At the beginning of the new year of 2019, the aviation safety network (aviationsafetynetwork) released a brief report on the statistics of civil aircraft accidents last year as usual.
report stated that despite several eye-catching accidents, data shows that 2018 is still one of the safest years in the history of , which has been counted.
However, the accident rate in 2018 is indeed a bit worse than the average in the past 5 years.
1
Data
In 2018, the Aviation Safety Network counted 15 fatal aviation accidents, causing a total of 556 deaths in . This makes 2018 the third-small year of fatal accidents and the ninth mortality rate. The safest thing in the history of civil aviation was in 2017, with 10 accidents and 44 people killed.
It should be noted that the statistical rules for 15 fatal aviation accidents are commercial passenger flights of 14 seats or above, and commercial cargo flights. If the statistics of military transport aircraft accidents were included, a total of 25 fatal aviation accidents occurred in 2018, with a total death toll of 917 .
In these 15 accidents, passenger flights account for 80%. Of the 15 accident aircraft, three are operated by the EU's "blacklist" airline, an increase of two compared to 2017.
Although these numbers are a bit "shocking", among the about 37.8 million flights around the world, the incidence of fatal accidents in is only 1/2.52 million . Civil aviation transportation is still one of the safest modes of transportation in the world.
2
aircraft model
accident model, the number of branch and commuter aircraft with a 70-seat level and below is 10, and 7 are propeller-powered aircraft. Among them, the old World War II aircraft JU-52, which crashed on August 4 in the Alps in the eastern Swiss region, has a age of up to 80 years and has many legendary history.
JU-52 crashed in the Alps
The most serious accident, the most death toll and the most widespread impact was the one that occurred on October 29 in the Indonesia Lion Air 610 air crash, with the death toll reached 189. The reason why this accident has attracted widespread attention is that the number of deaths is largely due to the fact that the accident model is Boeing's latest 737MAX8, which has a plane age of only 2 months. According to the Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee, the aircraft instrument had already malfunctioned during the last four flights, one of which affected the operation of the angle of attack sensor and the airspeed indicator. The crashed flight experienced an error in the input reading of one of the angle of attack sensors, and this problem was not resolved in time. At the same time, Indonesia's Lion Air also has a very bad security record and was once blacklisted by the EU.
Lion Air 610 air crash
3
time
time
From the stage of accidents, the 15 accidents in 2018 are quite different from the " black 13 minutes " (take off for 5 minutes and landing for 8 minutes) that are often mentioned in the past. The 15 accidents in 2018 occurred in the cruise phase, with 2 each in the climb, descending and landing phases, and no accidents occurred during the takeoff phase.
It is undeniable that the take-off and landing stage is still the most dangerous stage in flight, because the above data is only a count of accidents in which people die, and there are still many serious accidents in which people die during the take-off and landing stage. In , China Airlines alone, there are accidents in which Xiamen Airlines MF8667 rushed out of the runway when Manila landing, and the first flight JD5759 Macau encountered serious accident symptoms in which wind shear reserve landing in Shenzhen.
Xia Airlines MF8667 rushed out of the runway when landing in Manila
First flight JD5759 Macau encountered wind shear
According to ANS statistics, since 2014, fatal aviation accidents have gradually changed from mostly occurring in the take-off and landing stage to occur in the cruise stage. It's hard to say what kind of trend this is. The reduction in accidents during take-off and landing shows that the rate of aviation accidents caused by human factors is declining, and computers are gradually becoming an important tool to ensure flight safety. The accident gradually shifts toward the cruise phase and decreases, but after an accident occurs during the cruise phase, the probability of personnel survival is extremely low.
4
cause
ASN said that in the past five years, one of the main reasons for aviation accidents was out of control. Because of the out of control, 15 of the 25 fatal accidents (including military transport aircraft) last year, and the survival rate was not high.
However, compared with the accident rate in 2000, in just 18 years, flights have become much safer today, with 64 fatal accidents in 2000. "If the accident rate is the same as 10 years ago, the number of fatal accidents in 2018 should be 39. This shows that we have made great progress in safety over the past 20 years."
