Taipei City election situation seems clear on the surface, although various polls generally place Jiang Wan'an first. However, some poll experts on the island pointed out that if Jiang Wanan can currently be elected as the mayor of Taipei 100%, there may be quite high variables.
Taiwan's "People's Investigation Culture and Education Foundation" Secretary-General Chen Shaofu submitted a letter to the "China Times" pointing out that although Zhou Yukou 's criticism of Jiang Wan'an and his family has aroused the sympathy of some blue camp elites, the people's support for Jiang Wan'an has never been obvious, and because of Jiang Wan'an's mediocre performance, he has extremely lack of enthusiasm.
article believes that Jiang Wan'an's poll has experienced the plagiarism of Lin Zhijian's paper, and then the controversy about blocking vaccines in Chen Shizhong has resurrected, including Zhou Yukou's criticism of the Jiang family. Jiang Wan'an's poll has basically not been significantly improved. In other words, although the elites of the Blue Camp have become more sympathetic to Jiang Wanan, the attitudes of the citizens have not changed much.
article pointed out that in this "nine-in-one" election, Taiwan's election situation from north to south is quite deserted. Although Taipei, Hsinchu and Taoyuan are slightly more topical, it is only relative and low turnout is difficult to avoid. Although Taiwan society has once again experienced an atmosphere of "hating the Democratic Progressive Party" to a certain extent, the Kuomintang does not have a charming politician like the last time Han Kuo-yu . The Blues' willingness to vote is usually lower than that of the Celtics. Although the social atmosphere of "hating the DPP" does exist, the atmosphere of thinking that the Kuomintang is incompetent and feeling distracted is equally strong.
article stated that from the Kuomintang's standpoint, it is believed that many Taipei citizens would concentrate votes on Jiang Wanan, who is the first poll before the election because they are afraid of Chen Shizhong's election. This is a reasonable inference, but it may not become a fact on the day of the vote. The actual turnout rate of DPP supporters is often higher than that of polls, and the social atmosphere of "hating DPP" will also make Chen Shizhong's supporters turn low-key or refuse to express their opinions when facing polls. But even if you are dissatisfied with Tsai Ing-wen or Chen Shizhong, the DPP and green camp supporters are likely to still vote for Chen Shizhong before the vote.
Although Yao Wenzhi set a very low number of votes four years ago, the atmosphere of the green camp hyping "anti-China and Taiwan" on the island and the general environmental factors of "confrontation between China and the United States" are also completely different from those four years ago. If Chen Shizhong would definitely rank third with a low number of votes, or it would be completely impossible to be elected, it is probably not true. It is not so much a fact that Deep Blue voters have returned to support Jiang Wan'an, but rather a fact, they hope that the operation of "abandoning Huang and protecting Jiang" can ferment. The article
also pointed out that the Kuomintang may also underestimate Huang Shanshan's vote rate. Huang Shanshan's supporters are generally relatively neutral and younger. Huang Shanshan's current support for polls in various companies is about 20%. Jiang Wanan's supporters are relatively old, so in the poll sampling, the proportion of Jiang Wanan's supporters should be much higher than Huang Shanshan, so it is not surprising that Jiang Wanan's poll is higher than Huang Shanshan. Huang Shanshan’s supporters may not receive the poll call.
article emphasizes that at present, Jiang Wanan and Huang Shanshan need to prove that they can better fight against the DPP and Chen Shizhong than their opponents. Otherwise, both sides will suffer losses, and even if Chen Shizhong is controversial, there is still a possibility that the fisherman will be elected if he benefits. (Source: Taiwan "China Times News Network")
