Throughout the first half of 2019, almost all original manufacturers and agents except Japanese were in the MLCC inventory clearance stage. Please refer to the previous report of "International E-commerce Information" ( passive component has dropped by 20% but has not bottomed out! June may be more serious, relying on small terminals to save the market! )
MLCC "bottom-bottom rebound" time has arrived?
After more than half a year of "clearing inventory", MLCC prices have shown signs of "bottom-bottom-back". According to the news from Juheng.com on August 7, Taiwan's passive component manufacturers Guoju, Huaxinke and Heshentang all released revenues in July, with performance generally improving compared with June.
Guoju's revenue in July was 3.38 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 10%, with a cumulative revenue of 24.35 billion yuan in the first seven months, a year-on-year decrease of 39.3%; Huaxinke's revenue in July was 2.412 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 1.8%, with a cumulative revenue of 18.619 billion yuan in the first seven months, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%; Heshentang's revenue in July was 1.268 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 3.3%, with a cumulative revenue of 8.059 billion yuan in the first seven months, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%.
Guoju said that the increase in revenue in July was due to the rebound in terminal demand in the Asia-Pacific region. After destocking and original production cuts in active adjustment of inventory, inventory problems have gradually been alleviated. However, Guoju also said that the Sino-US trade dispute continues to be tense and expands, and it remains cautious and conservative in its performance and operational outlook.
Huaxinke Chairman Jiao Youheng recently had a conservative outlook for the future at the shareholders' meeting. He admitted that although the downstream "destocking" situation continues to improve, revenue in the second half of the year may still remain the same as in the first half of the year.
Heshentang also stated that the inventory of passive components market has been sold to a considerable extent in the near future, and will closely observe subsequent market development and demand, continue to strengthen the core competitiveness of products, increase sales of niche products, and maintain sports energy.
htmlOn the 18th, "International Electronic Commerce Information" connected several passive component agents, most of them said that they have not felt the obvious market motivation to "destock" on a large scale, but the inventory pressure has indeed improved compared with the beginning of the year. Due to the pressure of weak terminal demand and the original "shipment contract", the agent MLCC "bottomed and rebounded" later than the original.is entering high-end MLCC in a concentrated manner, and the competitive landscape may reshape
In terms of the global competitive landscape, the centralization of passive components brands is a major feature. Taking the MLCC with the most fierce price increase in stocks as an example, Murata, Samsung Motor , Sunsuodian, Guoju, AVX (Kyocera), TDK, the top six manufacturers occupy more than 70% of the global market share.
After the baptism of the "out of stock" and the precipitation of market rationality, the original factory strategy is also changing. In addition to the original Japanese manufacturers such as Murata, TDK, and Sunsuodian, which will shift their production capacity to the high-end market, manufacturers such as South Korea's Samsung Electric, Taiwan Guoju and mainland Fenghua Hi-Tech also plan to transfer their production capacity to the mid-to-high-end market.
According to previous reports from "International Electronic Commerce Information", since 2018, passive component giants began to add new mid-to-high-end MLCC production capacity, and the production time of the new production line will be concentrated between the end of 2019 and 2021.
As high-end MLCC production capacity continues to be released, it is expected that the supply cycle of high-end MLCC will be further shortened in the next two years, and the new market competition pattern may be reshaped by that time.
is affected by many factors, and 2019 is destined to be a year of ups and downs, and many analysts are not optimistic enough about their annual semiconductor revenue expectations. In the short term, as Japanese passive component manufacturers said, the impact of trade disputes, government policies, emerging technologies and the progress of applications has brought too many uncertain factors to the market this year, so it is difficult to judge the specific direction of capacitor prices and sales in the second half of the year. However, in the long run, the linkage of 5G commercialization and the linkage of surrounding industries such as automobiles, industry, medical care, and IoT will continue to benefit MLCC. At least in terms of usage, the demand for MLCC by 5G smartphones and pure electric vehicles has increased several times.
