EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have declined, but they are also unable to fight the global oversupply environment. Crude oil prices on the New York Stock Exchange fell below $27 per barrel on Thursday.
U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA released data showing that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 754,000 barrels that week. This should have supported the rise in oil prices. But gasoline and refined oil stocks are much higher than expected.
ANZ report shows that the crude oil market believes that no crude oil inventories are only temporary, and oil prices are under pressure.
IEA and EIA both said this week that they expected the oversupply situation to last for several months, causing oil prices to continue to be sluggish. OPEC's monthly report on Wednesday lowered its global oil demand growth forecast.
BMI research report shows that what makes the New York Stock Exchange a little relieved is that the WTI's premium to Brent crude oil continues to expand, making the US crude oil export competitiveness increase.
Although the dollar weakened due to Yellen’s dovish testimony on Wednesday, it did not boost oil prices.
Phillip Futures analysts said that judging from the current oil price trend, it is not only fundamentals that are dragging down prices, but the spread of bearish sentiment in the market is also dragging down oil prices. "We firmly believe that the opportunity to buy on dips is coming."
This round of decline in oil prices also violates the historical correlation with gold. Usually, oil will rise and fall with gold. However, spot gold has risen to an 8-month high due to the weakening of the US dollar, and has risen above the market psychological price level of $1,200 per ounce.
The world's largest shipping company, Maersk, Denmark, announced its 2015 annual report, said in an interview with the Financial Times that global trade conditions are worse than the peak of the 2008 financial crisis. Crude oil prices continued to remain at lows from 2008 to 2009, and there was no sign of a rise in the short term. Freight rates continued to be sluggish, while the external environment was even worse. According to Maersk Line's annual report data, Danish companies' profits fell by 82% in 2015, a full drop of US$5 billion from 2014, and their profits in 2015 were only US$925 million.
and Maersk Line's huge profit decline is mainly due to the shrinking of its $2.5 billion crude oil assets in the UK, Brazil and several other financial markets. This figure is not only a huge loss, but also shocks analysts. The crude oil, which has fallen sharply by 70% in the past 18 months, is the crux of the sharp decline in Maersk's profits. Anderson said in a accompanying statement:
"We expect oil prices to remain low for a long time, and the value of many Maersk's oil assets will continue to be damaged."
In addition, the global shipping industry is in a very bad state, the prices of commodities are cold, the crazy fluctuations in financial markets around the world, and the continued slowdown in China's economy have all caused headaches for major giants. Jeremy Payne, CEO of the Baltic Shipping Exchange, also said in an interview with the Daily Telegraph in January:
"At this stage, we have awakened the difficult days of the 1990s and 1970s. Now, the original "memory" seems to come in handy in this difficult era."
According to Business insider in January, the Baltic dry bulk shipping index, considered a weather vane for the global economy, has set a record low of 369 points, indicating a global economic slowdown. But since the report, the Baltic dry bulk shipping index has not stopped falling and continued to fall below 300 last week. But although the situation at Maersk Line seems to be very serious, Andersen was optimistic in an interview with the Financial Times that they will not only survive this difficult time, but also benefit from it.
[Technical]: Looking at the daily line, the K-line is five consecutive negative. The sub-picture MACD has a high volume fork, and the KDJ has a dead fork, and the market is weak. The upper resistance is focused on the 5-day moving average around 187. Mainly operate high altitudes within the day.
four-hour line, the market breaks down, the MACD dead cross runs, the moving average spreads downward, and bears bearish. The upper resistance focuses on the 10-day moving average of 183, the strong resistance looks at the Bollinger middle track 190, and the short-term support below focuses on the Bollinger lower track 173. Mainly operate high altitudes within the day. Overview, the market is weakly consolidated. Mainly operate the idea at high altitude! Grasp the area 182-171 and the area 195-160.
[Spot crude oil operation suggestions] 1. 182-184 short, stop loss 186, target 178-175 2. Unexpected short, near 191-193, stop loss 195, target 187-185 3. First see long, stop loss 171, stop loss 167, target 175-178 4. Break down 167, rebound near 170 short, stop loss 174, target 166-164. The above positions are reasonable to control. Friends who are trapped in a long position will give you the best exit strategy to help you reduce losses or even make profits. Most of the friends who are placed in order are unwilling to leave because they are reluctant to leave the market, because they are reluctant to fall back or rise. This kind of luck mentality shrouded in profits and losses makes you begin to be confused and lose yourself, and just resist orders without stop loss. When making orders, you should pay attention to skills and mentality. Don’t always want to eat a fat man in one bite. Take a good stop loss and make steady profits. Do a good job of risk planning. Don’t be lucky. No matter how many points you trap, you can reasonably grasp the trend and solve it steadily. Choose the right point to enter the market to make up for the losses. I also hope to do my best to help you the greatest extent. What Teacher Jin Wei can give you is more objective guidance. The final decision on success or failure of subjective operations is always in your hands. I will guide you to formulate the most robust and conservative operating plans and strategies for you. But in the end, how you operate and choose are still within your control. For more technical analysis, base analysis, or loss of orders, and more crude oil consultation, please add your WeChat: jinweijiepan
