On February 24, 2022, conflict broke out between Russia and Ukraine, and it has been more than seven months since then. During the period, hundreds of thousands of troops of Russia and Ukraine repeatedly tug-of-war, the regional situation was turbulent and escalating, and the "largest armed conflict in the 21st century" was launched. At the same time, dozens of countries and international organizations such as the United States, EU , NATO , etc. have ended or been involved in it. The world's food and energy prices have made rapid progress, the world's political, economic and military structure has evolved profoundly, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has become an important event that affects the world situation.
At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still far away from the end, and its impact may further ferment. Today, Brother Youli will combine some of the latest important events to dig into the profound impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the world pattern.
, Crimea Bridge was bombed, the red phone restarted - will the world return to the Cold War ?
A few days ago, Russian warlords threatened to launch a nuclear strike against the British mainland , and they could also watch it as fun at that time.
Recently, with the bombing of the Russians' "Bridge of Confidence" - the Crimea Bridge, the Russian side began to change its originally mild diplomatic expression.
After all, Russia has just included four states in the form of a referendum. If Ukraine acts as usual and continues to extend the battlefield to Russia's control and attack Russia's critical infrastructure, then Russia will not face the issue of whether it can win the war, but the lives and order of its people will also be seriously affected, shaking the people's and the morale of the army.
So this time, Russia used nuclear deterrence, and correspondingly, NATO was not willing to be outdone. With the joint efforts of the two sides, the long-lost nuclear cloud once again enveloped Europe and even the Atlantic both sides.
Because of this, the United States and Russia also restarted the "red phone" during the Cold War. You should know that this emergency hotline was set up during the Cuban missile crisis in , with the purpose of avoiding an imminent nuclear war. For a time, the major news about Western world was filled with the smell of returning to the Cold War. In addition to shock, people couldn't help but ask: Is the current world so close to the Cold War?
Our answer to this question will probably destroy the only sense of security in people's hearts.
. If globalization is a piece of glass, then the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the first piece of fragment dropped on this piece of glass
Globalization is a world trend in recent decades. It can be said that the world after the Cold War was completely shaped by globalization. China's cheap industrial products marketing world, American Hollywood blockbusters are popular all over the world, German cars on the streets and alleys of China, young people all over the world humming English songs with the same tune... All of this is driven by the power of globalization.
However, people who are familiar with politics and history know that the Cold War and globalization are antonyms.
When frequent exchanges and communication can bring common benefits, the power of globalization takes the lead.
When major countries cannot share economic interests and start to compete for markets and raw materials, they will inevitably fall into a tense situation.
Over time, as the competition intensifies, the Iron Curtain will eventually fall. Countries join forces to form alliances to compete for limited resources and markets. At this time, competition becomes mainstream, and the logic and order of the Cold War will dominate the world.
Before the European electricity and energy prices surged, Nordic 2 pipeline was damaged, most people felt that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was only temporary.Many people are waiting for the end of the war, and believe that when the world is over between Russia and Ukraine, the world will return to its previous appearance. Although countries are making noises and troubles for their interests, cooperation is still the mainstream, and all parties will eventually sit down and solve the problem.
However, Europe, especially Germany, was really forced to "industrialize", pouring a basin of cold water on wishful thinking like this. Sensitive people began to look at breaking news with questionable eyes, worrying whether the situation was changing irreversiblely in a certain direction and whether the world was heading towards a future that it was not familiar with.
In fact, since the Sino-US trade war, the new political process in the world has pressed the fast forward key. It can be said that the Sino-US trade war is a turning point between the major global economies, from sharing the global market to mutual exclusion and competition.
If the trade war broke out between China and the United States is the first crack in the glass of "globalization", the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the first fragment dropped on this glass.
. The world order is facing an inevitable major change
Originally, the Anglo-Saxon Group, which was a pirate, joined forces with multinational capital groups. They use North America as their base and play the role of offshore balancer , and conduct traditional balance of power operations on the Eurasian continent through political and economic means, dominate the world order in this way and safeguard their own interests.
However, after 2016, this balance of power operation changed, from maintaining the status quo to taking the initiative, and the maritime hegemony changed from a Japanese soldiers to a pig's sudden advance. Therefore, we can see that since the Sino-US trade war, Eurasian continent has been subject to strategic squeeze from maritime power countries in both east and west directions.
On the Eastern Front, China has been under tremendous pressure in the fields of economy, trade and technology, especially the high-tech industries represented by chips, which have been subject to unreasonable sanctions from the United States. Not only that, Taiwan, as the core interest of country, has also experienced a crisis.
On the Western Front, Russia is also facing increasing strategic pressure, but the Russian side has made a different choice from China.
As soon as Russia is concerned, it is unable to meet challenges with its own economic strength, so it is fighting against the West in its more advantageous military field.
Secondly, the Russian side chose to take offense as the defense and use a preemptive approach to occupy the favorable situation. In an attempt to break the aggressive trend of Western society dominated by the United States against Russia since World War II , so the game on the Western Front has become more intense.
