This week, northbound funds continued to buy and buy, and only after selling a small amount of 37.60 on Monday, foreign capital swept more than 30 billion yuan in succession from Tuesday to Friday. However, A shares were slightly weak in the last two trading days. In the past two days, rose and fell back to . Today, the transaction volume of in the two markets significantly reduced the volume of to 0.86 trillion, indicating that market sentiment has turned to cautious and has a heavier fear of high esteem.
yesterday we also mentioned that domestic investment has different ideas from foreign investment. Foreign capital attaches great importance to certainty and trends. Since November 11, foreign capital has turned into optimism about A-shares after seeing the US dollar peak and domestic epidemic policy adjustments, so it has been continuously buying at the bottom. Domestic investors like to look back and forth, like to do "small compositions" and ambush and cash, and their operations are short-term, for fear of being trapped.
However, it is difficult for A-shares to fall here. Although domestic institutions are afraid of this and that, I believe that most institutions are confident about economic recovery next year, and it is risk of missing out on their positions easily. In addition, there are several major meetings to be held in December, and there is a large room for policy game. Next, the majority of investors need to pay attention to the following major events:
First, the United States will release the unemployment rate and non-agricultural employment data in November tonight. This is the more important reference data before the Federal Reserve 21 December 1 rate hike . There is also this reason for the A-shares shrinking volume fluctuation today.
However, we believe that the Fed rate hike in December 50BP is a high probability event. Even if the non-farm employment data tonight exceeds expectations, it cannot recover the decline of the US dollar. Anyone with discerning eyes knows that the US economy is on the recession. If the Fed raises interest rates 75BP in December, it will only increase the risk of a hard landing in the US economy. It is believed that based on economic and unemployment considerations, the Federal Reserve will appropriately delay the rate of interest rate hikes.
Second, according to the website of the Chinese Consulate General in Dubai on November 22, the first China-Arab Summit will be held in Saudi in early December. This is a major event for the improvement of the quality and growth rate of China-Arab relations, and is a milestone in the history of China-Arab relations. Today, the A-share cross-border payment sector has performed.
In addition, media reports have previously reported that Saudi Arabia is considering using RMB to replace US dollar to settle Sino-Saltz oil transactions, which may be announced at this China-Arab summit. As we all know, after the collapse of Bretton Woods system , a major cornerstone of the hegemony of the US dollar is binding oil transactions.
So far, the dollar index has fallen from 114 to 104, and has plummeted by 8%. The RMB approached the 7 mark for the first time after falling below 7 in September. This is still based on the continuous interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve, which shows that the market's confidence in the US dollar is weakening. With the diversification of foreign exchange reserves in many countries around the world and the internationalization of RMB , the high point of this round of US dollar index may be the last glory of the US dollar, and the hegemony of the US dollar will be gradually weakened.
Third, there will be political meetings and economic work conferences in December, which will set the tone for next year's economic work, which is also the key to the trend of A-shares in the next two months.
Finally, a brief look at the market. As of the close, Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.29%, the ChiNext Index rose by at 0.09%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell by 0.12%.
points sectors, textiles and clothing, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, beauty care, social services, etc. lead the rise, while real estate, non-ferrous metals, , automobiles, commerce and retail, coal, etc. lead the decline.
Risk warning:
stock market is risky, investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently.
