On June 11, the "king of cycles" China COSCO Shipping (601919.SH) opened higher and closed higher at , closing at 25.88 yuan, up 3.4%, with a turnover of 11.27 billion yuan, ranking third in the two markets with a total market value of 317.3 billion yuan.
China COSCO Ocean Control Trend Chart (Daily K-line)
In this round of cyclical stock carnival, in fact, the biggest increase in is not the familiar steel, nonferrous metals, coal, chemicals, etc., but the shipping leader China COSCO Ocean Control. A year ago today, COSCO Shipping Holdings' share price was less than 3.50 yuan; now the share price has soared by more than 7 times and hit a new high since 2008, which shows its explosive power. Although the stock price of
has risen so much, some securities firms are still optimistic about it, and its highest target price has been raised to 38 yuan per share. Why can COSCO Shipping increase so much? What is the logic behind the rise? Is there still room for continued future?
The painful memories of investors
Now it has reached a new high in 13 years
Speaking of COSCO Shipping, many people are not familiar with it, but when they mention the former name " China Ocean Shipping ", many investors immediately had painful memories, which also made countless investors frightened about "cyclical stocks".
China Oceanwide was once known as the "king of cycles". The biggest reason is that it is too cyclical. The container fleet capacity is second only to Maersk and Mediterranean shipping, ranking third in the world. Its performance and stock price performance are also closely related to the global aviation industry prosperity.
pictures According to the official website
China Ocean Shipping was a typical example of cyclical stocks disillusioned. In June 2007, China Ocean Shipping was listed at the peak of its shipping industry, with an issue price of 8.48 yuan per share. The stock price rose to 68.4 yuan in the year of listing, but the shipping industry soon "cycle recession". Since 2009, China Ocean Shipping entered a recession period, and its stock price plummeted, falling from the peak of 68.4 yuan, falling to a low of 2.68 yuan, down 95%.
How miserable is the person who suffers the worst losses? You will know after seeing China Oceanwide that 95% has fallen! At its highest, the market value of 650 billion evaporated, setting the maximum destruction value of A shares , and also hurting countless investors.
In the most tragic 2011 and 2012, China Ocean Shipping lost 10.5 billion yuan and 9.5 billion yuan respectively; in 2013, it was also subject to a delisting risk warning, and the stock became "*ST Ocean Shipping".
Now the feng shui is changing, the shipping industry cycle is coming again, China COSCO Ocean Control is popular again in the capital market, and returned to China Oceanwide's price range in 2008. The stock price hit a new high in 13 years, with a year-on-year increase of 103%, but it is still early to its peak period.
In 2015, China Ocean Shipping reorganized, and COSCO Ocean Shipping became the most important part of the core industry of COSCO Group, focusing more on container transportation business. According to the 2020 financial report, the container shipping business contributed about 97% of its revenue and 93% of its net profit, and is the core business of COSCO Shipping.
As of the end of 2020, COSCO Shipping operated a total of 278 international routes, 54 Chinese coastal routes, 80 Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River branch lines. The container fleet has a size of 536 ships and is affiliated to 352 ports in about 105 countries and regions around the world. The company's self-operated container fleet has a capacity of more than 3.07 million TEUs, still ranks third in the world.
cycle reversal, and its performance surged by 52 times in the first quarter
Judging from the performance in recent years, as the aviation industry entered a prosperous cycle, COSCO Shipping began to reversal in 2019, and its profitability continued to grow. Although the impact of the new crown epidemic after entering 2020 is not large, the company's revenue in 2020 reached 171.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.37%; and achieved a net profit of 9.927 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.76%.
After entering 2021, the company's performance became even more "blind": achieved revenue of 64.843 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 79.58%; and achieved net profit of 15.452 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52 times!
The reason for the outbreak of China COSCO Shipping's profit in the first quarter is mainly due to the continued improvement of the global container shipping market, and the company has achieved "both increasing volume and price". In terms of container capacity demand, as the epidemic is effectively controlled, China's manufacturing industry has accelerated its resumption of work and production. In addition, European and American countries have strong demand for inventory replenishment after the epidemic, and the cargo volume of many routes has increased significantly, resulting in high-level operation of container shipping prices.
Red Star Capital Bureau noticed that the average of China's export container freight rate comprehensive index (CCFI) in the first quarter of 2021 was 1960.99 points, a significant increase of 113.33% from the same period last year, and a 53.8% increase compared with the fourth quarter of 2020, especially the freight rates of Mediterranean routes and European routes rose sharply. The CCFI index trend in May showed that except for the weaker integrated transportation index of Southeast Asian routes, the CCFI index of European routes, the Eastern United States and the Western United States routes all increased significantly.
