Disclaimer: This article is intended to convey more market information and does not constitute any investment advice. The article only represents the author's views and does not represent the official position of MarsBit.
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Source: Jonas Zhao
Original title: Investment theory on the primary market of cryptocurrency in 2023
This topic will focus on the macro structure analysis of the main departments of the cryptocurrency market. The purpose is to abstract the core framework of each independent sector and free us from the chaotic concept of markets. Finally, we propose our core investment theory and track market trends.
In addition to King Ehtereum, L1/L2 can be divided into 4 categories according to the perspective of functions and operating language: Ethereum Killer, Ethereum Fork, Layer 0 and Layer 2.
Each of them came up with concrete solutions to the problems Ethereum has or has had: high GAS, low TPS, no sovereignty, etc. They have some exciting new improvements in their respective ecosystems.
L1 has shouldered two historical missions since its establishment: to continuously expand the scale to accept new users and to continuously improve them to meet the needs of advanced users. With the support of Moudulized blockchain and Ethereum killers, both have made great progress.
L1/L2 is still one of the investment areas with the largest electric vehicles . We are extremely optimistic about the development of modular and high-performance chains over the next 5-10 years. The basic structure of
DeFi is also becoming more and more complete. The future of DeFi will also be based on multi-chain expansion represented by vampire attacks to generate new users, as well as a subtle liquidity mining model to retain sticky users.
Here we can extract a simplified "cryptocurrency growth theory": MCs in the crypto world can be calculated by multiplying asset classes with leverage and then pushing inflation speed. The mystery of the rise and fall of the DeFi empire lies in these three parameters.
Our focus on DeFi projects has also shifted from innovation in token economics and business models to real customer demand and real revenue. Now, it's time to see who is swimming naked.
Over the past year, we have seen obvious polarization in the gaming industry. Now, game studios have to choose between playability and financialization. Currently, it is unlikely to see a game achieve both goals at the same time.
There is no doubt that the game plays an indispensable role in promoting the prosperity of L1. From the perspective of encrypted VC, we are looking forward to more local calls on the token model and business model. The core structure of
NFT is very similar to DeFi, both of which are transaction-related needs from core assets. Although asset types vary greatly, NFTs are highly concentrated on valuable PFPs, and the infrastructure of NFTs currently serves almost only them.
From the suggestions and evolution of the NFT standard, we can clearly capture a trend, and NFT is also developing in two directions: trading and practical. Judging from the proportion of EIP approval, financial NFTs are more popular among the community than practical NFTs.
We believe that the solutions on NFT liquidity in the market are too hasty. Before solving the supply shortage problem, anyone who says "NFT lacks liquidity" is just looking for nails with the hammer in his hand.
people hold different views on the definition of web3. From our perspective, all businesses that use composite data to provide services can be divided into this area, and these services were not mentioned before.
We have had enough of the copycat version of web2. The spirit of web3 is not to decentralize everything in web2, but to provide users with useful products while giving them the right to access data and jump between service providers at zero cost.
Finally, let’s discuss the Web3 Merrill Lynch Investment Clock from a more macro perspective. We can find some representative industries in the four quadrants , and there is also a hidden coordinate, which is also crucial to understanding the investment cycle of web3: culture.The formation of investment theory and the selection of investment goals are complementary. Similarly, the definition of the protocol and the conversion between the application can be traced, and the opportunity we are looking for is in the middle of this conversion.
@Cipholio is looking for:
. The protocol requires technical breakthroughs to meet the actual needs of vigorous applications; . The application with innovative business models specific to the protocol is on the general protocol.
