I thought that the growth momentum of September would continue in October this year, but the retail sales data in October were shocking.
According to the latest data released by the China Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of passenger cars in October 2022 reached 1.84 million vehicles, with increasing by 27.3% year-on-year, with a steady growth, but the retail volume of decreased month-on-month , down 4.3% compared with September. It is worth mentioning that this is the first time since 2013 that the sales volume has declined month-on-month.
The passenger car market sold a total of 16.716 million vehicles from January to October this year, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and had a net increase of 482,000 vehicles from compared with January to October this year. Among them, retail sales in June and October increased by 1.56 million units year-on-year, making a huge contribution to the increase. This is mainly because the latest halving policy for halving the car purchase tax in May this year: for passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters and below whose purchase date is from June 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022 and whose bicycle price (excluding value-added tax) does not exceed 300,000 yuan, the vehicle purchase tax will be levied at half.
01
Official brand performed well, accounting for half of the country
In just past October, the production data of the auto market performed well, showing super growth characteristics. From the perspective of model, production is centered on SUVs and sedans are the main force. In October, 1.116 million SUVs were produced, 1.063 million sedans were produced, and 97,000 MPVs were produced.
In October, the independent major enterprises increased their production, and BYD Auto , Geely Auto , Changan Auto , and Great Wall Motor all achieved a month-on-month growth of more than 8%. Specifically, in October, 2.277 million passenger cars were produced, an increase of 16.3% year-on-year and a decrease of 3.6% month-on-month. The industrial chain supply guarantee measures achieved significant results. Among them, the production of luxury brands increased by 28% year-on-year and decreased by 11% month-on-month; the production of joint venture brands increased by 1% year-on-year and decreased by 4% month-on-month; the production of independent brands increased by 26% year-on-year and decreased by 1% month-on-month. From January to October, the production of automakers reached 19.148 million vehicles, an increase of 17.9% year-on-year.
htmlManufacturers' wholesale sales in October were 2.191 million vehicles, an increase of 11.0% year-on-year and a decrease of 4.6% month-on-month. The wholesale sales of manufacturers from January to October reached 18.893 million vehicles, an increase of 14.0% year-on-year. Driven by the new energy market, some automakers have significantly differentiated their performance, and BYD firmly occupies a leading position. BYD Auto, Geely Automobile and Changan Automobile, which are leading sales by
, are also the top three in the incremental contribution in October last year. Geely Auto also issued an announcement today stating that it has entered into an framework agreement with Geely Holdings and Renault to establish an joint venture to integrate the advantages of all parties in transmission business and other aspects. Geely has a considerable development momentum. Data shows that in October this year, Geely's total sales were 152,300 vehicles, an increase of about 36% year-on-year, and increased by about 17% month-on-month; among which Zekr brand sales were 10,119 vehicles, an increase of 4985% year-on-year. In addition, the growth of Chery Automobile and Great Wall Motors is also strong. In terms of retail sales, in addition to BYD, GAC Toyota performed well, with retail sales increasing by 45.4% year-on-year. According to data, GAC Toyota's sales in October were 80,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%; the cumulative sales from January to October were 845,608 units, a year-on-year increase of 31.2%. GAC Toyota is a well-deserved dark horse car company in October. In terms of inventory, since the fourth quarter of 2021, manufacturers' inventory has quickly replenished , and the cumulative inventory of nearly 250,000 from January to October 2022, of which the inventory replenished from May to October. In terms of manufacturer inventory, since the purchase tax halving policy was implemented in June, the increase in manufacturers' inventory reserves has contributed significantly since May. In October, the inventory of manufacturers increased by 90,000 units month-on-month, and the cumulative increase of 250,000 units from January to October. However, from January to October 2021, the inventory of manufacturers decreased by 320,000 units, and this year the inventory of manufacturers improved significantly. In terms of channel inventory, channel inventory increased by 80,000 units in October, and increased by 320,000 units from January to October, a strong contrast from the decrease of 830,000 units from January to October 2021.
The world is seriously out of stock under the epidemic, and it is not easy for China's auto market inventory to return to medium and high levels, laying a stable situation for exports and domestic sales. Due to the guaranteed inventory, terminal retail in early October has significantly strengthened under the promotion of policies, and passenger car exports also hit a record high of 270,000 in October.
02
New energy market: double growth year-on-month, plug-in mixing performance is excellent
New energy market, the current situation of global chip supply shortage this year has greatly alleviated, and the expectation of rising oil prices has driven new energy vehicle market to perform very well. However, due to the impact of epidemic prevention measures in some areas, the store closure is more prominent, while new energy vehicle stores are mostly concentrated in places such as supermarkets where people gather. Therefore, the rules of prosperity and sales at the end of the year have been changed, forming a relatively dull "Golden September and Silver October".
htmlIn October, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars reached 676,000 units, an increase of 85.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. Under the policy of halving the car purchase tax, new energy vehicles were not only not affected, but continued to improve month-on-month exceeding expectations. From January to October, 5.015 million new energy passenger cars were wholesale, an increase of 110.8% year-on-year. In October, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 556,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 75.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.0%, forming a trend of upward trend from January to October. From January to October, 4.432 million new energy passenger cars were sold domestically, an increase of 107.5% year-on-year.
In the new energy vehicle market, PHEV has grown significantly, and if oil prices rise in the future, it will have a more advantage. Although plug-in hybrids have shown strong growth in a short period of time, pure electric is still the absolute mainstream model in the long run.
At present, new energy vehicle exports performed well, with the export volume of new energy vehicles in October reaching 103,000, which further enhanced the sales performance of the new energy vehicle market. It can be seen that more and more new energy brands are going abroad, and their recognition overseas has gradually increased. In addition, with the improvement of service network and infrastructure, new energy brands have great potential overseas.
htmlNew energy passenger car market hit a record high in October, and BYD pure electric and plug-in hybrid dual drivers consolidated the leading position of new energy in its own brand; traditional car companies represented by SEC, GAC, Dongfeng , Geely, Chery and Great Wall performed quite outstandingly in in new energy sector. In this comparison, the retail share of new power brands accounted for 11.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 percentage points, and new power brands still cannot relax.
However, the sales of new forces such as Nezha, Ideal, Zero Run, NIO , Xiaopeng , WM Motor are still strong overall in terms of year-on-year and month-on-month performance. Among them, the LePa car , which was launched shortly after 2022, delivered a total of 7,026 vehicles in October, and the total delivery reached 94,628 vehicles. It is worth mentioning that Hechuang, which has just started the new car major, performed steadily and slightly higher in October, with monthly delivery reaching 3,123 units, surpassing the same new forces, Skyworth and Lantu , leading the third echelon of the new forces.
Driven by electrification and intelligence, the charm of new products in the auto market is constantly improving. The price reduction of new energy vehicles represented by leading high-end new energy automakers in October will also bring new demand to the new energy vehicle market in November. This time the decline is large and the brand appeal is strong. After the price reduction, some automakers quickly followed up on auto insurance subsidies or increased terminal promotions, which will also help the sales of new energy vehicles in November to slightly increase. However, due to the withdrawal of subsidies, there is still a possibility of price increase for car companies, so there will be no wave of price reduction. In addition, as the current epidemic continues, the proportion of dealers closing stores is increasing, and there will still be great risks and uncertainties in the release of automobile consumption demand by the end of the year.
