hype.
Since last year, the People's Liberation Army has frequently sent fighter jets and reconnaissance aircraft to surround Taiwan. Since the fall of this year, the frequency of reconnaissance aircraft entering the air defense identification zone has increased rapidly. There are many speculations on this on the island. Now that the US election is over, Biden and will be sworn in on January 20 next year. Some Taiwanese media speculated that the PLA's operation to occupy Dongsha Island may have started after Biden took office, "became the first Taiwan Strait crisis in President Biden's office."
Taiwan China Times Electronic News said on the 16th that the earliest judgment on the PLA might occupy Dongsha Island was an exclusive report issued by Kyodo News in May this year. At that time, the analysis believed that this was a limited military operation, which had a shocking effect on the United States and also had a lesson effect on Taiwan. The war was short and the scale was small, so it would not be expanded into high-intensity conflict, and the international impact was easier to deal with. Recently, Japanese international relations scholar Kogasawara also wrote an article to echo this view, believing that Beijing continues to use the language of "punishing Taiwan" and intensifies "military intimidation" against Taiwan. It will not just forget it, and it will inevitably be the precursor to some actions. However, it is unlikely that the PLA will land and occupy Taiwan at present, and one of the other options is “to put pressure on Dongsha Island and directly occupy it.”
Dongsha Island
China Times Electronic News said that there are currently ready-made facilities such as airports and houses on Dongsha Island, and there is almost no possibility of defense, but it has a strategic role in the mainland's South China Sea policy. Dongsha is more than 300 kilometers away from the mainland, and more than 400 kilometers away from Taiwan and Philippine . Judging from the route of PLA military aircraft around Taiwan in recent months, except for a few brief crosses of the "Taiwan Strait Central Line", most of them use reconnaissance aircraft to enter the air defense identification zone in the southwest waters of Taiwan and then return to Guangdong. The route is approximately in the middle of Dongsha Island and Taiwan. Moreover, with as many as fifty or sixty high-intensity reconnaissances in the past three months, "I'm afraid it's not just used as intimidation against Taiwan, but will inevitably collect various relevant information frequently, which is sufficient to ensure an efficient military operation that is lightning-proof and unblocked."
As for the way to seize Dongsha Island, the article speculated that "because it is very important to complete quickly, the method of blockade at sea and air is not advisable. Assault landing and amphibious landings may be carried out to force the garrison to surrender." After the fait accompli, both the United States and Taiwan will be unable to save it. In addition to teaching the Taiwan authorities a lesson and warning the US, the military operation can also push the radar surveillance frontier along the coast of Guangdong to the South China Sea for more than 300 kilometers, and can counter the US reconnaissance aircraft's approaching reconnaissance of Guangdong in advance. More importantly, the recovery of Dongsha Island can be regarded as an important symbol of the mainland's process of promoting the "peaceful reunification".
Since this year, Dongsha has become a sensitive nerve in cross-strait relations. In May, Kyodo News reported that "the mainland may implement the military exercises and training that will be planned for Dongsha Island in August", the Taiwan Marine Corps immediately sent troops to garrison under the name of "transfer training". In September, Democratic Progressive Party’s “legislator” Wang Dingyu revealed that the Taiwan military was suspected of being surrounded by mainland maritime militia ships for more than 60 hours after detecting the Dongsha Islands. He claimed that this was a "major crisis", which once caused panic on the island. The Taiwan "Coast Guard Administration" then clarified that only 6 merchant ships passed through Dongsha Island in three days and were never surrounded. In October, after the military charter flight of Lirong Airlines from Taiwan to Dongsha was asked to return by Hong Kong, Taiwan's "Deputy Chief of Staff" Li Tingsheng inspected Dongsha's defense. This also brought back rumors that the mainland had taken over Dongsha Island. Some comments believe that the mainland's capture of Dongsha Island is "not very meaningful", but Yan Cairen, former commander of Dongsha Guard Area, bluntly stated that taking over Dongsha Island is too easy for the PLA's military strength, and if nearly 500 Taiwanese officers and soldiers on the island are captured, it will directly impact the hearts of the people of Taiwan.
Taiwan media noticed that in response to the issue of "cross-strait relations tensions, whether the mainland will introduce a national unified law", Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said on the 16th that it will take various necessary measures to firmly promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations, promote the process of peaceful reunification, and defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. She criticized the DPP politicians for clamoring to attack mainland nuclear power plants. The DPP authorities have acquiesced to such crazy remarks, fully exposing the evil nature of a very small number of people losing their conscience and trampling on the bottom line of civilization.
Source: Global Network
