Russia's Crimea Bridge was bombed, and this incident had a great impact. Therefore, Russia carried out large-scale retaliation against Ukraine and carried out large-scale bombings for many consecutive days. According to media reports, starting from October 10 to October 12, just three consecutive days of bombing destroyed more than 200 Ukraine's infrastructure, including 28 energy facilities, destroying these energy facilities, causing damage to one-third of Ukraine's energy facilities, interrupting power supply, and the whole country was dark. Although President Putin later said that the Russian military's action to combat Ukraine's military targets was a response to the Crimean Bridge bombing, "Russia does not want to destroy the entire Ukraine, and there is no need to carry out further large-scale strikes on Ukraine at present." But in fact, Russia's bombing of Ukraine has been underway.
interprets it in a more comprehensive and profound sense. President Putin's words can also be understood in another way, that is, Russia has the ability to destroy the entire Ukraine. There is no need to carry out further large-scale attacks at present, but whether it is necessary in the future, it is necessary to ride a donkey and read the songbook and say wherever you go. Judging from the achievements of the above-mentioned large-scale bombing, Putin's words were not alarmist and terrifying.
In fact, until the war has fought, Ukraine's economic and social facilities have been damaged unprecedentedly severely. Although Ukraine is trying hard to deal with this and has caused some trouble to Russia, in comparison, Ukraine's losses are even greater, and the exchange ratio between the two sides is completely unequal. Compared with size and scale, Ukraine is much different, and this kind of war loss exchange not only makes people wonder, how long can Ukraine last if it continues to develop in this situation? This is true in terms of material resources, and even more so in terms of human resources. Some people estimate that before the war, Ukraine's population was about 40 million, and Crimea and the eastern Ukraine region that entered Russia were about 10 million. Nearly 10 million became refugees due to the war. In this way, Ukraine's remaining population was only more than 20 million. With the remaining population supporting large-scale long-term wars, how bright is Ukraine's prospects still have?
Because of this, some people exaggerately say that Ukraine is no longer a problem of defending its country, but is facing the crisis of national destruction. If the war continues to develop, this crisis will become more and more serious.
The author thinks that this is true, and Ukraine is indeed at risk of its destruction. But according to the current situation, Ukraine has no choice but to grit the bullet and continue to fight, because NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg has publicly stated that Russia's victory in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be NATO's failure, and NATO will not allow such a thing to happen. Since Russia is not allowed to win, weapons and equipment from NATO countries will be destined to be continuously transported to Ukraine on a larger scale at a higher level in the future. Western groups will use all kinds of means to stimulate and support the authorities to continue the war.
This means that Russia and Ukraine will not stop until they are exhausted.
For Ukraine, there is basically no problem with the military equipment required on the battlefield, and the food and fodder required on the front line should be basically guaranteed. Western groups can support this, but with all the resources that Ukraine can master today, how will Ukraine support manpower and material resources? Now that Ukraine has almost tried its best, it is OK to further tap the potential, but with continuous tapping, will it soon reach the exhaustion?
Russia is the same. After all, in addition to the battlefield consumption, Russia is also suffering from severe economic sanctions from Western groups. Although economic and trade ties with other parts of the world have made up for the losses caused by Western sanctions to a considerable extent, economic decline is still inevitable. It is reported that Russia's military factories have already started to produce equipment at full capacity to provide urgent needs on the front lines. Judging from past war experience, this means that the national living security will be significantly tightened.As the war continues to develop on a larger scale, Russia will also have to face a certain degree of tightening in manpower and material resources. Although it cannot be said to be exhausted, it is inevitable that some aspects will be difficult to sustain. For example, in terms of human resources, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu claimed that Russia can mobilize 25 million soldiers, which is a bit of a big deal. There are many issues involved in war mobilization. The reason why President Putin has not conducted full mobilization of until now is because there are many risks and Russian soldiers do not have as much as they want.
From this point of view, whether it is Ukraine or Russia, both sides are struggling to support it, it depends on who can't hold on first, and who will first experience a crisis of exhaustion in terms of manpower and material resources. By then, the Ukrainian war will see the phased results and will be approaching a new state.
The next question is, who will become the loser of this war?
President Zelensky and his team in Ukraine probably wouldn't have thought that he would become a failed regime, because now there are many people supporting , Kiev around the world, and they look very popular, with a large number of people and a grand view. However, if Ukraine cannot support it, the Zelensky authorities will be in danger of becoming a loser in a flash, so it will be very likely to be removed from the grind and killed.
KremlinThe danger of the authorities becoming a failed regime still exists, but this mainly depends on Russia's domestic political and economic conditions, and the impact on the battlefield is not great, because overall, the Russian people agree with this war, and some opposition forces cannot cause great storms. In this sense, President Putin has an incomparable political advantage of President Zelensky. Under such advantages, the isolation and inconsistency that Russia seems internationally will not have any substantial effect on Russia.
However, if the Zelensky authorities fail, then this one will probably not be the only one who won the title of failed regime, and even the authorities of many European countries will be dragged into the ranks of failed countries. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg's words are very mysterious. He said that Russia cannot win and NATO will not allow such a thing to happen. But he did not clearly say that he supported Zelensky's victory, which was very intriguing. Perhaps, in addition to Zelensky's administration, NATO and the Western Group have other bargaining chips and arrangements.
Note: The author of this article is Zhang Zhikun, a core member of the "Qin'an Strategic Think Tank", and is the original work of on this platform . In the new year, I wish everyone join hands, overcome the epidemic, curb hegemony, and move towards a better future together.
