. Macro liquidity: Domestic macro liquidity continues to remain loose, while US bond interest rates have experienced a process of accelerating upward to a temporary high, which is still the main contradiction to suppress the "new semi-army".
Domestic macro liquidity has continued to remain loose since the beginning of the year, and the current degree of easing is even worse than at the end of April. Since the beginning of this year, the central bank's monetary policy has continued to remain loose. According to the monetary condition index we have exclusively built, the current level of domestic macro liquidity easing is even worse than that of the end of April, or even more than March 2020, and is not the main constraint of the "New Semi-English Army".
From the perspective of long-term interest rates of US bonds, they are currently similar to the end of April, and have both risen sharply to temporary highs, becoming the main contradiction in suppressing the "new semi-army". The Fed has continued to release a strong interest rate hike since the first rate hike in March. The long-term interest rate of US Treasury bonds accelerated from 1.7% to a high of 3.1%, which has significantly suppressed the "New Semi-English Army"; and since August, the Fed has aggressive interest rate hike under the increasing inflationary pressure, pushing the long-term interest rate of US Treasury bonds to rise from 2.6% to 4%, setting a new high since 2010, causing the "New Semi-English Army" to enter adjustment.
Looking back, domestic macro liquidity is likely to continue to remain loose, while US debt is still the main contradiction in the phased suppression of the "New Semi-English Army", but the pressure may also gradually ease. htmlAfter the end of April, as the Fed's interest rate hike in May "falls", the degree of hawks was less than market expectations, the main contradiction of US bonds suppressing stock prices eased, and the "New Semi-English Army" then ushered in a reversal; and the current Fed's aggressive interest rate hike has led to the pressure of US economic recession gradually showing, and the US bond interest rate is dominated by the alternating recession transactions and tightening transactions. The fastest upward phase may be in the past, and the continued upward space has converged, and the suppression of the "New Semi-English Army" is also expected to gradually ease. At the same time, considering the downward pressure on the domestic economy and the complexity of the overseas environment, domestic macro liquidity is likely to continue to remain loose, which will also provide support for the "New Semi-English Army".
. Prosperity: The leading indicator points to the "New Semi-English Army" that is already in the bottom area, and is expected to start a new round of upward
html At the end of April, analysts expected the correction intensity. This leading indicator points to the "New Semi-English Army" that is already in the bottom area and will usher in a reversal in May, and the current indicator also points to the "New Semi-English Army" that is already at the bottom and will start a new round of upward tide in late October. analysts expect the correction intensity as an important indicator that we exclusively build to portray the prosperity and profit. The most unique feature is that it is leading the "New Semi-jun" stock price by 80 trading days, which can help us forward-lookingly predict the turning point and the sustainability of the "New Semi-jun" stock price. At the end of April, analysts expected that the leading indicator of correction intensity pointed to the "New Semi-English Army" that was already in the bottom area and will reverse in May. The current "New Semi-English Army" has dropped to the bottom area again, and the indicator points to late October that a new round of upward movement may begin.
. Financial report exceeds expectations: The first quarter report verification "New Semi-jun" continues to maintain high prosperity, becoming an important catalysis of the reversal in May. It will now enter an important time window for the third quarter report's prosperity verification
html At the end of April, with the disclosure of the first quarter report, the prosperity of the "New Semi-jun" continues to be verified, and the intensity of the financial report exceeds expectations has increased significantly. Among them, the high prosperity may exceed the expectations of the segmentation direction and the stocks lead the market, and it will also enter an important time window for the third quarter report's prosperity verification. html At the end of April, with the disclosure of the first quarter report, the high prosperity of the "New Semi-Military Army" continued to be verified, and the intensity indicators beyond expectations rose significantly, eliminating the market's concerns about the downward profits and becoming an important catalytic factor for the stock price reversal in May; and it will now enter the financial report disclosure window period again, which will also become an important time window for the verification of the prosperity of the "New Semi-Military Army". Judging from the year-on-year change indicators of expected net profit, the "New Semi-jun" is still facing differentiation, but for the segmented directions and individual stocks that maintain high prosperity or perform beyond expectations in the third quarter report, it is expected to lead the market in the new round of upward trend.
