According to foreign media reports on the 24th, the latest data from the National Family Health Survey in India shows that India's total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 2.0, lower than the generational replacement level for the first time (2.1). If its fertility rate remains below 2.1, India's population will peak between 1.6 billion and 1.8 billion around 2060 and begins to decline.
India's population growth has been declining Image source: United Nations Population Division
In demographic , the total fertility rate (i.e., the average number of children per woman of childbearing age, referred to as "TFR") remains at 2.1, which is called the generational replacement level, that is, a couple gives birth to 2 children on average to achieve their own substitution. If the fertility rate remains at a replacement fertility level of 2.1 for a long time, the total population changes will enter a static state, and will not increase or decrease, and the population structure will stabilize. If the replacement level is below 2.1, it means that the overall population will decline.
Overall population growth in India has been declining, with TFR in India lowering from 2.7 to the first time it was lower than the generational replacement level. Regionally, the TFR of rural India is 2.1, while urban areas are only 1.6. Currently, there are only three states - Bihar , Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand, with TFR above the replacement level. Judging from the growth trend of fertility rates, fertility rates in Indian states are generally lower.
Data map
Executive Director of the Indian Population Fund, Punan Mutreha, said that India's TFR reached 6 or higher around 1950 and has now dropped to 2, but India's overall population size will not shrink immediately. "Because India's population aged 10 to 24 years old accounts for about 30.9%, this young group is in the fertility stage or is about to enter the fertility stage. For a long time, the total population of India will continue to increase."
reported that the increase in fertility awareness, urbanization, rising contraception penetration rate, and government fertility plans are all reasons for the decline in fertility rates. "India has long been committed to population control. India is the first country to launch a national-level family planning program, and the encouraging result we are seeing now is the result of the joint efforts of the central and state governments of India," said an Indian government official.
U.S. Institute of Health Indexes and Assessment (IHME) research shows that the improvement in education level and rising contraceptive penetration rate in Indian women are the main reasons for the decline in fertility rates. It is reported that not only India, but nearly half of the world's countries are showing a significant decline in fertility rates. The US TFR in 2020 fell to about 1.6, setting a record low in the United States; Japan's fertility rate fell to 1.34 in 2020; and South Korea's low fertility rate below 1 put it in an increasingly serious population crisis. According to the forecast data of United Nations , global fertility rates will drop below replacement levels by 2070.
Red Star News Reporter Wang Yalin Intern Reporter Ding Wen
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