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From February 24, the war between Russia and Ukraine began. Russia made rapid progress in the early stage and was approaching the city of Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.
Especially online news, such as the destruction of the Ukrainian National Guard Command, it makes people feel that the war will end in a short time or even 24 hours.
But today, there is still no news that Ukraine announced its surrender. Ukraine said that more than 3,500 Russian troops were killed and nearly 200 were captured, as if Russia was about to fall into the vast ocean of people's war.
So, how long will the war between Russia and Ukraine last? Let’s make a bold prediction!
(I)
Speed victory theory has gone bankrupt, and more than 48 hours have passed. After the Ukrainian military facilities imagined by some people were removed from Russia, the situation of directly raising the white flag and surrendering did not appear.
Not to mention anything else, even if the entire eastern part of Ukraine falls, even if it faces the capital of Ukraine, Kiev, Russia has no good idea.
This is a big city with an area of more than 800 square kilometers and a population of nearly 3 million. The city scale was the third largest in the Soviet Union and the first in Ukraine at that time.
In World War II , the last attack on the big city, Berlin, the capital of Germany, lasted for nearly 20 days from April 16 to May 2.
The German army at that time was at the end of its strength, and all experienced veterans had died. Moreover, there would not be so much international public opinion at that time, just bombarding the city. As a result, the Soviet army still paid the price of 80,000 deaths before taking Berlin.
(II)
Now Russia faces Kiev. Although air supremacy is in the hands of Russia, it is extremely difficult to not hurt civilians and accurately strike the army.
In fact, if a country's army has not collapsed, for example, the United States has fought Iraq twice, and the government collapsed and the army began to dispatch ground troops like headless flies.
But Ukraine is not yet at this point, and Russia cannot directly use an missile to kill Ukrainian President Zelensky, which is difficult to fight next.
However, even if it is not easy to fight, the time for Ukraine to surrender can be estimated, which is expected to be about two weeks.
Why do I give this time? In fact, we can refer to the performance of the Korean War volunteer army.
After the US military replaced MacArthur with Li Qiwei, he found that the volunteers attacked for up to 1 week each time, which is the so-called weekly offensive. Why?
Because the dry food and ammunition carried by the volunteers only took one week, the time was over, and even if the situation was good, it had to be withdrawn.
(III)
This actually applies to the battlefield in Ukraine. Russia is now targeted to clear and encircle at the same time. In the later stage, it will definitely be surrounded and not attacked.
As long as the materials entering Kiev are strictly controlled, especially military supplies, and then the ammunition depot is destroyed, even if the Ukrainian army guarding the city has 1 million, it will be useless.
There are no guns, no cannons, and no enemies to make it for you. How do you fight? No matter how strong the fighters are, they cannot rush to the front line with empty hands.
Moreover, even people can’t see the front line of Russia. They are all tanks , heavy weapons plus drones. The person who dares to show up here and dies before he sees clearly. What else can he fight?
However, given that modern warfare cannot massacre civilians or attack indiscriminately, Ukraine will not be timid in the short term, but it can only last for ten days and half a month, and it will be meaningless if it continues.
, especially the West led by the United States, does not send troops to intervene, and it is only a matter of time before surrender. The casualties and military expenditure of the Central Russia will also drop significantly.
As for whether it is right, let’s wait and see. When I saw it, I became a charlatan and was still a charlatan. Remember to come back and see it!
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