Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for 200 days. After September, a dramatic scene appeared on the Ukrainian battlefield. Under the unfavorable counterattack in August, the Ukrainian army took more than a week to recover 6,000 square kilometers of lost land, and voices of despising the Russian army were heard everywhere. However, Ukraine's major counterattack in September may have started dramatically and ended tragically?
The Ukrainian army's counterattack began in August, mainly a large counterattack in the southern region. However, before the end of August, the Ukrainian army did not make any progress in counterattack, but instead lost a large amount of personnel and equipment. Many Western comments unanimously viewed the Ukrainian counterattack, and the Russian army also claimed that the counterattack in southern Ukraine had basically failed.
However, despite the unfavorable counterattack in the south, Ukrainian President Zelensky issued an order for a full-scale counterattack on August 29. Not only did it strengthen the counterattack in the south, but it also launched a stronger offensive in the eastern region.
9 September has passed for 2 weeks, and in these two weeks, the Ukrainian army actually recovered 6,000 square kilometers of lost land, and it took only 3-5 days to go from 1,000 square kilometers to 6,000 square kilometers, and the offensive was even stronger than the initial offensive of the Russian army's special military operation.
Regarding this, the White House commented: "This is some dramatic event, we are observing. The war is unpredictable." It's so dramatic. What is puzzling is that the Ukrainian army went from decline to offensive overnight. The Russian army went from victory to retreat. This change is really too fast, why is this happening?
First of all, this is related to the Russian army's active retreat. According to the Russian side, the Russian army took the initiative to retreat in order to re-produce military deployment. The main goal of the next step is to liberate the Donbas region on the basis of active defense.
However, this retreat order or re-military deployment order was a week after the Ukrainian army launched a fierce attack. This makes people feel that the so-called active retreat of the Russian army is actually a retreat that cannot withstand the offensive. Therefore, it is reasonable that the voices of criticizing Russia are currently rising.
Secondly, some military experts, scholars and commentators believe that it is obviously Zelensky who successfully used the "speaking south to attack the east" tactic. The previous large-scale counterattack in the south was actually a deception tactic or feint attack. After mobilizing the main force of the Russian army to the south, the troops in the east naturally became empty and powerless. At the same time, the Ukrainian army quietly concentrated its forces to attack the Russian army in the east and caught them off guard. In the absence of troops and poor logistics, the Russian army could only give up Kharkov . This seems to make a lot of sense, too.
Third, it is naturally related to the fact that the Ukrainian army received stronger military aid from the United States and Europe. On the one hand, it has received a large amount of ammunition supplements, as well as more long-range strike weapons. Support in battlefield intelligence information is more important, especially.
The fourth, after more than 200 days of fighting, the Russian army seemed to be in a serious state of fatigue. In the first phase of the battle, I failed to win Kiev in one go; in the second phase of the battle, I did not achieve the goal of completely liberating Donbass. As the saying goes, one-stop work, then two-decline, and then three-decline. In other words, the Russian army is really going to face a defeat.
However, although the above statement makes sense, things do not seem that simple.
Although the front line lacks troops, even in the face of strong military aid from the United States and Europe, the Russian army still has an absolute firepower advantage. The most important thing is that Russia has an absolute air supremacy , which is enough to make up for the shortcomings in military strength. At least, facing the weak Ukrainian army, it will not reach the level of retreat.
Although the firepower of the Ukrainian army has been strengthened, the Ukrainian army is currently more of the newly mobilized and under-trained soldiers, and its combat literacy is far less than that of the Russian army. It is even less proficient in the use of advanced weapons and equipment. If you are not afraid of sacrifice, your combat effectiveness is clearly there.
It is undeniable that the US military's information and intelligence support effect is very great. However, as the world's second military power, the Russian army is obviously not a vegetarian, and it is impossible to be blind on the battlefield.
Even if the Ukrainian army successfully attacked the south and attacked the east, the powerful artillery fire of the Russian army can severely damage the concentrated troops and firepower of the Ukrainian army.
