China News Service, June 27, According to Taiwan's United Daily News, with the "Tiger Year effect", Taiwan's education authorities estimate that the number of high school students in Taiwan in the 2026 academic year will drop to the first wave of the bottom. If parents and candidates still give priority to studying in public schools, the Taiwan Private School Trade Union predicts that at least one-third of private high schools will leave within five years, and about 1,760 private high school teachers will be unemployed; and when this group of students enters college in three years, it will also lead to another tsunami. If calculated based on the current student-teacher ratio of 21.88, more than 6,000 teachers will be unemployed in eight years, and about 40 private colleges and universities will leave.
Education authorities estimate that the number of high school students in the 2026 academic year will drop to the first wave bottom. Image source: Taiwan's United Daily News
According to reports, Taiwan's education authorities recently released a forecast report on the number of students in various education stages in Taiwan in the 2022-2037 academic year. Affected by the aging of children, the average annual decrease of primary school students is the largest, and the 2029 academic year may fall below one million. In the high school and college stages, high schools are expected to drop to 552,000 in the 2026 academic year, and only 463,000 in the 2037 academic year.
reported that due to the diversified admission pipeline and the promotion of backflow education in Taiwan, the number of freshmen who are not fresh graduates and overseas has also increased. The number of freshmen students will surpass the number of high school students from the 2022 academic year, but due to the influence of the 2025 academic year, the number of freshmen students will fall below 200,000 from the 2025 academic year, and the number of freshmen in the 2037 academic year is predicted to be 177,000. In the next 16 academic years, the average annual decrease of 2,900 in the first year of freshmen will be.
You Ronghui, chairman of the Taiwan Private School Trade Union, said that the number of public high schools in Taiwan is about 368,000. If parents and candidates still give priority to studying in public schools, in 2026, 211 private high schools will only recruit 184,000 people, a decrease of 36,000 from 220,000 in 2021. It is estimated that private high schools in 2026 will decrease by about 800 classes compared to the current level. At least one-third of private high schools will leave within five years, and about 1,760 private high schools will be unemployed.
It is reported that Taiwan’s “Tiger Year Effect” will be delayed for three years to impact colleges and colleges in 2029. You Ronghui said that if the market is still “public first and then private”, there will be only 595,000 students in private colleges and colleges in 2029, a decrease of 137,000 from 732,000 in 2021. If calculated based on the current student-teacher ratio, more than 6,000 teachers will be unemployed in eight years, and about 40 private colleges and colleges will be withdrawn.
