Gold Ten Data: www.jin10.com
On Wednesday, due to the significant progress in Trump's tax reform, the strength of US stocks and the US dollar caused gold to fall three consecutive times, and spot gold has fallen to around the $1,320 mark; the IEA monthly report shows that global crude oil production fell in August, causing both US and Blanc to rise, and the sharp increase in EIA inventory did not interrupt the rise.
· US dollar and US stocks rose, gold was under pressure and fell for three consecutive days;
· Details of Trump's tax reform will be released on September 25;
· The monthly rate of US PPI rose compared with last month;
· Both US Brent oils rose, and Brent oil hit a five-month high;
· IEA report said that global crude oil production fell in August;
· EIA crude oil inventories and US production increased sharply, and gasoline inventories decreased sharply.
precious metals: Optimism helps rise US stocks and US dollar. Gold continues to fall on Wednesday
. On Wednesday, investors' optimism spread in the market. The strength of US stocks and US dollar has caused gold to usher in three consecutive daily declines. The price of gold futures for delivery in December of the New York Stock Exchange fell by $4.70 or 0.4% to $1,328 per ounce, setting the lowest closing price since August 31. Spot gold fell below the 1330 mark and fluctuated at the 1320 mark at the close. Silver futures for December delivery fell 2.3 cents or 0.1% to close at $17.867 per ounce.
At the close of US stocks yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.18%, the S&P 500 rose 0.08%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.09%, all hitting a record high in the closing price. As of the close of the gold futures market, the US dollar index also rose 0.6% to 92.45, up 1.2% so far this week, the largest single-week gain since mid-December 2016, which is enough to show how optimistic the market is about the US economy. The reason why the market holds such an attitude is that Trump has made significant progress in tax reform. White House Budget Office Director Mick Mulvaney said on Fox Business TV on Wednesday that the revised tax reform details will be released in advance on September 25, a date confirmed by House Speaker Ryan. However, there are still disputes between the parties on the tax rate, and Trump "stubbornly" wants to reduce the company tax to 15%, while Ryan believes that 22.5% will be more feasible.
In addition, the game of speculating on whether the Fed raises interest rates is still going on. Now in the silent period before the FOMC interest rate meeting, the market mainly judges the chance of interest rate hikes based on data performance. In the data released last night, the US PPI monthly rate in August recorded 0.2%, rebounding from -0.1% last month, mainly due to the hurricane's boost to US gasoline prices. Some analysts believe that the impact of gasoline prices will also be reflected in the upcoming CPI monthly rate, when inflation data may rise compared with the previous one.
However, Oanda senior market analyst Craig Erlam poured cold water on the market's optimism. He believes that even if the market is calm now, provocations on the Korean Peninsula have decreased and hostility weakened, there are still many potential geopolitical risk factors, which will suppress risk appetite to a certain extent. The longer the calm period lasts, the more relaxed investors will feel and the more violent the rebound in the future will be.
Among other metal contracts traded by the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of copper futures for December delivery fell 5.5 cents or 1.8%, closing at $2.981/lb; the price of platinum futures for October delivery fell 3.30 or 0.3%, closing at $983.20/oz; the price of palladium futures for December delivery fell 9.70 or 1%, closing at $933.70/oz.
Energy category: IEA monthly report assisted Brent oil to hit a May high, EIA inventory may become a hidden concern
Following OPEChtml October monthly report and EIA short-term energy outlook report, good news came from the monthly report released by the IEA yesterday, which caused international oil prices to rise for three consecutive days. The WTI crude oil delivered by the New York Stock Exchange in October rose 1.07 USD or 2.2%, to $49.30 per barrel, a five-week high; the Brent crude oil futures delivered by the ICE exchange also rose 0.89 USD or 1.6%, to $55.16 per barrel, the highest closing price in five months.
International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report on Wednesday that global crude oil production in August fell by 720,000 barrels per day compared with July to 97.7 million barrels per day, mainly due to civil unrest in Libya and the forced interruption of U.S. crude oil production activities due to the attack of Hurricane Harvey. Prior to this, OPEC's monthly report released on Tuesday also indicated that crude oil production is showing a downward trend.
ClipperData Commodity Department Head Matt Smith analyzed that in yesterday's IEA monthly report, global crude oil demand was still rising, while OECD inventory was tightening, which is the reason why Brent oil prices rose sharply during this period. In the United States, due to the previous Hurricane Harvey hitting crude oil demand, the rise in WTI oil prices is not as fierce as Brent oil, and is catching up recently.
However, some factors in the EIA data last night need to be wary of investors, among which crude oil inventories increased by 5.888 million barrels, a 27-week high, higher than expected and previous values; Cushing's inventories increased by 1.023 million barrels, also a 5-month high. In terms of refining products, gasoline inventory decreased by 8.428 million barrels, a new low in 26 years; refined oil inventory decreased by 3.215 million barrels, a new low in six months. This shows that Hurricane Harvey's damage to U.S. crude oil demand and supply of refined products has not recovered.
Compared with that, crude oil production recovers faster. In the EIA data, U.S. domestic crude oil production fell rapidly in the week ending September 1, but it quickly rebounded by 572,000 barrels to 9.353 million barrels per day this week.
In other energy transactions at the NYCC, the price of gasoline futures for delivery in October fell 1 cent to $1.647/ gallon ; the price of natural gas futures for delivery in October closed up 5.7 cents or 1.9% to $3.058/million British thermal units.
