CPT Markets Information Analysis: The warning signal is coming! The United States is at the center of the global financial bubble?
recession doubts storm have recurred. In addition to the thorny problem of high inflation, the US economy, which is still stable, has also been worried in the August consumer price index released in August, also makes people worry. The outside world is speculating whether there are three major bubbles in the United States, namely in the US stock market, real estate and technological innovation. However, for those who have a more pessimistic market view, they are actually wary of the danger signal of "Lehman level"!
First of all, let's first explore the US stock market. Taking the current S&P 500 Index as an example, its risk premium is about 2.3%, which is actually the same as the fall of 2007 before the outbreak of the US financial crisis , but it is about 1.9 percentage points lower than the average level after the Lehman crisis. In general, the above situation shows that investors have a tendency to be overly optimistic.
Come again, we mentioned that in the housing market, the rise in loan interest rates and the continued rise in housing prices have significantly put the sales volume on the brakes. According to the inventory data of newly built residential buildings in the United States in July, it has reached 464,000 units, setting a new high since March 2008.
Recently, the US mortgage institution Freddie Mac has released data that is very worried about the market, that is, the fixed interest rate for 30-year mortgages has actually risen to 6.02%. This is the first time since the financial crisis in October 2008, it has risen above 6%, which has also led to mortgage lenders becoming the number one victim of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
The active interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve has stimulated the surge in mortgage interest rates. This move has caused potential buyers to increase the mortgage burden that must be repaid every month by hundreds of dollars or more, thus forcing them to choose to rent instead of buying, which gradually cools down the originally hot housing market.
As for technological innovation, it must be seen from the US Nasdaq Index . The index has frequently lit up a red light since the Lehman crisis, and the technical trend chart has continuously shown a sell signal, that is, death crossing . For the bubble caused by overcapacity, its natural enemy is that the US Federal Reserve's active austerity policy, which will inevitably increase its significant impact on the asset market.
Goldman Sachs Group said that recently, after increasing the forecast for the rate hike for the Fed, the forecast for the US in 2023 has been lowered. Considering such a positive path to rate hike and the recent tightening of financial situation, various factors predict that the economic growth and employment prospects will deteriorate next year. Therefore, Goldman Sachs has also increased its forecast for the unemployment rate, which is expected to reach around 3.7% by the end of 2022, and this ratio will continue to rise. It is even boldly predicting that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.2% by the end of 2024.
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