On November 26, 2022, Taiwan’s island is about to receive re-election of county mayors and county councillors. The Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party are ready to fight, and the fierce battles have already begun. From the current perspective, the Kuomintang has a greater chance of winning in this election. According to the observation and prediction of Japanese expert Kogasawara, the Kuomintang will win 15 seats for county and city mayors this year, with only five seats left in the DPP, and the Taiwan People's Party will also win one seat, and another seat belongs to an independent candidate. It seems that the Kuomintang has won, but the Democratic Progressive Party has a hidden trump card, which is the seemingly neutral Taiwan election department and its supervisor Li Jinyong. In Taiwan's history, it has been no longer news to interfere with elections by manipulating votes. Li Jinyong is a former DPP member. Since he took office, the Kuomintang has not won a single election, and he has actually started his initial operation. I will tell you what the specific situation is.
Li Jinyong
Election fraud cases in Taiwan's history
Since the implementation of the electoral system on the island of Taiwan, various situations of favoritism and fraud have also begun to occur. Chiang Kai-shek The father and son initially used the Kuomintang's huge administrative resources to carry out dimensional reduction strikes. The candidates he launched need money, power, and people, and their strength is far stronger than those of the people. Therefore, only the Kuomintang members can firmly control major key units, which is difficult for outsiders to get involved. This is just a formal election, because the results have been determined long ago. By the 1970s, the public's disgust towards the Kuomintang became stronger and stronger. The Jiang family's father and son could no longer suppress the surging public opinion, so they began to use votes to interfere in the election. In the Taoyuan County Mayor's election in 1977, because Xu Xinliang, the candidate for county magistrate who ran away from the Kuomintang, was full of morale, Fan Jiangxinlin, the principal of Zhongli Primary School of Taoyuan County, committed vote fraud during the election process and wanted to pull Xu Xinliang down. She covered her little finger with ink and deliberately pressed on the ballots voted for Xu Xinliang, thus invalidating the ballots. This directly angered Xu Xinliang's supporters, and the situation was once uncontrollable.
Xu Xinliang
When Lee Teng-hui was in power, in order to crack down on political enemies and expand his power, he began to absorb the turbulent forces in the martial arts world into the political arena, and the election became darker and darker. In 1992, the second election of public opinion representatives of the legislative body was held on the island of Taiwan. Among the candidates in Hualien County is Wei Mucun, who was born in the local funeral industry. He was the mayor of Hualien, a member of the Kuomintang at that time. Taiwan’s administrative division is different from the mainland. Hualien County is larger than Hualien City and has a higher level. , and the DPP was the then chairman of the DPP, Huang Xinjie, who took charge of the Eastern Expedition, and personally went to the fortress. The election battle between can be said to be full of sparks and is very fierce. Huang Xinjie was born in Taipei City in 1928. He was a Taiwanese top student who was admitted to Peking University in 1948. His original name is Golden Dragon . Because he worships Japanese Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi , he changed his name to Huang Nobusuke. He joined the Kuomintang in 1949, was arrested in 1979 for opposing the Kuomintang and served many years in prison. In 1988, Huang Xinjie joined the DPP and was elected as the chairman of the DPP after he was released from prison. In 1992, because the election situation in Hualien was tight, he personally took the fight.
Huang Xinjie
On December 29, 1992, Hualien Mayor Wei Mucun and his younger brother Hualien County Councilor Wei Donghe bribed more than a dozen staff members responsible for the billing of the polling station and the cleaning staff on the scene. They had discussed cheating methods at several meetings in advance, and finally decided to take action at noon on the voting day when the number of people voting was small. The selected target is the 12 ballot boxes located in Hualien City. They secretly cast the votes that had been prepared to support Wei Mucun into the ballot box. As the current mayor, Wei Mucun can easily get blank votes and forged stamps. , and according to the voting process at that time, the specific number of people on the voting list will not be counted and checked when the vote is performed after the voting is over. Such a plan can ensure that Wei Mucun wins the election. At the same time, Wei Donghe also used the Wei family's strong connections and economic resources in the local area to bribe a large number of people, hoping to increase their chances of winning by bribery. The Wei family operates a huge funeral industry in Hualien, with strong financial resources and sufficient strength to support it.
