Hello everyone, I am a quantum panda.
Today, the Bureau of Statistics disclosed the CPI and PPI data for July, among which CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month. If you pull out the historical data, you can see that CPI is basically running all the way this year. The trend line of
looks really scary, but with the specific data, the average inflation from January to July is actually only about 1.8%. According to the government work report at the beginning of the year, the CPI target for the whole year is 3%, and there are still 5 months left, which means that there is basically no pressure to achieve the annual target.
pats the head, and the annual CPI is about 2%-2.5%.
In addition, in terms of PPI, it dropped to 4.2% in July, which was still relatively strong on the previous month. If the pressure on PPI is relieved and smooth, you can still look forward to the next round of interest rate cuts.
Then enter the new content, and it is still our regular statement at the beginning.
Given that the registration system is gradually opening up and the issue price breaks of new stocks is gradually becoming normalized, and the new stocks in my company have also encountered a situation of breaking the issue price... So I decided to launch a must-read series for new stocks to specifically analyze and judge the subscription value of new stocks.
This part of the research began in November 2021. As of now, hundreds of new stocks have been analyzed, and the overall statistics show that the accuracy rate is close to 90%. However, because new stocks are more susceptible to multiple factors than listed companies, and the data verification cycle is still short, there will be certain risks.
So what I can guarantee is that I will tell you how I analyzed it, and I will follow this plan, and what I can't guarantee is that I will definitely not break the issue.
New stock inspection elements description
inspection elements 1: comparable industries and enterprises.
Look at the business scope of the company, judge the subordinate industries, and select comparable companies with a high degree of similarity. Of course, it is the most convenient to have ready-made things.
Investigation elements 2: Issuance price and Issuance price-earnings ratio .
Referring to the recent break of the issue, the higher the stock price, the greater the risk of breaking the issue, and this factor is not very important. Under the registration system, the pricing and valuation of new stocks are more market-oriented. The value of any company cannot get rid of the industry fundamentals and corporate fundamentals, so the price-to-earnings ratio is the absolute key element of new stock analysis.
Excellent companies can indeed obtain higher valuations than the industry because of their growth potential higher than the industry, so the third step is growth potential.
Investigation element 3: Performance status.
The company's previous revenue and profit are steady growth or decline year by year? Whether there are large fluctuations, if there are large fluctuations, we need to focus on whether there is suspicion of adjusting the statement for listing and valuation.
Investigation element 4: Market sentiment.
It is undeniable that in addition to fundamentals, the influence of sentiment is also very heavy, especially for some hot tracks, the willingness to speculate on funds. Therefore, this part of the analysis will also be appropriately increased in consideration of comprehensive considerations. Of course, everything still needs to be based on fundamentals.
enters the official content below.
A new stock subscription can be analyzed on August 11, 2022:
Di'aowei (688381):
Basic information of the enterprise:
full name "Jiangsu Di'ao Microelectronics Co., Ltd.", its main business is the research, development, design and sales of analog integrated circuit chips.
company's products mainly include two series of signal chain simulation chips and power management simulation chips. They are mainly used in consumer electronics, intelligent LED lighting, communication equipment , industrial control and security, and medical devices. The specific details are as follows:
a, signal chain simulation chip
signal chain simulation chip is mainly responsible for signal processing, signal amplification, signal detection, etc. Depending on the specific functions, the signal chain analog chip can be further divided into amplifiers, comparators, analog-to-digital/digital-to-analog converters, and various interfaces and switch products.
Company's signal chain simulation chips specifically include the following three categories:
b, power management simulation chip
power management simulation chip is the heart of the power supply of all electronic devices, responsible for the conversion, distribution, detection and monitoring of electrical energy of electronic devices, and plays an important role in electronic devices.Therefore, in order to achieve the best performance, electronic systems need to choose the most suitable power management method.
's power management analog chips cover low voltage and high power density power management chip and high power power conversion and management chips. They are classified according to specific functions as follows:
's business mainly focuses on analog chip design, and the model is also adopted Fabless, that is, only R&D design, production, packaging and testing outsourcing.
In terms of specific revenue, the main revenue is relatively uniform, and the signal chain analog chip and power management analog chip are basically half to half.
Company has established stable cooperative relationships with senior electronic components distributors in the industry such as WPI Group and Wenye Group. The products have entered the supply chain system of many well-known end customers, such as OPPO, Xiaomi , Shanpu Lighting, Dahua , Hikvision , KL, Huaqin and Wingtai.
Due to its relatively focused business, the corresponding Shenwan third-level industry is analog chip design. Comparable listed companies are Shengbang Co., Ltd. (300661), Siruipu (688536), Aiwei Electronics (688798), Jingfeng Mingyuan (688368), Lixinwei (688601), Xinpengwei (688508), and Xidiwei (688173).
issuance status:
enterprises are led underwritten by CITIC Construction Investment Securities , and co-lead underwriter of Pacific Securities . The current market value is 7.884 billion yuan, the newly issued market value is 2.628 billion yuan, the issuance price is 41.68 yuan, the issuance price-earnings ratio is 67.10, PE-TTM35.06x, and the maximum subscription for requires a market value of 160,000 yuan.
versus analog chip design industry PE-TTM is 55.27x, Shengbang shares are 71.11x, Siruipu is 89.33x, Aiwei Electronics is 66.26x, Jingfeng Mingyuan is 14.53x, Lixinwei is 39.96x, Xinpengwei is 41.32x, and Xidiwei is 416.88x.
performance:
From January to September 2022, the company expects to achieve operating income of approximately RMB 410 million to RMB 450 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 13.62% to 24.71%;
expects to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company owners of approximately RMB 165 million to RMB 175 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 46.71% to 55.60%;
expects to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company owners of approximately RMB 150 million to RMB 160 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 36.83% to 45.95%.
The main reason is that the company has continued its fast sales growth trend, further optimized its product structure, and its gross profit margin has grown steadily, and its net profit attributable to its parent company owners has grown rapidly year-on-year.
21 operating income was RMB 507.6502 million, RMB 247.537 million in 2020, RMB 136.6481 million in 2019, with an annual compound growth rate of 92.74%.
21 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 156.6561 million, in 2021, net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 31.012 million, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 415,600, with an annual compound growth rate of 1841.49%.
2019-2021, the revenue and profit growth rate were very high, among which profit growth was mainly concentrated in 2021. Then in the first half of 2022, although revenue and profit continued to grow, the growth rate declined.
is the dual driving force of domestic production and chip shortage in 2021.
In terms of specific gross profit margin, the gross profit margins of main business from 2019 to 2021 were 39.80%, 37.34% and 53.64% respectively. The absolute value of the gross profit margin is still good. In 2021, the gross profit margin has increased significantly due to chip shortage. Compared with peers,
is at a medium level.
From the perspective of the company's fundamentals, the performance growth is not bad, and the gross profit margin is also good, but the performance has exceeded its peak and fallen. .
Judging from the issuance situation, issuance of on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the issuance unit price is slightly higher, the issuance price-earnings ratio is slightly higher, and PE-TTM looks average.
was summarized as follows, and it is hard to say about the recent semiconductor sentiment.
New rating: Be cautious, my operation: Subscription.
subscription suggestions:
is positive, the fundamentals and issuance are good, and the risk of breaking the issue is small.
Be cautious, there are certain problems with the fundamentals or issuance situation, and the risk of breaking the issue is average.
gave up, there are major problems in the fundamentals or issuance situation, and the risk of breaking the issue is relatively high.
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