Interestingly, when the Ukrainian army quickly recovered the lost land, the Russian army retreated while concentrating artillery fire to attack Ukrainian power stations and important infrastructure, and did not concentrate firepower to attack the attacking Ukrainian army. This makes people have to doubt the mourning plan adopted by Putin .
The two armies faced each other. In the case of serious firepower imbalance, when fighting against the attack or positional offensive and defensive battles, the weak side obviously suffers a great loss, which is a taboo for military strategists.
If the Russian army went too far before, it was easily disturbed and under control of logistics, then the Ukrainian army concentrated its forces to attack Kharkiv and lost territory, which was equivalent to putting itself in a dangerous place. If the Russian army concentrates its efforts to kill a retaliation and launches a counterattack, can the Ukrainian army still defend it?
At present, the Russian army is obviously defending the south and retreating to the east. Whether intentionally or unintentionally, the next battlefield situation is to face the frontal base or fight a position, which is not conducive to the Ukrainian army's small Kuailing's advantage and is more likely to be severely damaged by the powerful artillery fire of the Russian army.
Putin has made it clear that in the future, we will focus on cracking down on Ukrainian power plants and important infrastructure. The front-line troops are also being re-deployed, and the Ukrainian army is still launching a large-scale counterattack. Then, it is easy to imagine what the next stage of the battle will look like.
The first phase of the Russian war ended one month after the operation. At that time, it also voluntarily withdrew from Kiev, and the Ukrainian army followed by the "moment" pursuit. As a result, a large number of Ukrainian troops died in the Ijium area in the south of Donbas and Kharkov. 70-80% of the Donbass region were "liberated" by the Russian army.
At the same time, in the second phase of the battle, the Russian army captured most of Zaporoze, Khlsong, and part of Nikolayev.
Although Donbas has not been completely liberated so far, the Russian army's main battlefield moved south, which seems to be intentionally slowing down the pace of liberating Donbas area.
At present, the Russian army has taken the initiative to withdraw from Kharkov and re-deploy in military deployment, while the Ukrainian army is taking advantage of the situation to pursue, which seems to be a scene before it is staged again? This is likely to indicate Putin is preparing for the third phase of the battle.
The first phase of the battle took one month. The second phase of the battle took nearly 6 months. In fact, the goal of liberating Donbas in the second phase of the battle was not achieved.
From the process of the second phase of the battle, most of the Russian army was concentrated in the southern region. Although the progress was slow, its main task was to busy implementing "de-Ukrainization" in the southern region. The eastern region was mainly left to the Donbas militia, and the Russian side had previously announced that the initial goal must be achieved and the initial goal must be expanded. That is, we must "liberate" a wider range of regions. In other words, Putin was not in a hurry to end this special military operation, which was obviously a trick.
What is important is that at present, Zaporozhe, Khlsong and some Nikolayev regions are intensifying their de-Ukrainianization. The damage caused by the Ukrainian counterattack has strengthened the awareness of de-Ukrainianity in these areas, which is the most important thing for Putin.
Since it focuses on de-Ukraine, time cannot be so urgent. And sticking to the southern defense line is to gain time to accelerate the de-Ukrainization.
In fact, Putin is not completely focused on the Ukrainian battlefield at present, but focuses on the strategic competition with the United States and Europe.
takes the initiative to sever Europe, which is not only an energy blow to Europe, but also a blow to the psychology of Europeans. Although NATO and EU officials are still claiming to firmly support Ukraine, in fact, the United States is still exporting a large number of weapons and equipment to Ukraine, and the United States has even begun to send weapons to European countries.
Currently, European extreme rightism is rising rapidly, and Ukrainian fatigue in European countries is becoming more and more serious. Not only will we face the energy and economic crisis caused by the Ukrainian war crisis, but we will also face the double blow of the appreciation of the US dollar. Europe, which is accelerating its recession, is unlikely to work with the United States to fully support Ukraine.