Wei Mucun’s family
Following this two-pronged planning idea, Wei Mucun’s election as a representative of the public opinion of the legislative body should be sure to win. But his competitor is DPP Chairman Huang Xinjie, and the DPP naturally puts all its efforts into keeping a close eye on this election. On the day of the voting for elections, Huang Xinjie lost to Wei Mucun with a slight gap of 62 votes. However, during the subsequent poll check by the DPP, it was found that the number of votes in the ballot box was actually more than the number of votes received, which immediately opened the dark side of the election fraud. After careful inspection, , there were 736 more votes. These votes that appeared out of thin air made the Wei family undisputed. The electoral agency and the police department immediately dispatched, and the Wei Mucun brothers, as well as the Hualien Civil Affairs Section Chief Huang and the Military Service Section Chief Kege were both arrested on January 11, 1993. Wei Mucun and Wei Donghe were sentenced to one year and two years and ten months in prison respectively. After being released from prison, Wei Mucun turned to join the DPP and became Chen Shui-bian's confidant in the Hualien area. The Wei Mucun case also became the most serious election fraud in Taiwan's history. Although the official cracked down on similar incidents later, it was still repeated.
Taiwan election
1999, Zhan Bixia, a grassroots cadre of the Kuomintang, published a memoir called "Confessions on Buying Tickets". tells the details of the election fraud cases he personally participated in over the years, and even the process of making votes and the ways to buy votes were revealed one by one, which also made the people extremely disappointed with the Kuomintang. After the Democratic Progressive Party took over the Kuomintang and took over the power of Taiwan, it can be said that it has followed suit and is even more "out of the youth" in the field of elections. They began to seek legitimate ways to increase their votes, such as college students generally support the DPP. The DPP authorities used their power to deliberately increase the number of trains transporting students home, and even increased the discount on student tickets to encourage students to return to their hometowns to vote. This is also an experience learned from the Kuomintang. In the 1977 Taiwan local county and city mayor election, the top leaders of the Kuomintang even used their influence in the army to operate votes. The election situation in Tainan City, Kaohsiung County, Nantou County and Taoyuan County was tight in that year. According to the recollection of Lin Ruiming, a Taiwanese historian who served in Chenggongling at the time, soldiers with household registration in these four counties and cities were taken away by the brigade department for conversation, and then went home to vote.
Tsai Ing-wen's election ace
2018 Kuomintang Han Kuo-yu emerged. He not only conquered Kaohsiung City, which the DPP had controlled for many years, but also allowed the Kuomintang to achieve a very brilliant victory on the island. Tsai Ing-wen was even forced to hand over the throne of the DPP chairman and avoid the edge. After Tsai Ing-wen saw Han Kuo-yu's momentum, she began to have bad ideas. The election agency on the island is the core agency in charge of elections. It has been a politically neutral department for a long time. The supervisors are basically held by respected talents on the island. However, in order to ensure victory, Tsai Ing-wen forcibly appointed Democratic Progressive Party's disciple Li Jinyong as the head of the election agency. In order to avoid suspicion, Li Jinyong pretended to quit the Democratic Progressive Party. Li Jinyong was once a core member of the DPP and served as mayor of Keelung and representative of public opinion of the legislative body. From 2014 to 2018, Li Jinyong also served as the mayor of Yunlin County. He and the DPP have long been a community of shared destiny connected by blood, and it is impossible for him to remain neutral in election work. is strange. Since Li Jinyong took office on April 24, 2019, the Kuomintang has never won a single election.
