Economic Observer Reporter Liang Ji On October 20, the three major A shares indexes fell slightly again, and northbound funds sold net sales of more than 6 billion yuan for two consecutive trading days. Overnight, the three major U.S. stocks, , also fell across the board. Meanwhile, the euro zone CPI hit a record high in September, with major European stock indexes under pressure. Major global stock indexes performed poorly. Inflation in Europe and the United States is "high fever" and it may be difficult to relax in the short term. At the same time, the central bank of major economies also tightened monetary policy, and international institutions said it would damage the global economy .
CICC believes that overseas central banks collectively raise interest rates will produce a "shortdown resonance" effect, which may increase the risk of "synthesis fallacy" and "too overdoing". The so-called "synthesis fallacy" means that major central banks only raise interest rates significantly based on their own inflation data, but ignore the multiplier effect brought about by the simultaneous interest rate hikes in various countries. The latter may lead to a decline in global total demand beyond expectations and increase downward pressure on economic growth.
A stocks fell slightly to
As of the close of the 20th, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3035.05 points, down 0.31%; the Shenzhen Component Index was 10965.33 points, down 0.56%; the ChiNext Index was 2401.72 points, down 1.00%. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a total turnover of 796.242 billion yuan, of which the Shanghai stock market had a turnover of 340.091 billion yuan and the Shenzhen stock market had a turnover of 456.151 billion yuan.
Wind data shows that today's northbound funds sold net sales of 6.223 billion yuan, net sales for four consecutive trading days. The net sales of both exceeded 6 billion yuan in the last two trading days, and net sales of 20.408 billion yuan in the week. On the market, the electronics sector led the market, with rising by at 1.97%; power equipment leading the market, with a decline of 2.78%. Under the Shenwan first-level classification, more sectors fell, less rose, and 9 of them closed higher and 22 sectors closed lower. stocks , 1,796 stocks in the two markets closed up, and 2,907 stocks closed down.
General Manager of Furong Fund Research Department Lang Chengcheng said that it is still a high probability event to see that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike of 75bp in November in is still a high probability event, and the short-term overseas tightening risks still exist; however, from the perspective of the domestic equity market, the market has been in a cost-effective range, and positive factors have begun to emerge. In terms of economic data, the domestic manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in September, with the PMI of mid-September production at 50.1% rebounding 0.7% from the previous month. Structurally, although the manufacturing industry rebounded while the service industry rebounded, the supply rebounded and the demand was not strong, the overall trend has begun to improve. Secondly, the policy side is actively working to resolve real estate risks. On September 30, the central bank announced the reduction of the interest rate for the first personal housing provident fund loan. The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a refund for personal income tax for in exchange for housing. The subsequent weak real estate sales are also expected to stabilize.
European and American stock markets closed down
Sunday US stocks, Dow Jones Index was 30423.81 points, down 0.33%; S&P 500 Index was 3695.16 points, down 0.67%; Nasdaq Index was 10680.51 points, down 0.85%. As the stock market closed lower, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively. The 10-year U.S. bond yield returned to above 4%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis; the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 4.5%, which is usually seen as a signal that the U.S. economy is in recession.
On October 19th local time, Tesla released its third quarter financial report for 2022. Data shows that Tesla achieved revenue of US$21.454 billion during the period, and increased by 56% year-on-year, setting a new quarterly revenue high, but lower than analysts' expectations of US$22.09 billion. In terms of profit, Tesla's current net profit was US$3.292 billion, a year-on-year increase of 75%, higher than the expected level of US$3.2 billion.
On October 19th local time, the data of euro zone and the UK September consumer price index (CPI) were released. The final value of the euro zone's September CPI rose 9.9% year-on-year, with the previous value of 9.1%, and the expected 10%; the UK's September CPI rose 10.1% year-on-year, with the previous value of 9.9%, and the expected 10%. After the inflation data of
was released, European stock markets closed slightly lower. As of the close, the UK FTSE 100 index was 6924.99 points, down 0.17%; France CAC40 index was 6040.72 points, down 0.43%; Germany DAX index was 12741.41 points, down 0.19%.
Guangyin International believes that the ECB is ready for a more radical monetary tightening policy to cool inflation that soared to decades of highs.However, as price levels in the euro zone are expected to remain high for the remainder of 2022 and early 2023, this means liquidity will be further tightened, which puts resistance to the recovery of economic activity. European policymakers are expected to maintain a policy stance of monetary tightening, helping inflation levels cool down rapidly, and implement large-scale fiscal stimulus measures. hedges the adverse effects of monetary tightening on economic recovery, thereby achieving a soft economic landing and further consolidating the foundation of economic recovery. It expects that the eurozone economy will continue to grow at a moderate rate, with the growth rates of GDP in 2022 and 2023 respectively.