. Congestion: The congestion of the "New Semi-English Army" has dropped to the water level at the end of April
Congestion is an important indicator exclusively constructed by Xingzheng Strategy Team to reflect the trading sentiment of popular tracks. It is synthesized from the four dimensions of volume, price, capital, and analyst predictions and seven indicators. It quantitatively tracks changes in market sentiment, which has strong indicative significance for the short-term trend of the stock price.
The current congestion of the "New Semi-English Army" has dropped to the water level at the end of April. html At the end of April, Xingzheng Strategy was bullish on the "New Half Army" at the bottom. An important signal is that the "New Half Army" congestion has dropped to a low level; and after experiencing recent fluctuations and adjustments, the current "New Half Army" congestion has fallen back to a low level again, among which the new energy and semiconductor congestion has been lower than the level at the end of April, and military industry has also dropped to a low range.
. Funds: The main funds of the "New Semi-jun" have reappeared a turning point in net inflow, and private equity fund has returned to increasing positions again
html At the end of April, the main funds of the "New Semi-jun" have been converted into inflow, and the current main funds have also reappeared a turning point in net inflow. The inflow and outflow of the main funds is an important signal to identify the turning point of the "New Semi-English Army". It has a certain leading position in the stock price and is an important force to push the stock price to end the adjustment and return to the rise. At the end of April, the main funds of the "New Semi-Military" had turned into inflows, and at present, the net inflow indicator of the main funds of the "New Semi-Military" has also reappeared a turning point in net inflows.
In addition, private equity funds have returned to increase their positions. calculates the changes in the holdings of in the growth style of stock long private equity funds. After the end of April, the position of of private equity funds once increased significantly, becoming one of the important incremental funds to support the reversal of the "new semi-army". Although the positions of private equity funds have experienced large fluctuations in recent times, they have gradually returned to increasing their positions.
. Funds: The main funds of the "New Semi-jun" have reappeared a turning point in net inflow, and private equity funds have returned to increasing their positions in
The current "New Semi-jun" valuation quantiles are close to the low at the end of April. At the end of April, the PE valuations of new energy, semiconductor and military industry were 28.1x, 34.2x and 41.2x respectively, and the rolling one-year valuation quantiles were 0%; while the current PE valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation valuation
. Adjustment range and time: Although it has not reached the pullback from the end of last year to April, it has also been close to or exceeding the median or average level of , which has been pulled back since 2019, since
. Although the adjustment range and time of the "New Semi-English Army" since August has not reached the pullback from the end of last year to April this year, it has been close to or exceeding the median or average level of the pullback amplitude and time of the pullback since 2019. In the adjustments of since August, the number of days for new energy recall has exceeded the median of previous reminders since 2019, and the amplitude has also approached the median and mean level; the number of days for semiconductor recall has basically approached the median and mean level, and the amplitude of the callback exceeds the median and mean level; the number of days for military industry recall has exceeded the median and mean level, and the amplitude of the callback is basically close to the median and mean level.
2. Summary
Summary, compared with the end of April, the current "new semi-army" is compared with the end of April:
(1) Macro liquidity: Domestic macro liquidity continues to remain loose, while US bond interest rates have all experienced a process of accelerating upward to a temporary high, In order to suppress the main contradiction of "New Semi-English Army";
(2) Prosperity: analysts expect to correct the expectation and emphasize that this leading indicator points to the "New Semi-English Army" that has fallen back to the bottom area, and a new round of upward movement may begin in late October;
(3) Financial report exceeds expectations: 's first quarter report verifies that the "New Semi-English Army" continues to maintain a high prosperity, becoming an important urging for the reversal in May. , and it will also enter an important time window for the verification of the prosperity of the third quarter report. The "New Semi-English Army" is still facing differentiation, but for the segmentation directions and individual stocks that maintain high prosperity or perform beyond expectations in the third quarter report, it is expected to lead the market in the new round of upward trend;
(4) Crowding: "New Semi-English Army" has dropped to a historical low water level at the end of April;
(5 ) Funds: The main funds of have reappeared the turning point of net inflow, and private equity funds have returned to increasing their positions again;
(6) Valuation: 's "New Semi-English Army" valuation quantile has returned to the low in April;
(7) Adjustment range and time: Although has not reached the pullback from the end of last year to April, it has also approached or exceeded the median and average level of all pullbacks since 2019.
Risk warning
. Historical experience and indicators may have a risk of failure; 2. There may be a risk of different conclusions in statistics in different intervals; 3. The risk of errors in the calculation results and actual results due to incomplete data.
This article comes from the financial world
