(Text/Gong Ruohan) "The third in the United States, the new crown , is coming, but it is not ready yet" - this is the theme of an article on the American Times website recently. In the article, two scholars from the University of San Francisco and Drake University warned that in the coming months, another surge in coronavirus infections and deaths can be predicted as temperatures drop, social activities shifting indoors and holiday travel begins, and new variants that increasingly evade epidemics emerge.
At the same time, due to the low vaccination rate, the reduction in related grants, the decline in virus testing volume, and health agencies stop providing N95 masks to the public for free, the United States has not been fully prepared for a new wave of the epidemic. The article reads: "Without new grants to secure these basic necessities, the United States may face another very dark winter of epidemics." Scientists, including the top US infectious disease expert, Anthony Fauci , generally expect a new wave of cases in the United States to start surge in autumn and winter in October and peak in January next year.
The epidemic indicators in many countries have risen
In addition to the United States, many countries in the world are also facing high risk of a rebound in the epidemic this winter, and some are already in a new wave of the epidemic. In Europe, as the weather turns colder, the comeback of the new crown epidemic is brewing. The European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention reported that the number of new infections in 15 countries in the region has increased today, with the highest new infection rates in Austria , Belgium , France, Germany, Latvia and Liechtenstein .
A woman received the new crown vaccine at a pharmacy in Paris, France ( AFP )
In Germany, statistics in mid-October showed that Germany had 732 new confirmed cases per 100,000 people in 7 days, and the actual infection number is likely to be higher, because many people no longer undergo nucleic acid testing . The German Hospital Association said that German hospitals have been forced into a desperate situation, and a large number of infections have made it difficult for the hospital to maintain normal operation. The German Ministry of Health called on states to strengthen current regulations, including re-mandating the wear of FFP2 masks on long-distance trains, hospitals and clinics.
France has ushered in the eighth wave of the new crown epidemic, with more than 50,000 new confirmed cases every day, and the number of infections among young people has soared. Health officials are considering requiring people to wear masks in public places.
In Japan, the number of new confirmed cases every 7 days has increased after two months. Experts believe that as the end of the year approaches, personnel movement has become frequent, and with the relaxation of entry and exit policies, overseas viruses are very likely to enter Japan, and the possibility of an eighth wave of the epidemic is very high. Therefore, we call for strengthening the vaccination of new crown and influenza vaccination, reconstruction of testing and medical systems.
New cases in South Korea also showed signs of an increase. The epidemic prevention authorities said on the 17th that South Korea may experience another large-scale epidemic in early December.
People line up on the streets of Seoul, South Korea for COVID-19 testing (European News Pictures)
In view of the epidemic situation around the world, WHO announced on the 219th that the COVID-19 epidemic is still a public health emergency of international concern, which is the highest form of warning the organization can issue. The WHO said that the COVID-19 vaccine and treatment mean that the world has stronger ability to respond to the pandemic, with significantly fewer severe cases, but the number of confirmed cases has risen again and the pandemic has not yet ended. So far, 620 million confirmed cases and 6.5 million deaths in the new crown have been reported worldwide, and the actual number is likely to be much higher.
mutant strains "competitively"
The mutation of the new coronavirus continues, and the new variant of Omickron has begun to rage in many places around the world and is believed to have stronger immune escape capabilities. According to data from the WHO, the Omickron variant is related to almost all virus samples that have been sequenced, and there are currently more than 300 sub-variants of this variant.
Van Kerkhoff, head of the WHO's new coronavirus technology, said that all sub-variants of Omickron showed enhanced hereditary and immune escape characteristics, and some combinations also showed obvious immune escape."This is worrying because we need to ensure that the vaccines used around the world can still effectively prevent severe illness and death." The continuous emergence of new variants in
may cause the epidemic to expand again, and many countries have compressed the scale of testing, making it difficult to grasp the trend of changes in the epidemic. The US "" report said that this fall and winter, the Omickron "mutation group" may dominate the new crown epidemic, which means that multiple Omickron mutant strains will appear at the same time around the world, "expanding and competing" with each other.
Currently, the dominant variants in the United States are Omickron BA.5, Omickron BA.4.6, and the branches of BA.5 BQ.1 and BQ.1.1. Focc believes that BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have dangerous "attributes or characteristics that may evade some interventions" and may worsen the epidemic. Among them, BQ.1.1 has begun to spread in many countries. Some experts predict that it is likely to become the mainstream strain in the new wave of the epidemic.
An American woman suffering from long-term COVID-19 symptoms took therapeutic drugs at her home in , Massachusetts ( Reuters )
In South Korea, the proportion of infection cases of BA.5 variants gradually decreased, and the proportion of Omickron BF.7 variants that are prevalent in Europe is increasing, and BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have also been detected.
Among these variants, another variant that needs to be wary of is XBB, which is a new variant formed by a mixture of two Omickron variants genetic factor sequences. The WHO said on the 19th that XBB has been discovered in 26 countries - probably the new coronavirus variant with the strongest immune evasion ability to date. Data from the "Global Initiative for Influenza Data Sharing" which tracks changes in the new coronavirus and influenza virus shows that Singapore has the highest concentration of XBB or derivative variants in the past 30 days, followed by India, Bangladesh , the United States, Australia and Denmark.
Currently XBB is competing with Omickron BQ.1.1 for the title of the strongest variant that has been able to escape the epidemic so far. WHO said that while XBB appears to be more effective than other Omickron variants, it is not clear whether it will cause more severe disease than other variants.
Van Kerkhoff stressed that given the widespread spread of the new Omickron variant, countries need to strengthen monitoring in order to cope with the increase in cases, and perhaps the number of hospitalizations, "we need to stay alert." Health officials said everything available — including vaccination — should be used to protect people, especially the most vulnerable.
Source: Reference Message Network
