Not long ago, the Russian army withdrew from Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkov, and the Ukrainian army regained control of the city and restored its border with Russia. As a result, many people believe that Ukraine's counterattack has begun and the situation of the entire conflict has reversed. However, German media quoted some Western military experts as saying that Ukraine is in a much worse situation than people think.
On the one hand, Russia's special military operations are indeed very different from the intended goals and progress. For example, at the beginning of the operation, the efforts to occupy Kiev failed, and the plan to occupy the entire eastern Ukraine in a short period of time was also unsuccessful. The Russian army's offensive in Donbas area progressed slowly.
However, this does not mean that Ukraine will win this battle.
First of all, this conflict is longer than people imagined, and both sides are likely to fall into a lasting war of attrition. The war of attrition is about heavy weapons, which is exactly what Ukraine lacks. The impact of weapons aided by Western countries on conflict has been very obvious. Weapons such as anti-tank, air defense and anti-ship missile and air defense system were transported from the UK to Kiev; Slovak provides strategic S-300 air defense system; the United States provides drone , howitzer , missile and anti-tank systems. Without these supplies, the Russian army might have stood further away in the northwest cities, even Kiev.
European military experts believe that in the medium term, if the West cannot deliver weapons, especially heavy weapons, it will be difficult for Ukraine to achieve military success.
On the other hand, Russia is also increasing its crackdown on Western aid. On May 17, the Russian army used "caliber" sea-based long-range high-precision missiles to strike the Ukrainian reserve team located in Lviv Prefecture, Ukraine, destroying a batch of US-European weapons and military equipment planned to be transported to the Donbass region.
It can be predicted that it may become increasingly difficult for Ukraine to transport weapons from the West to where they are needed. Russian armed forces are systematically destroying railway infrastructure. Odessa example shows that Ukraine's logistical neuralgia points have been targeted.
Secondly, whether Ukraine can eventually bring enough heavy weapons to the frontline will also determine whether the country can be economically self-reliant. At present, Ukraine suffered huge territorial losses in the southeast, which are extremely important to Ukraine's economy - from wheat to oil production to ports. This is a huge blow to the country's economy.
Although Ukraine's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 7% before the war, it has plummeted 45-50% since the beginning of the war. In addition, due to the Russian Navy blockade, the country can no longer export goods through Black Sea . This cost the Ukrainian economy $170 million a day. Over the past period of time, the Ukrainian military has tried to recapture the Snake Island in the Black Sea at least twice, and even suffered huge losses for this, one of the important reasons is the recovery of exports. Obviously, it is very difficult for Ukraine to do this.
Territorially, the Russian army controls Khlsong and Mariupol , as well as the region between the two. On May 17, the surrender of the last batch of more than 200 Ukrainian troops who stood by the Mariupol Steel Plant marked the Russian occupation of this key city. Compared with the pre-war period, in Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast , the border has shifted inland. For example, pre-war estimates of Luhansk 60% of the land is in the hands of Ukraine, but Russia now owns 80%.
In general, how great is Russia's mobilization potential, to what extent is the EU ready to implement an energy embargo, and how many weapons the West can ship to Ukraine as soon as possible, all these unanswered questions will have an impact on the outcome of the war. #Media People Weekly# #No. 1 Weekly#
