when the expected returns are greater than 0. This will be discussed later.

YiranShensen

hotcomm

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