Li Jinyong can be regarded as the nemesis of the Kuomintang
Since Li Jinyong took office, the Kuomintang can be said to have suffered repeated defeats. On January 11, 2020, the Kuomintang Han Kuo-yu suffered a crushing defeat to Tsai Ing-wen in the election of leaders in Taiwan, kicking off a series of crushing defeats. On June 6, 2020, Han Kuo-yu was removed by voting by a citizen of Kaohsiung .In the Kaohsiung Mayor’s by-election on August 15, 2020, the Kuomintang’s Li Meizhen was defeated by Chen Chimai of the Democratic Progressive Party. On February 6, 2021, the Kuomintang’s action to remove Kaohsiung City Councilman Huang Jie failed. On January 9, 2022, Taichung City's public opinion representatives were defeated by-election, and the Kuomintang's Yan Kuanheng was defeated by Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lin Jingyi. On the same day, the Kuomintang-driven action to remove Lin Chang-cho, the public opinion representative of the legislative body, failed. The most painful battle in was that on December 18, 2021, the "Four Major Referendums" initiated by the Kuomintang were wiped out. For three years, the Kuomintang has only successfully removed Chen Baiwei, a representative of the Taiwan Gaming Party’s public opinion, and Wang Haoyu, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party, who has long been disgusted by gods and ghosts. Everyone has called for a fight. Generally speaking, Li Jinyong seems to be the nemesis of the Kuomintang. As soon as the Kuomintang encounters him, it will immediately become a defeat.
Kuo Yu defeated
22 local county and city mayor election, and the Kuomintang looks like it is full of momentum. However, Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP still holds the trump card of Li Jinyong in her hand, and it is hard to guarantee that there will be no Jedi turnaround. Moreover, Li Jinyong has started to take action recently. The election agency under his command issued a statement saying that people who were required to be quarantined at home due to the new crown epidemic cannot participate in the voting. The Kuomintang was very dissatisfied with this and claimed that Li Jinyong wanted to deprive the people of the sacred votes. actually has more tricky intentions and more secretive methods. According to statistics from Taiwan's election department, this request recently put forward by Li Jinyong will affect the election process of about 300,000 people, which means that there will be a large number of blank votes. Electors are eligible to vote, but cannot vote due to health reasons. I think the purpose of the DPP is to disrupt the real flow of votes, so that no one knows how many votes have been issued, how many people have actually participated in the election, and who has sent the votes to. Taiwan’s vote statistics method is still very primitive, which is also an important reason why it is easy to cause shady situations.
Wang Bisheng
Home quarantine's real list is controlled by Wang Bisheng, commander of the epidemic prevention command center, and the election agency that issues the votes is in the hands of former DPP MP Li Jinyong. combined together can completely turn the issuance of votes into a "confused account". At that time, they can manipulate the election in the name of "epidemic prevention" and make the real votes sink into the sea. This year's local county and mayor election has a characteristic, that is, the poll data between many candidates is very tightly bite, with a difference of only 1-3 percentage points, which can be said to be difficult to solve. The election situation is so anxious that it can also provide the DPP with a space for behind-the-scenes operation, and the traces will not be very obvious. In the 2004 Taiwan leadership election, there were only a few thousand votes between and and Chen Shui-bian, and on average, no more than two votes per polling station. After investigation by the Kuomintang, more than 4,800 people in Kaohsiung County alone have doubts to be investigated. The situation of impersonating votes, receiving more votes than votes, and the remaining votes are unknown. Tainan City even records of people who have passed away receiving votes.
Historical lessons must be learned from
It can be seen that although the Kuomintang has locked in the victory in the macro scope, in some places where public opinion support does not have an absolute advantage, there is still the possibility of being turned around by the DPP at any time. Japanese expert Quinyu Ogasawara once accurately predicted the result of Tsai Ing-wen's victory in 2020, and also estimated that her vote rate would reach 57.7%. In the end, Tsai Ing-wen's actual vote rate was 57.1%, which was only 0.6 percentage points away from the prediction conclusion. This time, Ogasawara is glad to predict that the Kuomintang will win 15 counties and cities, the Democratic Progressive Party will win 5 counties and cities, the Taiwan People's Party candidate Gao Hongan will win Hsinchu City, and the non-party candidate Zhong Dongjin will win Miaoli County . The Chinese Democratic Party will obtain New Taipei City , Hsinchu County , Taichung City, Changhua County , Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi City, Yilan County , Hualien County, Taitung County , Kinmen County , Lianjiang County .The Democratic Progressive Party will get Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Pingtung County, Chiayi County, and Penghu County . This result is obviously the best result of the Kuomintang, but it must have eliminated all external forces' interference factors. As for whether his prediction will come true in the end, we will wait and see.
