Reporter of the Economic Business: Zheng Yuhang 未分类彩 Editor: Lan Suying
Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of new non-farm employment in the United States exceeded expectations in September, and the unemployment rate fell to a low of nearly 50 years again, which shows that the US labor market may still be tight, and it once again slim the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve's policy will turn faster than expected. After the data of
was released, the three major indexes of US stocks collectively fell sharply, all of which hit the largest closing decline since the US CPI in August announced on September 13.
Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 630.15 points to 29296.79, a drop of 2.1%. S&P 500 fell 2.8% to 3639.66 points. Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.8% to 10,652.41 points, only less than 1% higher than the year's low.
Image source: CNBC screenshot
Among them, chip stocks generally fell sharply on the same day, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and semiconductor industry ETF SOXX closed down 6.1% and 6%, while cumulative increase of more than 2.2% this week. Among the component of the S&P 500 IT sector, NVDA (NVDA, stock price of US$12.076, market value of US$300.692 billion) closed down 8%, Applied Materials (AMAT, stock price of US$82.60, market value of US$71.062 billion) fell 6.3%, Ram Research (LRCX, stock price of US$374.84, market value of US$51.348 billion) fell 5.7%, and Intel (INTC, stock price of US$25.72, market value of US$105.606 billion) fell nearly 5.4%.
AMD (AMD, stock price is $58.55, market value is $94.341 billion) fell for two consecutive days after three consecutive days, and fell 13.87% on Friday to $58.44. AMD released its initial third-quarter results after the market on Thursday, with revenue of approximately US$5.6 billion, while previous guidance was US$6.5 billion to US$6.9 billion; adjusted gross profit margin is expected to be around 50%, while previous guidance is close to 54%. AMD said revenue declines were due to “the PC market was weaker than expected and major inventory correction actions for the entire PC supply chain.”
Image source: Futuniu Niu Screenshot
Judging from weekly data, the S&P 500 index rose 1.5% in five days, ending a three-week decline. According to Bloomberg, the index has fluctuated more than 1% on the 40th consecutive Sunday, a long-term volatility that has not been seen since 2009. The S&P 500 fell 24% in nine months, a margin that surpassed five of the previous down cycles.
The capital market turmoil is not limited to stocks. From bonds to currencies and commodities , asset volatility is also increasing. Bloomberg reported that market performance warned the Fed to stop rate hikes as soon as possible to avoid economic and financial consequences. Data compiled by Bank of the United States shows that the pressure on the global financial system has been higher recently than any time after the 2020 new crown pandemic.
Bloomberg commented that central bank governors and investors misjudged the stickiness of inflation. Recently (market performance) it has become clear that retailers have miscalculated consumer demand and ended up stocking up too many unwanted items.
Former vice president of the China Institute of Modern International Relations and senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank Wang Zaibang replied to the reporter of " Daily Economic News " on WeChat that in the context of the interweaving and entanglement of the food crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the product supply chain has been deformed and distorted, resulting in inflation being insensitive to interest rate hikes and shrinking the balance . Therefore, if the Russian-Ukraine war is delayed for a long time, the world economy will likely fall into recession.
According to data from FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters, 4% of S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter earnings. So far, 55% of companies have mentioned the impact of supply chain disruptions on earnings, and 50% have said adverse currency movements have hindered earnings.
"In fact, this figure reported in the third quarter (i.e. the proportion of companies whose currency movements pose a barrier to earnings) has increased for the fourth consecutive quarter," FactSet reported.
When the U.S. stock market closed on Friday, the dollar index was above 112.70, rising nearly 0.5% in the day. This is the third day when the index rose after five consecutive days of declines, and this week it has risen by more than 0.5%. The Bloomberg dollar spot index, which tracks the exchange rates of the US dollar against ten other currencies, closed up 0.4%, which was also the third consecutive rise, at its high since September 28, and rose more than 0.2% this week.Both of these indexes rebounded after a two-week rise last week.
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