Russia-Ukraine War has gone to this day, and Russia has fought many rounds of competition with the EU and the United States behind Ukraine.
For Russia, it has fought a hot war with Ukraine, intelligence war with NATO, trade war, political war and financial war with the EU and the United States, and has also carried out the highest-level nuclear deterrence since the Cold War.
It can be said that the Russian-Ukrainian war is a collision between two plates. It is a bloody game between Russia as the first level of the multi-level world and world hegemony. Such collisions will inevitably lead to a deep tear of the original world order in various fields.
At this time, people finally understood the true meaning of the sentence "The current world order is undergoing profound changes."
. In the face of challenges, Russia took the lead and got it.
Russia's offensive was tide, but in fact it only lasted for a very short time. In recent months, Russia's momentum has been very different from when the war just started. First, from the early stage of multiple attacks, several armies advanced together, and changed to strategic defense. Immediately afterwards, it changed from strategic defense to shrinking the front line, and even strengthened the walls and cleared the fields. Recently, the lost territory was recovered by the Ukrainian army, and some front lines were pushed back to the Russian-Ukrainian border.
In this process, some domestic media have repeatedly changed their caliber, from shouting that the hairy bear is invincible, to lamenting that Moscow has a high eye for being a low player, and then to fancy complaining about Russia's weak national strength, which can be said to be repeated.
But the problem is that not only does Putin not suffer a Waterloo, Russia has also achieved the expansion of territory. As things have developed here, the media's interpretation has long been ineffective, and the development of the situation has long exceeded their interpretation ability. The profound changes in the world pattern are not as simple as ordinary people imagine.
. A deeper conflict is brewing between Russia and the West
Putin once said that in terms of military capabilities alone, Russia can fight quickly, but they did not choose this method. Why didn't you choose to win quickly? Because Russia and the EU have very strong economic complementarity, they are a region with different endowments and division of labor in a unified market.
Europe relies on Russia's energy and market, and Russia has a great demand for European industrial products, and its finance and culture also have a deep dependence on Europe. This is why France advocated Europe to accept Russia in the early days of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, while Germany secretly exchanged rubles and to buy Russian natural gas, and was happy to see the formation of "natural gas rubles".
However, Russia's efforts to differentiate European countries with economic interests have been thwarted by the United States with the interruption of trade between Russia and Europe. Western groups led by the United States would rather make European industries lose competitiveness than cut off close economic and trade exchanges between Russia and Europe. With such a cost-effective approach, the fall of Iron Curtain is just around the corner.
Winter is approaching, and Europe, whose energy is cut off, will make a choice? Not long ago, the Italian right-wing parties had successfully taken office through elections and once again took the forefront of Europe. In the foreseeable future, if life is difficult and under the pressure of multiple crises, its future trend seems to be destined.
And for Russia, close economic and trade and civil exchanges are one of the shackles that restrict its expansion of war. Because Russia's high-end consumer goods, cultural products and financial industries rely heavily on Western European in trade between Russia and Europe, its pro-European influence is very huge. As the West deepens its sanctions on it, the pro-European faction has been marginalized, and the shackles on the war beast polar bear have become increasingly loose.
6. A world full of variables is also full of opportunities
Old ancestors once taught us: The general trend of the world, long-term separation will lead to unity, and long-term harmony will lead to division. The deep meaning of this statement is that the general trend is irreversible. The world trend is like a huge pendulum, and order often swings from one extreme to another.
If, in the capital market, a helmsman can see the general trend clearly and control it fully, then he can be invincible in trading. Then, in the big game of geopolitics , if you can see the situation clearly and successfully lead the trend, you can lead the way without hesitation.
Looking back at history, more than 70 years ago, shortly after World War II ended, iron curtains fell among different countries and regions, the international situation underwent major changes, and the world pattern gradually became tense.
. China judged the situation, identified the main contradictions, divided the world into three different worlds, firmly supported the third world countries' struggle against hegemony, and supported the second world countries' struggle against superpower interference and control, and pushed itself to the center of the world's political stage by leveraging the clever means of fighting against force.
Since then, the order of the Cold War has become increasingly stronger. This ancient and new power followed the trend and upgraded from a piece in the hands of the great powers to the world's main chess player.
By the 1970s and 1980s, after more than 30 years of development, the Cold War order developed to its peak. Everything will turn back when extremes, and the pendulum of the world order begins to move in another direction. Multipolarization has become the mainstream, and exchanges and cooperation among countries have become unstoppable.
China once again grasped the pulse of the times, broke the barriers between originally hostile countries, turned swords into jade, led the situation with its own strength, and promoted the development of history.
In the decades since then, the connection between different economies has become increasingly close, the boundaries between countries have been erased vigorously, and unified markets have developed rapidly, and ideas like "The World Is Flat" have become mainstream.
Now, after nearly forty years of development, things are stronger and old, and the direction of the general trend has been revealed. The pendulum of the world order will once again swing toward another side with irresistible force. A century-old change like
is a challenge and an opportunity for the country and the nation.
What will happen in the future? I believe that every descendant of Yan and Huang is full of expectations.
Image from the Internet