This may be the important reason why Zelensky counterattacked at all costs and was eager to prove his victory.Only in this way can Europe see its military aid, make money worth it, and let Europe continue to firmly support itself, and the same is true for the United States.
This big counterattack actually started with the shelling of Zaporo thermonuclear power plant , which was obviously desperate. In fact, it is also known that Zaporoze, Khlsson, Nikolayev and other places are completely lost, which also shows that he does not want these areas anymore. Bombing off nuclear power plants can only enhance the "intention to leave" of the Ukrainians in the southern region.
Perhaps it was precisely because of the awareness of Zelensky's final madness that Putin changed his strategy and tactics. Zelen's current crazy actions not only embarrass the United States and Europe, but also despised the international community. It can be said that Zelian blows away the sympathy of the world.
At present, the Russian economy has not been hit hard as expected by the United States and Europe. Putin even said that this special military operation will suffer no losses and no losses at all. The implication is that "gains can be compensated for losses."
Another thing is that the sharp deterioration of Sino-US relations and the possible escalation of confrontation are absolutely good news for Russia, which means that the United States may give up and ignore it after this round of strong military aid. Even if the war is not started directly, the intensity of the confrontation between China and the United States will not be less intense than that of the United States and Russia, and may even be larger and more comprehensive. The United States cannot confront fiercely with the two sides of China and Russia at the same time.
At present, China's position and statements on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have also undergone subtle changes. Continuous high-level meetings will further strengthen bilateral relations, which will naturally further enhance Putin's confidence in achieving Ukrainian goals.
Although G7 jointly expressed its firm support for Ukraine, French President Macron also clearly pointed out that France and the EU will never be vassals of the United States. This represents the attitude of some EU countries, and also shows that firm support can only be verbal or larger than the content.
Although Zelensky is crazy, he will not be unaware that the current international situation is becoming increasingly unfavorable to Ukraine. He will not have a premonition that the EU will eventually abandon itself, and the United States may be the same. Singing to Russia is obviously a psychological self-comfort, and it may also be a cheering for Europe.
The general feeling is that the current Russian army does have some difficulties, but if it is said that the Russian army is exhausted or will retreat, or Zelensky is turning around the battlefield, in the words of White House spokesman Kirby, it is: Ukrainian President Zelensky has the most say in the turning point of the war.
Even if the Russian army retreated this time, there will definitely be big moves after re-deployment. If Putin does not want to go to Ukrainianization in Kharkov, or does not want to split, the next step is to take large-scale artillery fire strikes, forcing the Ukrainian army to not dare to move forward. This is of course to accelerate the demilitarization of Ukraine.
At present, it seems that Donbas is not in a hurry to liberation. The Donbas armed forces must bear more responsibility for self-protection, while Nikolayev in the south must take it down, which is related to the siege of Odessa and the security of Crimea .
Judging from the current focus of the Russian army on the Ukrainian power station electric fields and important infrastructure, it is obviously preparing for the winter battle.
Currently giving up Kharkov is likely to have given up on the idea of implementing de-Ukrainization here, or even the idea of taking Odessa. This is to prepare for future negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. If you force Zelian to be forced to give up, you have to give up some face or live.
Zelian attacked Kharkov and Nikolayev at all costs, but did not want to lose these two important areas. After this round of attack, it is likely that the beginning of contact negotiations, which can be regarded as his bargaining chips for negotiations.
In short, the current situation does not mean that the Ukrainian army's combat power has been greatly improved, nor does it mean that the Russian army will retreat, but that Putin is re-arranging. The Ukrainian army's fierce attack at all costs is likely to be adding bargaining chips for the subsequent negotiations, or to show an attitude that Russia is accelerating its de-Ukrainization in its controlled areas, and Ukraine has also been accelerating its de-Russia in its own country recently. The longer the Ukrainian army fought, the more territory it would split out.Now, being able to preserve most of Kharkov and Nikolayev and Odessa is already a victory for Zelensky.
(Source: Kunlun Ce.com [author authorization] , converted from "Dynamic Big Reference")