With the important indicator of the shipping industry Baltic dry bulk index (BDI), rising continuously and setting new highs repeatedly, COSCO Shipping, the "king of the cycle", seems to be back.
pictures According to the official website
, but "cycle stocks" have always needed to be careful, just like the " pig cycle " that the people are familiar with . Whenever a high-prosperity cycle comes, many shipping companies will drive full power to expand their capacity. The modern shipping industry has a huge ship that costs hundreds of thousands of tons, with a construction cycle of several years. As a result, when orders are placed in high-prosperity, they may catch up with recession when ships are delivered. Once the rhythm is wrong, it will be fatal. At the same time, the most important reason for this high shipping prosperity is the impact of the epidemic, which disrupted the rhythm of the global industrial chain and supply chain. Therefore, whether the high shipping prosperity can continue remains to be tested by the market.
Securities research report "release satellite", fund busy group
CITIC Construction Investment Transport Chief Analyst Han Jun released a research report on June 9, raising COSCO Shipping to 38 yuan per share, which means that although the company has risen so much, it still has more than 60% room for growth. This research report has attracted strong attention from the market.
As a researcher who has been following COSCO Ocean Control for a long time, Han Jun has previously released research reports on COSCO Ocean Control many times. Research report on January 5 this year showed that South Korean military proposed the target price of COSCO Shipping to 18.3 yuan, and raised the company's profit forecast to 43.3 billion yuan at the end of March. In April, South Korean military issued two more research reports, maintaining the expected profit value of COSCO Shipping's 43.3 billion yuan, and the corresponding target price was raised to 28 yuan.
However, due to the recent continued rise in shipping prices, the South Korean military once again significantly increased China COSCO Shipping's annual profit to 77.479 billion yuan on June 9. Such a "satellite" prediction also surprised the market. At the same time, the South Korean army raised its corresponding stock price from 28 yuan to 38 yuan. The reason for the Korean military is: "The demand side policy cycle is superimposed on inventory cycle , laying the foundation for the continuous increase in demand, the supply side handheld orders have increased, the long-term supply growth is limited, and freight rates continue to hit new highs, and the sustainability may far exceed market expectations."
may be affected by this. On June 10, COSCO Shipping closed at the daily limit.
and Han Jun came to a similar conclusion. Qu Yongzhong, a Northeast Securities transportation analyst, raised his annual profit expectation of COSCO Ocean Control to 65.812 billion yuan on May 11, with a target price of 24.9 yuan per share; on June 11, Qu Yongzhong once again raised his annual profit expectation of COSCO Ocean Control to 76.107 billion yuan, with a target price of 31.4 yuan per share.
Qu Yongzhong believes that due to the slowdown in the growth rate of new shipbuilding orders this year, the supply of transportation capacity remains a tense trend. The epidemic situation in many overseas countries is still severe, the ports are insufficient, and the problem of container port backlog is still serious, which continues to push container freight rates to continue to hit record highs. From the perspective of different routes, freight rates such as European routes, South American routes, Persian Gulf routes, and Australia-Xinjiang routes have all maintained an increase. "The combined influence of supply and demand factors in the collection price is expected to continue to rise. The high prosperity is expected to span the third quarter, and the annual profit forecast for COSCO Shipping Control will be further raised." If
is extended for a long time, the rise in COSCO Shipping's stock price has been accompanied by the collective voices of many securities companies all the way, and even raised the COSCO Shipping target price to reach the level of minor and 5 days major tweets, rising again and again, making people dazzled.
According to incomplete statistics from Red Star Capital Bureau, since May last year, more than 15 research reports from CITIC Construction Investment for COSCO Shipping have been released, which has run through the entire process of this round of stock price increase. Its target price has also been raised several times, rising from 5 yuan to a peak of 38 yuan. Northeast Securities released 5 research reports, and the target price also rose from 13.44 yuan to 34.8 yuan; Huachuang Securities released 5 research reports, and the target price rose from 14 yuan to 23.2 yuan; Oriental Securities released 4 research reports, and the target price rose from 19.36 yuan to 26.8 yuan.
As securities firms sing a lot, funds from various institutions are also flocking in, and gradually "funds are coming together". Judging from the holdings of at the end of the first quarter, various funds have increased their holdings in COSCO Overseas Control. At the end of the first quarter, Huaan Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Opportunities and Huaan Core Selection were all COSCO Overseas Control; and the "Huaxia Group" funds are even more in groups, including Huaxia Dividend Mixed, Huaxia Income Mixed, Huaxia Xinghua Mixed, Huaxia Strategy Selection, Huaxia Shanghai-Shenzhen 300, etc., all hold COSCO Overseas Control.
Interestingly, the top Huaan Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Machinery Fund manager Lu Qiuyuan, Huaxia Dividend Mixed Fund manager Lin Jing, and Huaxia Income Mixed Manager Zheng Yu are all women, and they have made a lot of money in the surge in China COSCO Shipping.
Where are those male fund managers? It is said that they are still hudding together to "drink alcohol and take medicine".
Red Star News Reporter Li Weiming
Editing Deng Lingyao
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