Reporter | Dai Jingjing
Due to factors such as diesel and other refined oil exports, China's refined oil exports hit a 15-month high in September.
htmlOn October 24, data released by the General Administration of Customs of China showed that China's refined oil exports in September this year were 5.64 million tons, an increase of nearly 18% month-on-month and 36% year-on-year, setting a new monthly export high since June 2021.Among them, diesel exports were 1.73 million tons, a significant increase of 109% month-on-month and 123% year-on-year; aviation kerosene exports were 1.23 million tons, a 58% month-on-month and 38.6% year-on-year; gasoline exports were 660,000 tons, a decrease of 41% and 28% month-on-month and year-on-year respectively.
refined oil is a product produced by crude oil through refining and processing, mainly including gasoline, diesel, kerosene, lubricating oil and petroleum asphalt.
This year, China's diesel exports to Europe increased significantly.
According to customs data, from January to September this year, China's exports mainly flowed to Singapore (20%), Philippines (18%), Hong Kong (13%), Bangladesh (9%), Netherlands (8%), Australia (7%), Belgium (3%), Panama (3%), South Africa (2%) and Myanmar (2%).
During the same period last year, China's top ten diesel imports did not have European countries, with the top five being the Philippines (25%), Singapore (14%), Australia (14%), Bangladesh (12%) and Hong Kong (10%).
From January to September this year, China's diesel exports to Belgium and the Netherlands increased by nearly 180 times and 3.4 times year-on-year respectively.
htmlOn October 26, Niu Heyun, senior analyst of Argus refined oil, pointed out in the webinar of "Changes and Changeable Domestic and International Situation" held by the agency that the Netherlands and Belgium are important oil transfer stations in the European region. Customs data shows that from January to September, China's total diesel exports to Europe were about 550,000 tons, compared with about 140,000 tons in the same period last year.After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict this year, Europe has reduced Russian fuel imports, and overall demand has rebounded, resulting in a shortage of refined oil in Europe.
"Europe is heavily dependent on imported diesel, reduced pressure diesel and naphtha from Russia." Niu Heyun said that before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, about a quarter of Europe's fuel supply came from Russia.
In its research report released on October 26, CICC analyzed that under the sanctions policy of Europe and the United States on Russia, Russian oil and oil exports have been affected to a certain extent. As of September this year, Russia's refined oil exports decreased by 485,000 barrels per day, mainly reducing exports to EU and the United Kingdom, among which the exports of diesel and gasoline fell the most significantly.
"Diesel price has been at a high level, and diesel cracking profit has also been at a high level since March." Niu Heyun said.
Judging from the relaxation of China's export quota, China's diesel export volume is expected to continue to increase in October.
html At the end of September, the Ministry of Commerce issued a quota of 13.25 million tons of refined oil exports, the highest quota issued this year. Since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Commerce has issued five batches of refined oil export quotas, with a total of 37.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. htmlOn October 17, Shengang Securities released a research report stating that the export quota for refined oil was issued exceeding expectations, and refined oil exports are expected to usher in a significant rebound in the fourth quarter. html In October, due to the strike of France's Total Energy and ExxonMobil refinery, more than half of France's refinery production capacity shock, and refined oil inventory continued to decline, and the country had to import diesel at high prices.According to Reuters , data from oil analysis company Vortexa showed that from October 1 to October 10, France's October diesel imports increased by more than 70% from September, and 37% from the same period last year, the highest level since the company began tracking data in 2016.
Reuters analyzed that diesel refining profit margins in Europe and the United States reached record highs as strikes at French refineries exacerbated global distillate fuel shortages.
Niu Heyun also mentioned that on October 17, the diesel cracking profit of American Bay and Europe reached about US$80 per barrel, or about RMB 4,000 per ton, the highest point of the year.
