Non-agricultural data is coming: U.S. employment expectations are better than previous values. According to a Reuters survey, economists predicted that the number of new non-farm employment population will increase by 200,000, less than the previous value of 261,000;

2025/09/0817:06:36 hotcomm 1742

Non-agricultural data is coming: U.S. employment expectations are better than the previous value

Today (December 2) at 21:30 pm, the United States will announce the non-agricultural employment data and unemployment rate for November.

According to a survey by Reuters , economists predicted this issue of data (average): the number of new non-agricultural employment population is 200,000, less than the previous value of 261,000; the unemployment rate is 3.7%, the same as the previous value. - If the employment data released in the final are better than expected, it will benefit the US dollar, suppressing the price of commodities such as precious metals and nonferrous metals; otherwise, it will bring increased benefits to the commodity.

Non-agricultural data is coming: U.S. employment expectations are better than previous values. According to a Reuters survey, economists predicted that the number of new non-farm employment population will increase by 200,000, less than the previous value of 261,000; - DayDayNews

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Why does non-agricultural data attract widespread attention in the market:

Single from the perspective of US dollar and precious metals, it should be said that there is currently no data that can affect the market more than non-agricultural ones.

First of all, the employment situation report is very timely and will be announced just one week after the month I observed.

Secondly, this report is rich and specific in terms of the job market and household income, and this information is useful for predicting the economy.

Third, wages and salary for employment constitute the main source of income for the family. The more workers earn, the more they buy, the more they will play a role in driving the economy forward. If there are fewer people working, it will lead to a decrease in spending and the company will suffer.

It is also worth mentioning that the quality of the job market has also greatly affected the decisions of the Federal Reserve . Powell has repeatedly mentioned whether the labor market has reached "full employment", and the "core factor" in the Federal Reserve's adjustment of the path to hiccups at .

ADP data is not as expected:

monthly ADP employment data was released before the non-agricultural period (the Wednesday of non-agricultural week) and could have a certain "foresight" effect in the later period, so there is usually an alias for "small non-agricultural period" in the industry.

This week, the number of ADP employment in the United States recorded an increase of 127,000 in November, significantly lower than expected 200,000 and the previous value of 239,000, the smallest increase since January 2021. - On the same day the data was released, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell directly stated that in December, considering the avoidance of economic damage and excessive tightening, interest rate hikes may be slowed down. Ultimately, the US dollar fell rapidly and brought about a full-line strengthening of commodities.

In response to this, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson commented: It is difficult to determine whether the labor market has reached a turning point, but our data shows that the Federal Reserve's austerity policy is affecting employment creation and wage growth. In addition, companies are no longer in over-recruitment mode. Fewer and fewer people are resigning, and the economic recovery after the epidemic is stabilizing.

City Index Analyst Matt Simpson believes investors' attention is now turning to non-farm employment data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday, which could impact the Fed's policy decision. A strong jobs report will give the Fed a green light to continue hikes when inflation remains high, which is bad for gold. A weak jobs report may benefit gold as it indicates that consumer demand will decline in the future, a sign of deflation.

Note: The following are the expectations of major institutions for non-agricultural projects tonight

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